Big Bang ending to a good year

Thanks to the monster move I am finishing the year with a much-needed bang. Hesitant as I am to wager on Aqueduct's quirky inner-dirt-track, I could not ignore 'move' opportunities on today's card: Coach Butts in the sixth, rallied for second at 9-1 and Personal Good (brilliant ride Mr. Morales!), sixth race, rewarded me with $71, $24, $12 and a $169 daily double.

Interestingly, the eighth race odds-on favorite showed a move and won for fun.

I'm glad I ended my holiday sabbatical.

An unrelated aside: The closest thing to an automatic bet at Fairgrounds has been trainer Steven Asmussen. At some point he boasted a 54% winning percentage. Apparently he's moved several horses to the Big A. He's already two for three at decent prices. A word to the wise…

Happy New Year. Clarity, wisdom, restraint and good handicapping in 2009!

Look to the charts, for longshots

How do you pick a $50 winner without the move? Look to the charts. Having been at a loss to find a good 'mover' at Fairgrounds in the past few days, I was getting restless. While investigating the 12/20 card I noticed Geniver in the first race. She had been disqualified at Churchill on November 26, elevating my 'move' choice Griding Miss to first at $43.60 and a healthy exacta.
A review of the result chart showed that Nadisheko, entered from the same race, had suffered significantly from Geniver's antics--enough so, that I wheeled Navi in the daily double. She romped, paying $50.60.

Happy Holidays to all, and better handicapping in 2009.

Oh! What could have been

I can't be angry at her. She's only an apprentice. But I have, indeed, opened a payment due bill for Jaqueline Davis in the amount the gazillion dollars she cost me on Joe Corrigan in the seventh, today, at Aqueduct. He probably wins. No doubt, the horse finishes at least second at
22-1–if she finds a way through the hole on the rail. (Truthfully, Morales on Phobia, tightened it up on her.) Across the board wagers, a part-wheel pick-three and a wheeled daily double went down the drain, as a result. It's alright, Jackie. I'll hold it on file, just in case. After all, I caught your first winner in NY. Did I mention Corrigan was a monster move?

Same Selection, Different Reasons

At 11:50 a.m., well before the NYRA 'Talking Horses' broadcast, I singled Por Favor in the first race at Aqueduct in doubles and several pick-3s. The reason? He was a solid move horse from move trainer Contessa, riding his new favorite (44% in the money) jock Pablo Morales. At the same time, I back-wheeled Higher Place the move horse in the second-part of the daily double.

Imagine my surprise that the prestigious Andy Serling on the NYRA show also picked Por, but for different reasons. He expected the horse to speed-pop the field. Which he did. $18.40 to win and a guaranteed double--at least. Congrats, Andy!

Great minds think alike--for different reasons.

By the way, Higher Place completed the $140 double, setting me up for a rare pick-three win with the favorite and two other horses. I don't typically pick three. But with back-to-back 'move' horses it was a given. Missunitednations completed that bet, for $670. Love this game

PS–Jockey Garcia ought to be ashamed of himself for the phantom 'foul claim.'

Lifesaver, 'Yet Again.' $79

I will state, flatly, that no other handicapping method has proven as reliable for me as the monster move method. Not even the Beyer numbers. Understand, I did not create it. While I accept the logic and premise, I am still learning the fine points of the system. But, the results are remarkable.

I spend infinite hours re-reading the source material in the hope that someday I might be able to confidently bet more than $10 on it's typical $30+ winner. Ultimately, I may have to settle for $2 and $5 wagers on these nags.

It happens, but I rarely completely overlook a 'move horse.'

So, you can understand why I was looking for a bridge to jump off after the open length win of 20-1 shot Tainted Love in the fifth at Aqueduct. It was right there on the DRF page; clear as day. I was livid. But, somehow, soothed my pain with the knowledge that trainer Gullo has had a rough time winning. Nevertheless, I had the car warmed up.

NYRA tracks tend to be difficult for move horses. The racing gods smiled on me; delivering two moves in the featured eighth race at the Big A. Still smarting from my wounds, I played Sentimental Union in doubles. Then I bet impossible long shot Yet Again (38-1)across the board and boxed the exacta with the two.

Payoffs of $79 to win and a $443 exacta, go a long way to making me feel better. No jumping today. Add Karl Grusmark to my move trainers list. Well ridden, Bocachica! You are lifesavers.

All a 'Tizzy' all over again

One of the most memorable examples in my book is Slew's Tizzy. He was responsible for my biggest score in 2007 in the Coolmore Lexington Grade 2 at Keeneland. This 'monster mover' paid $83 to win, finishing ahead of another move horse to return a $1,000 exacta.

Well, guess who showed up , today, with another move at Hollywood Park in the Grade 3 Native Diver Handicap? Yep, I didn't get too excited; being hesitant to bet West Coast tracks where the emphasis is always on speed. But, I couldn't ignore the colt, either. This time he was only going off at 7-1. So, I semi-loaded up.

Results? It was deja-vu, all over, again. He won like the only horse in the race for trainer Doug O'Neill and jockey Rosario, The payoffs weren't as large, but I bunched win, place, show, exacta and a $102 daily double.

Maybe, it's time to take the system West. It works everywhere else.

Worthwhile horseracing blog: Green but Game

While I don't have room in my layout for a link list, one of the most impressive sites out there is Green but Game, written by fellow NYRA fan Dana Byerly.  Check it out for oodles of info and enjoyable reading. Way to go Dana.

Formulator, a superb product…but

Until now, I haven't mentioned a thing about the relatively new Daily Racing Form product Formulator Web. Let me say up front that as a major fan of 'the form' my reaction is merely: Bravo! Superb! Hoo-Hah! Way to go!

My enthusiasm is particularly profound, because I am a die-hard Macintosh user. Until this version there was no Formulator for my population. So, for years I have been downloading a pdf version of the past performances. Unless, I am going to the track, I do my handicapping right on the computer screen. No printout, necessary.

Therein lies my one, small complaint. With Adobe Acrobat, I can mark-up my computerized version of the pdf–a valuable tool when you handicap two tracks and, at least 18 races a day. No such luck with Formulator.

Hopefully, the powers that be will consider including a similar tool with the next update. It doesn't even have to save the marks.

Other than that, I give Formulator four stars out of five.

Beyond the last running line

My pursuit of 'monster move' mastery has caused me to read DRF past performances more completely. Like most systems, it begins with evaluation of the last race a horse has run. By definition this race is always less than stellar. So, I have to dig deeper to justify a wager.

For instance, the last race line for Dirty Water Dog in Aqueduct's ninth race, yesterday shows he finished 10th, nearly 20 lengths behind, as an odds-on favorite. He was claimed by trainer Chad Brown off of a win, in the race before. Closer pp investigation shows these virtues:

• 'Dirty' won 3 out of seven starts, with 1 third
• He had the second best Beyer at the distance and the surface
• His odds, before yesterday, were never longer than 5-1
• Importantly, trainer Brown won 42% when he legged up jockey Lezcano

The results? Dirty paid $14, $8.7, $6 completing a $95 daily double, catching the other move horse in the race who went off at nearly 40-1, for a $388 exacta.

The move is a monster--with benefits.

60-1 wheel at Big A; 22-1 win at Church

So, what's to say? I've been telling anyone who will listen. Matter of fact, I'm going to stop talking. As soon as I let you know that in the eighth double at Aqueduct, today, I back-wheeled Good and Loud. Yup. It cost me $6. Horse was 60-1
I had no opinion in the eighth. That's right. Back-wheeled. Despite his obvious shortcomings, Good and Loud,was also a classic 'monster move.' As the major promoter of the system, I had no choice. Since I already was going to make a mint if he won, I bet this long-shot to place and show. (Knowing Mike Sedlacek is a move trainer and that Erick Lopez can ride, sealed the deal). He won by open lengths. Look at the chart. Double paid $417 for $2.

At about the same time, at Churchill Downs, move horse Grinding Miss was paying off on my across the board bet in the seventh at Churchill Downs. Not being a fan of jock Orlando Mojica, I originally had crossed this horse off my plays list until I saw trainer Montgomery's outstanding 40% record when he uses him. Thanks DRF.

The move is a monster when it hits!

Reading is FUNdamental at $53

Anyone reading this blog knows that I am a fan of 'the Form.' One of it's best features is the trainer/jockey stat line, for every horse entered in a race. This info has been key to innumerable winners––Monster Move, et al.

In Aqueduct's second race, yesterday, Barefoot Babe, trained by Edward Allard was coming from Philadelphia sprints to run on the Big A turf for the first time. Jockey Rajiv Maragh (one of my favorites) was named to replace scheduled speed rider CC Lopez.

Allard is notorious for ' putting one over' when he comes to NYRA tracks.
Importantly, the j/t line showed he scores with 23% first time-turfers, and 24% dirt to turf starters--both at generous returns Additionally, in two starts the horse went off at around 4-1.

The evidence required significant wagering action. I complied.

Result: Barefoot paid $52.50 to win. A $2 daily double back-wheel returned $144 the exacta with the favorite paid $238. Across the board wagers were gravy. And, I was insured of a winning day.

All you gotta do is read.

According to the NYRA replay show, Andy Sperling gave this one out. Way to go!

Don't listen to me..

Boom! Little things mean a lot. Like knowing what to look for in the Daily Racing Form. Congratulations to Jacqueline Davis, daughter of famed New York rider Robbie Davis for her first career win on Blue Hill Bay at 64-1, trained by move trainer Scott Everett.

And, congratulations to me, too, for noticing that the horse showed--not one-but several monster moves in her past performances. That lead me to a race in July when she won at 11-1 (off of another move). Yep, I had her--to win and in the exacta. Had she been a more noted rider, I would have had her across the board several times. (Note to self: My four contenders in the race generated a $14,000 superfecta. Make sure to take a look). But, I ain't crying.

I keep telling folks about this move being a long-shot player's dream. It's OK with me if they don't listen.

Monster System, working wonders

Only two things surpass the excitement of your selected 93-1 shot opening up on the field in the stretch by two lengths : If the horse wins or runs second. As it is Dutch Striker held on for third, in the last race at Churchill downs, today. I was alive in the double, but happily collected multiple tickets on the $24.80 he paid to show. It was easy to do. In fact, I wrote a book about it.

In the last few weeks, several of these selections won–at monstrous odds, including Buonissimo, $69.80; Unbridled Danger. $38; Stayawaystella, $30;Executive Chief, $28.80; The Mizzus, $47; and even Fleet Valid, at a paltry $12.40. The Monster Move System is working like the 'golden goose' it is.

While, I haven't solved all of it's wonders, I have gained enough knowledge of the system to have these horses, at least, across the board. I am also developing a great deal of that elusive patience; preferring to save wagering for 'move' races.

Daily doubles, are a regular hit. It is only a matter of time before I string together pick threes using these horses as the key. No rush, though.

These opportunities happen, nearly everyday. I am taking it slow.

King of the Breeders Cup ($2 variety)

To quote Andy Beyer, "I am king of the world." In other words, I had a tremendous Breeders Cup Day. Moreover, I adhered to my own restrictive wagering guidelines in the process. But, this time, I actually found betting opportunities by handicapping.

Not only did I take down the Classic exacta, I scored a $10 win bet on Raven's Pass. The selections were made from their European Beyer figures (adjusted by -12). Both horses ran (turf) figures comparable to Curlin's 111.

In the second race at Santa Anita, a simple $2 win and place bet on Desert Code returned $106. At Belmont, one of two Monster Move horses ran second at 63-1 yielding $43 to place, $13.60 to show and a $334 exacta with the favorite. Not bad for a starting bank of $40. Add it up.

I wonder how the experts did? Get ready for the polytrack surface assault and excuses!

One complaint. NYRA's internet wagering operation apparently wasn't up to the challenge of handling the extremely large volume of the world series of thoroughbred racing. It was a frustrating technological mess. C'mon NYRA get your act together!

Thank God, the live operators are still around. Go, girls–and guys.

Breeders Cup 2008: On automatic

For those of you who missed it,here--with edits--is a reprint of my Breeders Cup strategy--and why.

In 30+ years of playing the game, I have found a few absolute truths:

1. The most impossible races to handicap are the worst horses in the world.
2. The second most impossible races to handicap are the best horses in the world.

Don't listen to me. After all the seminars, the forums, the analysis and the hype just look at the results of the professionals--and, their list of excuses.

On the two Breeders' Days, I will look for value in the surrounding cards. I will play the Cup Races, casually and enjoy them. I plan to exacta box 27 in all the races and make a few win bets on second favorites.

It's and easy game and an easy day.

Re-energized

Thoroughbred handicapping is a never ending story. Fact is, the more you know the less you know.

Some things which should be obvious are not. For instance, every time you make a wager, you are asserting--on paper (of the green variety)-- that you know something that will return a profit. Just how many times a day are you really so smart?

The challenge? Limit wagers to races where you have a genuine, provable opinion. In a game with so many variables, it's tough. But I am convinced this is key to success.

For the last few months, I have suspended betting to reacquaint myself with basic handicapping. An evaluation of my wagers showed that I was overlooking 'easy money' in pursuit of longer shots. I guess it's understandable because I am so excited about the longshot system I am promoting. However, human beings can walk and talk at the same time, so I had to prove it. Stay tuned. I'm on my way back.

Hole in my goal

Handicapping will keep you humble.
In the search for a viable sister system to the 'monster move' I have discovered a hole in my game. It's not the first, probably won't be the last–merely the latest. They appear at random periods, until I notice. If I can ever plug all these holes up at the same time, maybe I'll achieve my $20 wagering goal.

This time, I have realized that I handicap more successfully when I don't consider price in the early stages of my evaluation. As a result, I don't cash in on virtual 'exotic' gimmes; the kind that pay $30 for two standouts in a race. Typically, they are two outstanding Beyer figures–one is odds on, the other is 6-1 or better.

Although I am usually a straight bettor when involved with the move. I have to realize that there's nothing wrong with an 8-1 or more exacta on two standouts.

Note to self: Plug it up. Suspend betting until I do.

'Suicide kings' create a milllonaire

A jury of his peers wouldn't convict trainer Howard Tesher for the murder of Shaun Bridgemohan after the fiasco on Baron Von Tap in the seventh race at Saratoga on Travers Day. I know I wouldn't . Venerable trainer Kiaran Mcloughlin might also have a case for maiming jock Mike Luzzi. for his ride on Teide.

The race was won by improbable 88-1 Slambino, setting up a $1 million superfecta.

WTF? These two, supposedly professional pilots, tore through the opening quarters of a 11/6 mile turf race in :45 and 1:09. Maybe, it was something personal between them. Surely, they couldn't have been trying to win at that pace. Whatever it was, I have now downgraded the abilities of both jocks in my handicapping.

The 'suicide kings' have one grateful punter who should--at least--buy them both dinner.

LeSuprise at Le Spa

He must be giggling all the way to the bank. Julien LeParoux, I mean. Of all the jock performances at this year's Saratoga meet, LeParoux must be getting the most satisfaction. After all, his stint at NYRA a while ago, didn't provide him with enough business to stay in New York.

He had to move his tack to New Jersey to earn a decent living and a respected reputation. Once finding his niche, the jock is a 'must include' on almost every ride on the Jersey circuit. How satisfying for his fans to finally get good prices at the Spa. As of today, he is winning at just above 15%, a percentage point above formidable Edgar Prado. He is also a significant factor in the return of trainer Wayne Lukas to the winners' circle. You go Julien.

Why Handicap?

Why do you handicap races?
Seems a silly question with an all too obvious answer. 'To pick winners, stoopid!'
I've found there's more than one answer depending on your goal. Are you really handicapping for winners or contenders? Or are you trying to hit the pick six? Maybe most of your plays are exactas–a different scenario.

While it may seem like the same effort, each goal requires a different set of parameters. And, a different set of eyes.

Before handicapping, I look over a track's complete card. I throw out maiden claimers, first-starter fields, races shorter than 6 furlongs and longer than 11/8.

Then I scan the qualifying races for the monster move. If I find a few and can construct a play, I'm done.

No moves? I seek lone speed, or a strong second-finisher. If the price promises to be too short, I go back and evaluate the rest of the field for a possible exacta play.

This is three different ventures. In each case, my intention influences what I find.

Should I want to play a multiple race bet like a pick three, four or six I have to spend additional time evaluating the morning line favorites in each leg of the bet. Then, peruse a second level of contention, etc.

In this quick fix world, it would be nice to think that one handicapping effort will yield all the information you need for every wager. My experience indicates it doesn't happen.

Branch: Just 'Beautiful' at 40-1

In a previous post, I questioned the decision of apprentice Kyle Branch in a race he rode my long shot selection third instead of a win. At the time, I promised to send him an invoice. Today, he paid the invoice in full with a luscious ride on monster move horse Beautiful LIfe, who paid $82. Coupled with another monster–Silver Babe–the exacta paid more than $400. The three moves in the race finished together for a $2000 triple return. Way to go Mr. Branch.

What is all the more puzzling is that 'Beautiful' had already run an improved last race off of his previous race move. How the public could let this gimme' get away is remarkable. Oh, that's right. They just looked at the Beyer numbers.

I guess nobody is reading my book.

FLUSH DAY CREATES NIRVANA
There is an emotion that's indescribable to folks who don't play horses. The closest I can get to a description is elation–maybe nirvana. All the pieces fall together; when unexpectedly you understand that in the next few minutes a long shot horse, that should be obvious to anyone is going to win the next race.

Only experience stops you from mortgaging your house, selling your clothes and belongings to wager on the good thing. Borrowing Base, 8-1, in Saratoga's eighth was that kind of horse for me. He won. My wager was more than usual. I am proud of myself for the control.

Why I am a $2 bettor: Monster Move version

After a short wagering sabbatical, during which I did lots of study, review and self-evaluation, I finally made my first bets at Saratoga. My records showed that I do well there on Mondays. No explanation. Just the fact.

The $60 in my telephone wagering account was hungry for action. But, I was determined to approach the card with the same patience I display at the blackjack and poker tables. Besides, during this meet they have rolling daily doubles–my favorite exotic bet. Need to take it slow.

There were two monster moves that jumped off the pages at me: Like Now, 3rd and Cagey Girl, 4th. Like Now was repeating a previous trainer winning tact but was up against a tough field. Additionally, the short odds were unappealing. So, just three token double bets.

So, I concentrated on Cagey Girl, who looked like she might get an easy lead on turf. She was 23-1. Rider Mike Luzzi–one of the few jocks I believe has a clock in his head–slowed the pace down enough for Cagey to win wire-to-wire at $47.6, $17, $8.4 completing a $127 double. Wager? $6 Win, Place. Thanks Mike!

The move is a monster when it connects.

Only one other bet today thanks to recognition of a trainer move by another Mike that returned $$41 to win.

Done for the day. Making out a withdrawal slip, right now.

Why I am a $2 bettor: The rant

If you're so @#$% smart...

Here's the kind of thinking I do, on sabbatical, while reviewing my wagering history:

I have always been amazed at how people who 'play' the thoroughbred 'game' are willing to be wrong. By definition, we are wrong most of the time. Yet, that doesn't stop us. Maybe it should, at least, slow us down.

How many times each day, each week, are you comfortable with being wrong at a cost of whatever your wagering unit is? It's different for each of us. I am still learning to wait for the right odds. My target is 9-1, but I'll happily accept 6-1.

When I am in Vegas, every other year or so, I can follow the blackjack rules to-the-letter. More often than not, I am happy with the outcome. Although I could never call myself a 'player' I hold my own in online poker by sitting and waiting for a superior hand. It may take 10 rounds. But, I do it. As a result, I usually have a seat at the final table.

I am searching for a similar approach to thoroughbred handicapping. The one thing I do know is that I still make too many bets.

Think you don't? Let's take the example of Curlin, admittedly the best horse in the world. Did you bet that he was going to win his first turf start, a few week ago? Based on what? Other than his reputation, there was nothing to suggest he should win. It was a bad bet.

We are offered bad betting situations every day. Success is directly tied to avoiding them. Translated for the hard core: If you don't know why you are betting and couldn't explain it–in detail–to a 5-year-old, maybe you shouldn't bet.

Nice idea; tough to do. Now, if I can just remember this rant when I start betting again.

Well-timed Break

Perfect timing on my wagering sabbatical. Mother Nature continues to wreak havoc by soaking Saratoga. And, I've been able to update the horseplayerunited.com website. Why not take a look.

Additionally, I've decided to paper test a reverse 6-2-1 betting method with the monster move system. That is; 1 betting unit to win, 2 betting units to place, and 6 units to show--when the horse is more than 15-1 at post. If the selection is average (9-1), I'll bet 1 unit to win and 3 units to place. At a glance, it seems this might be a perfect solution.

Weather scratches at sloppy Saratoga ruined prices on two possible moves. At Monmouth Park, Sonic Boom ran third at 16-1 to pay $7.

Wednesday Monster Moves

It's That Time, Again

The excuse for it, of course, is "I'm only human." This is one of those periods of time, when I zig where I should zag, and vice versa. It's called a losing streak. It happens to every horse player. On paper, I should be making a mint. In actuality my sync is off.
I know from experience that it will change. I just have to be patient (grrrr). This means no bets until things re-align and I'm sure about my decision making.

Naturally, during my abstinence I can expect to watch (as I am writing this) a lead-pipe selection to win by open lengths for an $80 exacta with the only other horse I like in the race (grrrr). Tough-noogies. In the long run, I'll be happy I took this break.

It will save me money and hopefully teach me something. And, Saratoga is a week away. Better times, ahead.

SECOND TRY FOR HERTLER AT 17-1 FALLS JUST SHORT
(see previous post) Rock Key in today's ninth nearly got there. Keep plugging, John.

Close, no cigar

Monster Move trainer John Hertler hoisted '1 for 64' apprentice Berrios Cruz on 7-year-old Classic Marilyn at 40-1 in Belmont's seventh race–an attempt to make his meet with one big score. The mare lead every step, but the last to pay $31.20 to place and $15.60 to show. She lost by one-half a length. Good try!

Maximizing the Monster

Now that I've proven–at length–that the Monster Move System works, I can turn my attention to the most important part of the handicapping equation: wagering.

Picking long-shot winners is fine. How do you bet them for the best return on investment? Until now, and because of the prices I am getting, I have been wagering equal amounts to win and place, and even show (when odds are more than 15-1)

Part of the challenge will be to make fewer bets by fine-tuning my selections.

However, with all the exotic wagering opportunities offered at the tracks (daily double, pick three, pick four, etc. ) I plan to research the best method for maximizing my average 9-1 winners in those pools.

Can't Lose, they say

If your game is only about making money, the statisticians claim you can't lose. Then, they trot out a wagering system that proves as long as you bet the same kind of horse and have a large enough bankroll, winning is a foregone conclusion.

The basis for this folly is setting a dollar goal per-bet, add losses from non-winners and according to the odds of your next selection wager enough to win back losses and the stated profit. I'm sure it works on paper.

Somehow, though, I can't fathom making a $334 win bet after losing four or five in a row. God forbid the new wagering amount should this bet lose.

Another new variable

The folks at Daily Racing Form (DRF) have added a new variable to the paper. Race shape or pace ratings must be something the fans have lobbied for.

They will probably an important part of the handicapping process. But, somehow, I must have missed the press release about what they are and how to use them. When I find out, I'll share.

The flash player instructional on reading the form has not yet been updated to include the new data.

Suggestion to DRF. How about doing a tutorial before–or simultaneously to–including new features?

Develop focus for daily play

One main reason handicapping remains an art and not a science is the infinite number of variables that impact each and every race––recency, class, speed, trainer intention etc. etc. To tame the wild beast experts, logically (sic), introduced an overload of more variables---track bias, trips, variants, bounce. et al.
Even the Beyer numbers are only as good as a horses' trip, trouble, surface, bias etc.

To quote 'Family Guy's' Peter Griffith, '"Two words. C'mon!."

My point? No single approach to the game works enough to rely on.

It would seem, to win consistently, the player must narrow his or her scope down to a very few factors or situations. Then, concentrate wagering in those spots.

For example, handicap only horses that finished second last time, or beaten favorites. Maybe, sprints on dirt only in nw 1 Allowance races. Or, as suggested by the book 'How Will Your Horse Run Today?,' focus--only-- on the top two favorites.

Wherever you focus, digest it. Refine it. Master it. Once that's done, return to your specialty or slowly add one other approach.

In any event, it beats trying to be all things to all races.

An Easy Dilemma

Two moves in the second at Monmouth against a 3-5 shot. What to do? Oh, that's right Pedro Cotto is riding Fly Pass at 8-1. No problem. Balloon Man to the hoop pays $18.40 (See yesterday's post).

You heard it here, again!

It's only because I followed my own rules (take a break after a winning day) that I'm not upset. As I reported on June 13 and repeated yesterday, Pedro Cotto at Monmouth is winning with huge long-shots and requires a second look, automatically. In race two he won by open lengths with a 38-1 shot. He won the fourth at only 3-1, ran second in the sixth at 13-1 and ran second in the ninth, at a paltry 5-1. Mr. Cotto is currently Mr. Balloons.

Straight Out of the Book

I have never been a fan of jockey Joe Bravo. Our souls don't mix. I bet him he loses. I don't, he wins. I now have an especially large bone to pick with him after he was dq'd on favorite in Monmouth's 4th.
He was the leadoff to a pick three where i singled picture-book 'move' horse Jeterina (16-1) in the fifth race with four horses in the sixth. including $75 winner Libertarian ridden by Pedro Cotto.(A June 13 post, here, alerted players to Cotto's long-shot knack.)

Fortunately I had both winners in straight betting. It's not the same.

At Belmont, 'move' winners included:
Unique Citizen, $15.60
Watch My Lass, second at 22-1
Shuffling Madness, 7-1 rallied too late

All of these winners are straight out of the "Monster Move System" book. A $2 win bet on Jeterina, could have paid for the cost of the download. Enough, said.

Note: Follow Digital Age in NY (39-1, yesterday)

Good Moves, Monster Alert, Pace Move

No good deed goes unpunished. Took Sunday off to lend assistance where necessary. And, it cost me. At Belmont these 'move' horses performed well:

Fourth: Victory Assured won at 6-1
Sixth: Western Slang ran second at 14-1
Eighth: Blue Devil Bel won at almost 7-1

Oh well, guess I'll get my rewards in heaven!

Monster Alert
Wise Pitch (84-1) is rounding to form off of three consecutive moves. If trainer Araya, changes anything-especially jocks-look out!

The Other Move
There is another running line move that I frequently play. This one has been better publicized, and is easier to follow. It identifies superior last-race pace runners.
Here is the criteria:

• Last race has to be within 20 days.
• At the pre-stretch call, qualifier must have been within one-length of the leader
• Pace time must be less than :46.2 for 6 furlongs,
less than 1:11 for one mile
less than 1:12 for a mile and an eighth
• Horse can not have won race before last

Prices for this play run about 4-1. Usually a good performance. (Note: California tracks excluded because of the emphasis on speed). We will definitely keep track of these as well as 'monsters' at horseplayerunited.com

The Odds Are With You

Reportedly, many professional players envision the running of a potential race over and over to determine how often a selection should win. All things being equal, this gives them enough information to construct an odds line. At post time, if the selection goes off at or more than the line it's a bet. Otherwise, a pass.

Nice idea. But. I don't have that kind of time and I'm not sure I would enjoy the game as much with the necessary extra work. I'm still trying to find enough time to really examine daily result charts.

I know that favorites are created by the public--usually based on a top Beyer fig, a good recent performance, or public selector. I am willing to look behind the obvious--trouble lines, previous wins at the distance, etc.
Still, unless Secretariat is running against the average claimer, I never understand a reason for odds of 3-5, 0r 4-5.

I set my target odds at 6-1. If my selection is a 'move,' I'm confident when odds are around 9-1 (the average). Selections longer than 15-1 require a smaller bet.

What are your good odds? However you arrive at a figure, at least have an idea of what odds are typical for your play.

Good Moves 6/19

Acquired Cat BEL race 7 won at 11-1 (much the best)
Oggies Way MTH race 7 second at 12-1, paying $13.40 to place
Nadeshiko CHU race 9 won at 6-1

Monster System available, finally

OK folks, it's finally done. A companion website to this blogspot is now open and prepared to offer details of the Monster Move System I so readily use to pick long shot winners. The address is horseplayerunited.com.

When i started this blog it was merely to keep record of my own handicapping experiences. I never expected to sell anything, except, maybe logo items.

As I posted, I began to realize how much this one system was working for me. I decided to share. To that end, I put together an 84-page booklet to demonstrate the system. It was a lot of work. You can now download it for a $30 fee at horseplayerunited.com on the BLOG page. One $30 winner and the book pays for itself.

Contents of the rest of the site are under consideration and construction. I plan to keep track of 'move' winners on the HITS page; take a look at 'moves' that didn't work on the MISSES page.

I expect the rest of the site to focus on other workable methods (windows) of approaching the game, particularly for the $2 bettor. Please visit and give me your suggestions and opinions. Send your e-mails to mover@horseplayerunited.com.

That said, let me answer a few questions before you ask.

Yes, It is based on information readily available in the Daily Racing Form. As I've said before, DRF is my bible.

No. The system is not a be all, end all. It is one approach to picking long-shots.

Yes. Every example in the book was selected before the race.

No. It is not a quick-fix system. Once you identify the key factor, you still have to use your own judgment to solidify the play. (More on that in future posts).

Yes. I have already started another list of the system's successes. If there is enough response, I would like to make it a focus of the site's forum.

Yes. This blog continues.

Elusive Intentions

INTENTION is the great equalizer; the one ingredient in the handicapping process that remains elusive for every system--speed, condition or form-based.

Every horse in a race is not trying to win. "I've got him pointed for a race next week, so let him run his own race." Such a horse is just out for exercise. Maybe, it's a workout to find how the horse will run with or without the blinkers or new equipment. Or the wound is healing slower than expected. Sometimes, it's merely a jock who doesn't know that today is 'go' day.

Main problem is, the wagering fans don't know who is not trying--until after they plunk the money down.

In essence, we are all trying to handicap the intentions of the barn and the trainer. Today, I saw a 50-1 shot that could have run no worse than second if the jock had exerted the slightest effort. Unfortunately, it's not uncommon. I'm not suggesting it's illegal, just a natural part of the game.

It's the reason I ignore tips of any kind. The closest I came to hitting one was from an owner who was laying down $5,000 on the win end. I collected my $30 place bet. He lost. But, at least the horse tried.

Here are a few who were well-intended, today:

SMOKEYJONESSUTTON, second at 17-1 in Churchill's fourth
ROCK LOBSTER, second at 9-1 in Belmont's second
MISTICAL PLAN, third at 25-1 in Belmont's ninth

Long player survival: Use the favorite

I have always been and always will be a long shot player. It is part of my personal excitement to pick winners that are somehow overlooked. Fortunately, years ago, I had a partner who was more traditional. He wasn't a bridge-jumper, or anything, but he typically won more bets than me. When asked why, he replied, "I always use the favorite."

His simple piece of advice has made the difference to my profits at the track. Even, if I don't like the favorite, I use it--in a box with my long play, on the bottom of exactas, in the middle and bottom of triples, etc.

The fact is, that while favorites consistently win 30% of races. They are in the money more than 80% of the time. Let's expand this maxim to include top Beyer figs, who also win 30%.

The last group I use to surround my long-shot winners, often become the actual play when I can find no particular contender. Favorites or second favs win a full 50% of the races. Second favorites, are often perfect plays when you have no real opinion.

Ride'em Cotto

Don't know what happened to him once Pedro Cotto left the New York jockey colony. But, he sure is bringing in large priced winners at Monmouth. Hot jock alert. Give anything he rides a second look.

Same Focus/ Different 'u'

When I started this site I stated :"We are the typical $2 punters who support the game. At some point, or the other, the u in our name may stand for union…"

Well, the time is now for a name change. Our 'u' now officially stands for united.
Seems an enterprising outfit has registered the name horseplayer U, as a fan education site. Good luck with the venture.

We remain committed to strategies to help the $2 bettor.

Much of my effort has been devoted to pursuing a reliable longshot system--reported on, here, extensively. The 'monster move' system will soon be published at a separate site: horseplayerunited.com. It is a 90-page booklet, showing more than 60 examples. Details to follow.

This blog continues--with an updated logo.

Brown out/ Lesson in Humility

The elusive thoroughbred triple crown survives for the 31st year without a winner. Big Brown at odds of 1-4 ran up the track. My selections bottomed out. The only person I know who won the race was the proverbial novice who simply played her numbers, 4,6, and 1 (the one being Big Brown).

What occurs to me out of all the hype is a tremendous respect for horses that were able to complete the challenge, especially Affirmed and Secretariat.

As an aside, it also shows that the game itself will keep humans humble. No matter how much we want something to happen, it matters not. All the analysis, the Beyers, the tremendous margins of victory, the injury to major competition meant nothing.

The simple fact is, no horse in 31 years has been able to win all three triple crown races. That should be the starting point for all future handicapping of the prize–especially with wins in the first two legs. Talk about figure handicapping!

Prediction: Bombs Away in The Belmont

It was bound to happen. A major stakes race. Historically, the most important race in the triple crown. The type of race I casually pass as being too difficult. And, boom, I've got two long-shot selections based on the method I've been shouting about.

Saturday, June 7 in the Belmont Stakes; Big Brown's effort to become the first triple crown winner in 30 years, I will be betting both Tale of Ekati. and Macho Again to upset. Across the board wagers on both.

The majority of my bet will be on 'Tale.' His recent pps fit most closely to the system. The horse is 2 for 2 at Belmont. Importantly, trainer Barclay Tagg is an expert move trainer with a tremendous success rate.

I will bet with confidence.

Of course, as added insurance I will box both longshots with favorite Big Brown, then with each other.
Be advised, Casino Drive and Ichabad Crane, both have high Tomlison ratings for the distance.

If ever there was a test for my system, this is it, folks. Wish me luck.

Good luck with your own wagers!

Have faith, all ye doubters

Over the years, and because of the system, I have become decent at watching races. I see a bit more than the obvious. But it is not my forte.
Something I have noticed, rarely, are horses that don't want to win. I've only seen a few. They get every opportunity. reach the front, then stop running, or pull their heads back, anything not to finish first.

In my opinion, My Sister Diane at NYRA has long been a qualifier for this sad condition.

On June 1, she was entered in a 6-furlong turf race (the second part of the late double) after a layoff since October. I knew her odds would be balloons. In fact, she went off at 34-1. She would be ridden by one of my favorite long-shot riders, Jose Espinoza.

Problem is, she--and two others in the race--showed my long-shot move. One was destined to be small odds, the other a real bomb. What to do?

The system said she was a contender. Despite my doubts, I treated her as such. Upon further investigation into her past performances, I found an old 7f -turf race was one of her best Beyer numbers. The 6 furlongs on turf was new to most in this field.

I decided to have faith in my system. A $1 backwheel in the double cost me $7. An
8-1 shot won the 6th. Double was promising more than $500.

With 10 minutes to go, while explaining Sister's lack of winning determination--to my mother, of all people. I decided to back myself up. I wagered a $2 exacta box with the other (low odds) move. Then for extra security, I bet $6 to show.

From the gate, Espinoza had a fight on his hands, she steadied twice in the backstretch, refused to go through a hole on the fence in the stretch--and still he persevered, just missing the win by three-quarters of a length.

Without her 'no win' malady, Sister would have made me rich.
The winner? Thank, God it was my exacta boxer for $204. My Sister Diane paid $11.6 to show.

The point? Have faith in the system. Do what it indicates.

THIS WEEKEND IT'S SAKI TO ME, $44.80

After sudden rains drenched the Monmouth track, causing numerous scratches and the cancellation of turf racing, Saki to Me, became the lone standout Monster Move selection in the ninth race Little Silver Stakes. Before the mass defections, the system picked one other horse besides Saki as a play (on turf). With the other competiton scratched, and the surface change Saki was an easier wager. Coupled with favorite Forest Trail, the exacta came back $170. Saki paid $14.80 to place, $8.40 to show. Stay tuned.

One good hit; Maybe, two

A horse player truism: No one ever bet enough on a winner.

If you knew the horse was going to win, you'd wager everything you own. At best. we only deduce that a horse should contend, if not win. This lesson is reinforced every time I select a winner like Halation, who paid $144 at Belmont.

Because I wasn't at the track and didn't see the post time odds, my advance wager was merely $3 across. Otherwise, the wager would have doubled or tripled. As it is, because of the monstrous price I had nothing to complain about.

I already had a $65 winner in Monmouth's second race, so I shifted from 'drive' to 'neutral' for the rest of my wagers that day. Still, how often do you get a chance to profit from that kind of oversight offered by Halation?

This brings me to my real point. My goal is to bet fewer, but more for each bet.
All said and done, you only need one good hit to make your day.

SYSTEM PICKS $144 WINNER AT BELMONT

Halation was one of two possible selections in the 5th at Belmont on May 24. He won.
Earlier, same day, I'm Not Guilty pays $65.80 at Monmouth. Enough said.
Stay tuned for the system.

Wrong, Right, Wrong

I've looked at the replay at least a dozen times. And, I am almost sure that jockey Kyle Branch owes me something like $1,500 for his ride on Challenger's Song. I could be wrong.

After having such a tremendous day at unfamiliar tracks, I reminded myself not to really get involved today. That is, unless I had to. And, at that, to limit my exposure. So, I casually went over the racing form for both Belmont and Churchill.

The one move that called out to me above all others was in the ninth at Belmont. It was, importantly, the second part of a daily double. For me that is a plus factor. I studied the race for hours.

Challenger's Song met all my important long shot criteria. I recognized unheralded trainer Joe Demola from previous successes. And even though the maiden was 5 years old, I could understand the plan. On May 7, by adding blinkers, he got the old horse to best his time for six furlongs during a 1 1/16 test race on turf. Challenger finished eighth at 57-1. Today was go day--with 5lb. apprentice Kyle Branch up.

If I was right, the horse would be completely overlooked in the betting. He closed at 15-1.

Still cautious, I limited my total outlay to $50--half of that in doubles with the morning line favorite and a few pick threes--using Challenger as a single. The rest went to straight betting.

With the ninth about to start, I was conservatively looking at about $1500--if Challenger won.

At the top of the stretch, Branch could wait no longer. He circled, drove to the lead by two-no three-lengths and was pulling away when the horse, suddenly, began to shorten stride. Thank God, he lasted for third which made me a decent profit on my bet.
All said and done, I think Branch moved too early; the wrong thing to do.

I'm sending him my invoice.

BOOM! There's nothing like it.

Anyone reading this blog knows that I am a New Yorker, living within minutes from Aqueduct and Belmont. They should also know that I have a hard time digesting the small prices regularly dished out by NYRA races. Not NYRA's fault, just a lot of good handicappers play there.

Although I regularly look out of town–Keeneland, Churchill, Fair Grounds, for example– Monday and Tuesday are dark days at my tracks. And, I rarely play tracks in Philadelphia and Delaware. That is about to change. As a lark to test my long shot system, I played both tracks. The method enjoyed tremendous success.

Monday Good
On Monday, the method gave me three averaged priced winners at 8-1 and 9-1. And then there was Blue Finally in the the 6th at Delaware. He paid $57.40, $20.8 and $11.80 to secure a satisfying day.

Tuesday Better
Tuesday, at Philly, Frilly Lass won the last at 18-1.

At Delaware, I back- and forward-wheeled a double in the 9th race; Then, used the same horse as a single for a pick three in races 8, 9, and 10. Additionally, I found a method horse in the 10th race and back wheeled it with all in the 9th. I played an additional $2 double with my move horses.

In each case, I also bet across the board on the move horses.

You guessed it. Red Pine paid $19 to win the ninth; Darned Bird paid $18.40 to win the tenth, going away. BOOM! I pulled down the whole banana.

You are welcome to check the Daily Racing Form for the exotic prices,, and to see if you can ferret out the similarities in these monster horses. Or, you can wait just a little while longer, and I'll explain everything in my book. Winners like these kinda take the sting out of being a $2 bettor.

In the meantime, I've added two tracks to my regular menu.

Recency: How long is too long?

Recency is the one factor that gives me fits. Since the late 70s, trainers have been able to improve or maintain a horse's form for longer and longer periods of time.
Some, like Mike Hushion and Bruce Levine in New York are experts.

Used to be that a recent group of races and workouts signaled the trainer's intention. It still applies today, but it's harder to read. Also, how valid is a two months old Beyer figure--even if it is the nag's most recent?

Despite the dilemma, I try to handle recency this way:
• Prefer any horse who has run within 21 days.
• I make exceptions for trainers with a Daily Racing Form record (bottom of pps) that shows they can bring back a winner over longer periods.
• The horse must show that it can compete (first, second, third) after a previous similar layoff
• Extra kudos for a horse that has raced within seven to ten days.

Because it is written in stone, I use the last race Beyer. But, note, that a previous non-negotiable rule requires a Beyer at the specific distance of today's race. This keeps things in perspective.

I hesitate to bet any real money (for me, more than $5 in the win pool) on any horse off more than 21 days.

Hold on. It's Coming

While waiting for copyright certification from the Library of Congress, I have been using this blog to review some of the basic factors in handicapping thoroughbreds. Be patient. The system is coming.

Handicapping: Do the basic two-step

In almost any other endeavor, creativity is rewarded. You know, the 'thinking out of the box' medal. Conversely, thoroughbred handicapping typically punishes straying from the rules. One can stray, all right, but only inside of the box.

Stated plainly: rigid adherence, seemingly, leads to profits.

It's been my experience that the most important rule in handicapping was stated by Tom Ainslie, years ago,

"Never bet a horse to do something it has not already done."

A broad statement, indeed. Think about it. Then, go over your most recent bets. How much could you have saved by following this basic maxim? How many losers could you have eliminated? This rule is absolute!

I learned to approach the handicapping task in two steps:
1. Eliminate the losers.
(See below)
2. Evaluate the remaining contenders.
There are so many approaches to selecting winners, that it's tough to know which rules are worth their weight in allegiance? And, which can be tossed. Choose your own

In any event, the first part of this dance is significantly more important. Here are a few suggestions:

These are Non- negotiable
Eliminate any horse that hasn't finished 4th within 5 lengths in two of the last four races

Eliminate any horse that does not show a Beyer at the exact distance of today's race.

Eliminate any horse that does not show an average of one win in every seven starts

Elimination Rules with allowable exceptions
Eliminate any horse not being ridden by a leading jockey, or a rider who has won with the animal before. Exception: A documented trainer/jockey combination that shows 15% or more success in the daily racing form


Remember, this is my approach. Nothing is written in stone. Hats off if you can be successful without the above. This is what works for me. More to come...

The Derby, Jockeycapping and more

EASY DERBY FOR ME
If you read this blog, you know that the Kentucky Derby is interesting to me only because of it's stature in the sport. I will watch it, make a small bet in the race, keying the second favorite, and enjoy the race.
In my opinion, the best horses are too difficult, at least for me, to handicap. So I will spend little time doing so. Based on the overnight payoff for the Oaks/Derby double, my selections will be Pyro and Court Vision. DRF consensus gives me Court Vision and Colonel John. I'll decide just before post time. A simple exacta box will do.
Should I decide to stretch, I will baseball Big Brown with a few long shots--merely because Andy Beyer is again throwing out his own top figure. I will include my favorite number box 2/7, on principle. My long shot to win? Cool Coal Man. That's it. The whole thing might cost me $25.

JOCKEYCAPPING AT BELMONT
At Belmont Park, I will attempt to take advantage of jockeycapping. On major days when the nationally revered jocks are out of town, I elevate the chances of horses ridden by solid local jocks who stay around. For example, Cornelio Velasquez, Alan Garcia and Channing Hill.

Take a look at Friday's results. Combined, they won seven of the nine races--including the $61 early double, the first $202 pick three, the second $88 pick three. Velasquez took the last three races for a $179 closing pick three. Triple-boxing the three jocks in the third race retuned a $106 triple. No handicapping necessary to take down these prices.

It happens often enough to put in your angle file. I can't wait for Preakness weekend.

SNEAK PEEK RESULTS
On a whim, two days ago, I gave out horses at Churchill Downs. Here's what happened. The first was scratched, but his entrymate won the first race, paying $8. Choctaw went off the favorite in the second, nullifying any bet. Looks like Ray Rules pulled another move, and should be watched although it ran last. Finally, in the sixth race move horse Classic Robbery, at 14-1, ran second by less than a length paying $9.80 and $6.00. Exacta with the favorite (always, always) came back $50.

'Game' reverence

In our passionate pursuit of winners, we often overlook the obvious. This is the toughest 'game' in the world. We are in the business of predicting the future. To me, that means restraint is key.

Without sounding hokey, I'm suggesting the player begin his or her analysis of the daily card with simple reflection about the task at hand. It is probably the toughest mental challenge in human endeavor. A moment of silence before going into action doesn't sound too out of line. Keep things in perspective.

I set a winning goal for each day. When I reach or exceed that goal my bets get smaller. To me, there's nothing worse than having a winning day, then going home with less money than I brought. Too stupid.

For instance, today, I stumbled early into a large exacta, although my best selection is in 9th race. My planned wager dropped from $60 to $12. (At this writing, I don't yet know the results).

It's not easy. But I have to do it. I don't own pry-foot-out-of-ass pliers.

As I mentioned in a previous post, after a winning day I usually take the next day off. If I must bet a selection or two it is of the $2 variety. This works for me.

Do you know what works for you?

A moment of silence, might help.

A sneak peek for today

Although I am no tout, I will share with my readers horses that I am considering as possible contenders today. They are probably not favorites. And, if you can get a good price might be worth a second look. Or, they might run last.
At Churchill
Race 1-LaFolette, only if the other part of the entry is scratched and you get 6-1
Race 2-Choctaw Bingo might repeat, Rays Rules will be big balloons
Race 6-Classic Robbery

Because I am a long shot player, this may be they only time I post ahead of the races. Let's see how the selections pan out.
Good Luck.

Contessa: Still a move trainer

Before he became the number one trainer in New York, Gary Contessa was making me loads of money. He, privately, is a master of the 'monster' move to which I am so devoted.

Since his success, he has added a number of training methods to what used to be his standard prep move. And, the prices have suffered as a result.

Imagine my surprise when, today in Aqueduct's second race, Contessa sent me a signal that he was going with layoff horse 'Higher Incentive.' With all the popularity and celebrity surrounding this trainer these days, I figured to get maybe, 3-1 on the beetle. Shows how much I know.

Surprisingly, the horse won for fun and paid $17.60, 8.90 in all-important second half of the first double. Coupled with the odds-on favorite in the first, the $2 double paid $44. Easy to have six times.

Someone knows when a winner is going off at long odds. Think you can figure it out? You're welcome to try. I give more than 60 examples of this kind of horse--my monster move--in my soon to be published booklet. Stay tuned.

Bad ride At Keeneland

I am no tout, but Frank Brothers couldn't have been happy with all the trouble Royalinsky got into off his prep (monster) move. The horse should have been no worse than second. Brothers has a decent relationship with jockey Lopez. At least he did, until today. Watch for Royalinsky next time.

Abstinence Over, with a bang and a book

I returned to thoroughbred racing this year on the first day of Spring, after three months—my second longest sabbatical from the Sport of Kings. The longest I have stayed away from horse racing is four years. At the time, It was out of necessity. I had lost my belief in my abilities to predict winners.
I didn't read any racing news, visit a track or look at the form.

This time was different. A long-lasting speed bias on the Aqueduct inner-dirt track, and lousy weather at the other tracks I played caused me to stop. And this time, I spent my days and nights pouring over old racing forms. As a result, i am now prepared to share the basics of my long-shot method.

My March 20 return paid immediate benefits. In Gulfstream Park's third, 'We're Sailing' lead every step of the way but the last at 40-1, to pay a nice $28 for place. Then at Fairgrounds in the fourth, Howdy Ho, my move horse won, paying $31. Nice way to come back.

For those who have hung in there with this blog I am keeping my promise. I am now fine-tuning an instructional booklet on what I have renamed the "monster move method." Monster is more accurate, because it yields such large prices,

Here are a few of the horses that the system has connected with in the last few days. (Check the charts, for yourself).

April 12, 2008
Race 1- Gulf--Wardyan $29
Race 8- Aqu- Sherine $29

April 16
Race 1- Tampa--Ms. Cimarron $21.40
Race 3- Tampa-Moro Chop Chop finished 3rd at 36-1, paying $17.8 to show

April 17
Race 2- Keen-Sunshine State $37

Everything is explained in the 90-page book. In fact, I give about 60 examples of the past performances, then the result charts. Stay tuned.

The Bettor's Four-Letter Word

I am taking a different tack to examine the nature of thorougbred handicapping. Rather than start with reading the form, comparing horses and Beyers, I am starting with the bet--and it's antithesis, the pass.

Even before any handicapping is done, our goal is to make a successful bet. We do this, in order to capitalize on our real or imagined evaluation of a race.

As I look over my accounts for the previous year, I am astounded at the sheer number of bets I make. The gall to think that on an average nine race card, I truly believe--by laying out hard-earned cash that I have a chance at hitting five or six races. There are, naturally, days that should involve this much action. Realistically, they are the exception rather than the rule.

Moreover, to reduce exposure the majority of one's bets should be straight--not exotic. Stupid to do otherwise.

I am obviously suffering from a form of handicapping dementia. The thinking goes like this, "What if a horse wins that I somewhat like and I don't have a dime on it? That would be terrible, wouldn't it?" This premise has, over the years,, cost me thousands of dollars.

Sound familiar?

Why not save your money for one or two larger bets where you have a decided edge, or a genuinely strong opinion. Otherwise, pass! There, I've said it–pass–he bettor's four-letter word.

Try it. You might like it. I'm going to. Still, somehow it seems like I'm taking the 'f' out of fun.

Forced Vacation

The pros suggest that even casual players take a certain period of time away from racing in order to regroup, reorganize and prepare for full scale assault. Well, with the Aqueduct inner-dirt track playing front-running favorites, and the west-coast weather following suit in California, I have been forced into a vacation from racing.
It never fails to amuse me, that periods like this always seem to happen, just when I am feeling super-confident about my ability to master this handicapping game.
Maybe, God is trying to tell me something.
I will heed the warnings--this time--and instead endeavor to explore the nature of the game. So, the content of my posts to this site, for a period, will be about just that--the game and it's nature.
Perhaps when things normalize and I am done with these evaluations, I will be better able to accomplish my handicapping mission. Stay tuned.

Big A January 20: Ditto

See previous post about January 19

Make note of Big A bias day--January 19

One of the things I hate most about winter racing at Aqueduct is the propensity of the inner dirt track to favor front runners on the rail. Today, January 19, was the pinnacle of that trend. Ironically, it was billed as a day to celebrate 10-year-old Evening Attire a notorious closer. Naturally, despite a valiant effort, he lost.

Fortunately--this time-- I was able to take advantage of this ridiculous bias. The prescription––as usual––for most of the races, was first out, first in.
Pace times made no difference. The front runners were approximating the speed of sound and still holding on. I suspected the trend in race two, when a maiden named,-- Hot Rail--ran quarters of 21.3, 45, 57, and was challenged to the top of the stretch but drew off by five before surviving at 5.5 furlongs.

I adjusted my handicapping, accordingly and caught these wire-to-wire winners: Lee Stewart, $23.6 stretching out in the fourth, Marina Market, $25.8, repeating in the fifth, Cash for Gold, $9.9 in the sixth and the first part of a $50 double.

Keep watch of the day's charts for middle move horse and closers who had no chance, but still ran well. Of note, watch for Helene's Dream who finished third at 30-1 in the seventh. Down play the performances of horses who took advantage of the bias. Few repeaters, if any, among them.

I, hereby, resolve...

One of the unexpected benefits of posting to this blog is that I have learned a lot about my own horseplay. In attempting to explain what I see, do and why, I have begun to regain the kind of confidence it takes to win consistently. For the first time, in a while, I feel it's possible to advance my game.

In that spirit, at the beginning of a new year, thoroughbred racing is a perfect place to develop some guidelines, if not resolutions.

• I will reduce the number of wagers I make by at least 40%. As opinionated as I am, I can't answer yes to almost every bet offer. It's stupid. I will find two or three patterns that I can reasonably rely on for a profit. And, stick to them.

• I will develop a clear-cut profile of the kinds of horses, races, conditions and distances I win with.

• I will find out what constitutes a real edge for the types of horses I like.

• I will include the favorite in every exotic bet, even if only in second place.

• Overall, in my selection process, I will adhere as close as possible, to recorded statistics about thoroughbred racing. To that end, I will develop realistic expectations about betting, price and value.

Golden, again

Today. With two minutes to post, I opened the DRF past performances on my computer desktop for Fairgounds Race Track. It was obviously a bunch of dogs, not meant to concern the minds of serious handicappers. Yet, there was one horse, that showed a semblance of the golden move I regularly play. Had seen the jock's name. Again, nothing notable. I quickly punched the nag's number into my betting account, posting $2 win and place.

Well, according to the chart, Dorcheat Captain, won by two lengths , and paid $89.2 to win, $26.8 to place--easily making my day. Imagine what I can do when I figure out the missing pieces of this puzzle.

For example, three, even four, horses in the seventh at the Big A show this move. How do I separate them? What makes one move more real than the others? Even the result didn't give me a clue.

FYI, the book is already written. This year, I intend to release the method behind these golden winners, whether it's completely solved or not. In fact, you already have access to the same information right in the form. Think you got it? Let me know.