How to pick a $97 winner/ Sweat the details to win

After a holiday sabbatical from racing, I returned to 'the game' with a bit of success.
The final day at the big A started me off with a bang as I selected a $97 winner. How? Simple, I looked at the details in the past performances. Coupled with some knowledge about Carol Cedeno being a better jockey than is understood on the NY circuit. And, giving credit to underrated trainer John Pregman.

No Allegiance, while finishing out of the money in the last four races, had competed against 44. first quarters at out of town tracks. Fastest horse in this field might mount a 45.2. The horse was also dropping to the lowest class level in his pps. Knowing that the inner track has been favoring speed, also helped.
I won't go so far as to say I singled No Allegiance. But he was worth a $4 win bet--and a couple of double plays which did not connect.
Unfortunately, the game No Allegiance collapsed just past the finish line and hand to be destroyed. A pity.

At Fairgrounds, race 1, the overwhelming favorite--an Asmussen/Bridgemohan special was going off at 1-5. That was enough, for me to throw her out. After examining the pps, I noticed that trainer Sam David owns a 19% win rate with firsters. Even though I am not a favorite of Jockey Zimmerman, the two seemed--in this stiuation--like Batman and Robin. This called for a small win bet on his horse, Can'tstopthisstorm, and my third selection. Additionally, wheeled the firster in the double. I was rewarded with $13 to win. And, as of this writing, am awaiting a double result and price.

Welcome back .

Unorthodox methods of play/ as good as any

Several years ago, I spent a day at Tampa Bay racetrack with a good friend I was visiting for the Thanksgiving holiday. Since Tampa was only running a simulcast card, we were somewhat disappointed.

She had never been to the track and wanted to know what to do. Rather than go through the confusion of explaining handicapping to a newcomer, I came up with the idea that we would simply exacta box two numbers all day long. Box 3 and 8, I told her. Why those numbers, I'll never know. I would follow suit. I showed her how and what to say to the clerk--then how to make sure she got the right ticket.
Naturally, if I saw something worth a bet, I would make an additional wager.

The first race in New York ran 38, paying $29 for a two-dollar ticket. She was ecstatic. "No matter what happens the rest of the day, I won at the track." Little did either of us know how true that would be.

Well, we didn't hit every race, at every track, but damn near! We even hit the 38 exacta at dog races, even at jai-alai, with the 8 winning an abnormal twice that day. Because of her exuberant celebrations, those nearby began to ask me about what system I was using, would I share it, etc.. I had no answer.

When it was over, we had cleared nearly $800, effortlessly. I still don't think she believes that it doesn't happen that way all the time.

My point is that anything can work for a period of time.

Since then, I have noticed that certain exacta numbers seem to run together. I regularly box 2 and 7 (see Breeders Cup posts) if I like either on the win end. The results of such stabbing are phenomenal.

I am not a trifecta player. But while waiting for a particular race, I will sometimes look at out of town tracks and key the third favorite and one or two long shots on top of two odds on favorites in the triple. Amazingly, it works often enough for me to show a profit with that bet.

Record keeping experiment

At the end of the year, and with so few quality races, I decided to develop a win profile,
for myself, I created the pictured tracking form which I will fill-in from DRF winner result charts. Information in the gray areas will come from past performance lines.

Here is the key to the factors I am watching. Insert your own.
R= recency (for me 20 days)
EX= exotic
2L=finished 2nd last race
2FAV= second favorite
BEYER = top 3 beyers
QRN= qual. running line
QD=qual distance
PS= horse lead at top of stretch last race

I will show a few filled forms once I get started.

Box score follow up

One factor I forgot to mention about the DRF box score. To the left of a horse's distance performance sit the nag's performance on the current track. Some horses only win on the inner-dirt track at Aqueduct. Many show 0 for 7. It's pretty easy to act accordingly. Check it out.

DRF: More than pps; key to long shots

Anyone who reads my posts knows I am a $2 bettor. Since, i play the game to make money, I can't afford to take low prices on solid horses. I'm a long shot specialist. What this means is I have to search for different horses than, merely, the top Beyer number in every race. Sometimes they are a value price, but not often enough.

The Daily Racing Form--my bible--provides several typically overlooked features in past performances, that are key to solid long shots.

First up is the horse's box score. It not only tells you number of starts, wins, places, and shows and money earned. Importantly, it gives number of starts at a distance and the horse's best Beyer for same. I start my handicapping, right here. For every race, I identify those with the best distance figures. I quickly weed out horses experimenting, or with little chance.

Secondly. I am more than interested in who is training and riding a horse. How does a trainer do in the called for situation? Moreover, I note if they have a successful history together. It's uncanny how often this data outweighs everything else--at lucrative prices. I have, repeatedly, caught $40 and $70 winners because the fit is just right.

Several handicapping strategies ask the player to identify 'the stranger,' in a race. They are talking about horses. I am more interested in why a leading jockey is riding a horse for an unknown trainer, listed in the morning line at 6-1, going off at 15-1. Pay attention to this factor and it will often give you clues to a large pay off.

Horsicide day: Lights out!

It's days like these that make me want to quit this game. And, I have--at least for the rest of December 9.
Since I am posting this blog, I will try to make it a lesson for myself, as well as readers. Let me start by saying I just realized (admitted?) that nothing disturbs me more than picking a longshot winner and not betting it. It has dawned on me how much a factor this idea is in deciding whether to bet or not. Obviously, all too often I make the bet, often when I shouldn't. (Note to self: change it)

The second highest thing on my irate chart is when my horse is supposed to win and doesn't. This is especially true when a foul is called to the attention of the stewards and they take no action. (Note to self: write something on bonehead stewards).

Both incidents happened today at Aqueduct in back to back races. So forgive me while I attempt to remove my feet from a place they don't belong in my body.

Incident one: Serious Vow, 9-1, in race 3 had chased a 1:09.1 pace in his previous race before tiring in the stretch. It would be facing nothing in this race to compare with that type of pace. The two favorites had large Beyers, popular trainers--and that's all. At the top of the stretch, jockey Arroyo had a handful of horse, began to make a winning move on the 3/5 leader when the second favorite rallies outside and the two scissor block Serious Vow nearly over the fence. The guardians of the game, didn't think it was enough to post the inquiry sign Trainer Carlos Martin had to claim foul. And we all know what that means. No change. It was a winner. Even if it finishes third, I make a profit. Aargh!


Incident two: In the very next race (a 5 1/2f maiden claimer which I supposedly do not to play) I notice two horses with my favorite long-shot patterns. The longest does not exactly fit the model. But with two overbet, suspect favorites, my normal --casual--bet involves keying my horses on top of the two favorites in a triple. Then win bets on each.

Nothing normal about today. Still griping about the 3rd race. I , merely, box my two long-shots and don't bet triples or to win. Carms Gold Warrior pays $57, the two favorites do their duty for a $984 triple. Of course, my other long-shot ran fourth completing a $6600 super. Return on investment: donut. Aaarrggghh!


Anybody got a "jaws of life?"

Tank McNamara Disease rampant at NYRA

The Sedlacek family has been training around the NYRA circuit for dozens of years. Sue, Michael, Roy et al have been relatively successful at the game. How they must cringe, every time one of their charges wins and has to be announced by the likes of NYRA's John Imbriale, Jan Rushden and recently Eric Donovan .

For their information, the name, phonetically, is SED•LA•CHECK, not SED•LAK as they so proudly announce. Tom Durkin, official race announcer, never makes this mistake. The fact that the other lazy-tongued group can't take the time to get someone's name right is indicative of their level of unprofessionalism. It is a disgrace.
Years ago, I encountered Imbriale at the track, and asked him, wryly, about the pronunciation. Naturally, with his smug, no time for the fan attitude, he asserted that Sedlak was indeed the proper way. Who do you think you're fooling?

World famous cartoon newscaster Tank McNamara (pictured), couldn't for the life of him, say 'sports news.' It always came out 'norts spews.' But then, he is a cartoon character. What are you folks?

It's About Time

Time is an important factor in handicapping thoroughbreds.
Once you get through with the 'no sh-t Sherlock' remarks, I will continue. I am not talking about race time, pace time, or post time.

What I am concerned with here, is the amount of time one is willing to put into deciphering a race or a race card. What and when does it become not worth it,
Obviously it's a personal decision. For reality sake, it's one that must be made.

Unless you are a pro player, I imagine you've got other things in life to do than spend hours pouring over the form for the selection you might come up with that returns $6 for $2. Then there are the race replays to watch for trouble and trip horses. Don't forget the result chart key race and comment studies.

How much of this can you do without destroying your enjoyment of the game? As mentioned, previously, one of the things that most frustrates me about handicapping is the lack of automatic bets. The closest it comes is a lone speed horse, getting loose on a slow-paced lead. Much of my success in the game is tied to these situations.

Because they are so rare, I have had to develop the kind of patience that doesn't come naturally to me. This reality has made me become a spot player.

For time-saving purposes, I therefore avoid these kinds of races.
• Races shorter than 6F and longer that 1 1/8 mile.
• All two year old maidens
• Maiden claimers without a dropping MSW horse
• Claimers for horses that have not won more than once
• Races where not one horse has competed at the required distance.
• Races populated completely by second-tier jockeys
• Most grade 1 and 2 stakes. Grade 3's hold opportunities.

Doesn't seem to leave much, does it? On any given day at the tracks I play, I can only find one race worthy of investigation.

After that, If I can't select a play within 40 minutes, the day is done.

Reinventing the wheel, again

Apologies for taking so long to update this page. I have been doing some rethinking about the site. The numbers say this is by far my most appealing blog. But it looks like folks visit and don't return. I am trying to post useful information that is not available elsewhere. Hence, the chart reviews I was doing.
Unfortunately, this info is limited only to two tracks and is too time consuming.
There is so much on the internet, it's difficult to do something unique.

The obvious answer would be to select and post winners before the race. Ultimately, it may be what I have to do. However, in the meantime, I am asking that you bear with me, while we reinvent our content.

Living in The Zone

There's nothing like being in the zone, when it comes to handicapping horses. Churchill Downs bid me a fond farewell on it's last day, with a $45 winner in the second race. Coupled with my second choice in the race, I took down a $305 exacta.

Over to the Big A, in the third race, I decided that Wayne Lukas was going to end his dry spell and begin to roll (make a note of it). Easy winner Legacy Thief paid $26, and in front of the favorite netted a $68 exacta.
Those who read this post, know Jockey Espinoza is my favorite long-shot rider. My confidence in him, snatched a $31,60 in the very next race. (I've got to figure out how to string these winners together in pick 3's.) That's later.
Today, they are not going to get me. I lost my wager in Churchill's 6th and am still way up. Without a very good reason, no more bets today.

You heard it here

Don't say I didn't tell you. Jockeys, I recommended on the NY circuit, are bringing them in. On November 17, Eddie Castro had a win. two seconds. and an important third. My longshot favorite Jose Espinoza just missed bringing home a bomb at 77-1, finished second, again at 13-1, third at 35-1 and third on veteran Evening Attire in the Stuyvesant (6-1). Alan Garcia, with a magnificent ride, just beat Espinoza on the 77-1 shot. In fact a box in the 5th race of Garcia, Espionza and Castro reteurned a $5,000 triple (No, I didn't do it). Garcia also won the Stuyvesant on Hunting at 10-1. Way to go, guys!

If only it was this easy

This true story answers the question about whether it's better to be lucky than good.
Wednesday, for no apparent reason, I decided to withdraw some money from my wagering account. For this to happen, several events had to fall into place. First of all, I had an obligation to meet in Manhattan on an 'official gridlock alert day.' I found parking. Secondly, the person I was lunching with-who is notoriously late--showed up early. Finally, traffic back to the Big A in Queens was unusually light, permitting me to arrive just after the 7th race. I withdrew the money.

With only two races to go, I bought 'the bible' for the following day, took a seat and bet the second favorite to win. He didn't. I was about to walk out when I noticed there was an abandoned Racing Form next to me.

I quickly scanned the last race, a horrible event--maiden claimers going long on the turf for the first time. Two of the dogs showed something similar to a racing pattern that I bet. One of them was being ridden by a jock I typically hate. The trainer was unknown to me.

Determined not to get hurt, I bet $2 on his horse to win, then $1 exacta-boxed him with the other pattern candidate. A total of $4, just for the hell of it.
Needless to say, they ran one-two around the track. Hate jockey won paying $60, the $1 exacta paid $297. I immediately withdrew half of the winnings--and canceled my bets for the following day (see 10/21/07 post).

Had I studied this race, I never would have played it. My only part was looking for a particular kind of running line. Luck is, no doubt, better than skill. It's an easy game.

It took about two minutes to handicap myself into $400. I will soon review products from another handicapping system called the "One Minute Handicapper." Can't wait? Find out about the one minute handicapper by clicking here

110807 Charts

Big A

1-RED HOT DAWN outrun , wide , going well outside.

2-RUBAIYAT was steadied start, raced inside and finished well
VIAGGIO leapt start, hustled to front, set the pace, tired.

4-BARRIER REEF outrun , rallied inside stretch, steadied in tight on rail deep
stretch, altered to outside, finished well.

5-P. J. INDY stumbled,outrun early, rallied stretch and finished game

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Church
1-LEGACY HUNTER, bumped soundly, forced out, steadied, raced inside, grazed the rail, four wide.

5-VAYA CON DIOS tracked pace four wide, loomed boldly, couldn't sustain

6-MISSING SEFA, outrun to stretch, circled seven wide, out-nodded .

7-EASY MONEY, in hand four wide, lacked room upper stretch, five wide.

8-BEAUFORT, well placed , steadied lacked room , four wide

110707 Charts

BigA

2 API MOHKAT stumbled at the start, close up inside, steadied ,d tired.

6 FORECOURT contested outside and tired
HALOS SAILING SAIN was bumped,stumbled, contested, tired.

7 STARVINSKY was bumped start, raced inside, came wide, finished well.
ADAGIO (GB) pressed the pace from the outside and tired in the final furlong.

8 SIBLEY was bumped, stumbled after the start, raced inside and rallied.
ANITA ROSITA was bumped at the start, chased three wide.

9 DESAFINADO was outrun , rallied three wide on, stayed well to the finish.
WALKABOUT WINNER was outrun , rallied widest ,going well late .
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

churchill

2 TRIPLE IT swerved in , was steadied, shut off CASEY'S JET,four wide, missed

4 CAPE COD BAY, forwardly placed inside start, moved outside the winner four wide for the drive, wound up inside SPIRIT LINE when that one drifted out late and was second best.

5 MAKEPEACE, outrun inside, bid seven wide , caught the leaders drove clear.

6 WON HAPPY BACHELOR, in tight, outrun seven wide to the stretch, going well at the end. NATIONAL PARK, outrun three wide, angled to the rail in the late going and finished well

10 CALL HER THE CAT, outrun for a half, rallied wide and was much the best of
others.

110407 Charts

Aqu

Race 2
Tate Tutt, set pace, under wraps, responded
Race 5
Perfect Arrival, outrun, altered, finished well
Noah H, pulled, vanned
Race 6
La Porta, close inside, rallied, finished well
Flyng Dixie, outrun, four wide, tired
Omnyut,, chased four wide, tired
Race 7
Boxitup, outrun, three wide, stayed well
Cordillean Ice, outrn, 3 wide, going well late
Race 9
Little Dovefeather, outrun, rallied, going well late
---------------------------------------------------
Churchill

Race 1
Shortcake, stalked, loomed, flattened
Race 2
Charley V, well placed, eased out, loomed, empty
Race 3
Scolara, sluggish, outrun, rallied, going well
Race 6
Johns' Road, outrun, advace six wide , going well

Out the window/A new direction

My apologies. Now that I have laid out all the steps to handicapping (my attempt to to up my game from $2 to $20), i realize that it's a wasted effort. I am furious. I have to throw the whole thing out.
The process I painstaking described above is viable, all things being equal. But, as evidenced by Aqueduct 2007, early speed is more important than any other factor.
I'm no track bias expert, but damn. Notorious quitters are opening up in the stretch after 'wicked' half times. First out, first in.
I haven't had video access to Churchill , the other track I play. But the doings at the Big A have made me extremely cautious. The system goes on hold.
One of my main goals with developing the system was to make it as automatic as possible. Now, it no longer fits the bill.

X-factors are why this game is so tough. As they say about poker, 'That's handicapping.'

During this learning struggle, I have decided to take this post in a whole new direction. Rather than report on my struggle to find the perfect handicapping system for me, I will post comments from charts across the country.

Stage two/ Starting over

Elimination done, I am usually left with about half of the field. These are the contenders
Now we get to the hard part.

Separate
Predict a Beyer number from contenders
Note top beyer at distance and last race
Validate superior Beyers (trouble line, bias)
Compare last two races for improvement
Analyze pace in real numbers

Additional credit for second finishers
Additional credit for fav and second favorite
Plot running of race

All other factors being equal (Beyer numbers, riders, etc.), the last item on the list usually yields my best result. I make a small diagram of the race track, plot the expected pre-stretch pace, and attempt to figure where each contender should be in the stretch.

When I can can find a horse with a clear advantage--at least three lengths or a 3-point Beyer number, at 3-1 or better--it's a bet. Most times it will be a pass

Here we go again/Starting over

As I begin the process of upgrading my game, I can't help but notice how many variables there are to just getting started. Remember, handicapping is a challenge--sort of like predicting the weather without the sophisticated equipment.
Your best chance is using information available in the Daily Racing Form.
That said, let's go

First of all, I will ignore:
Races less than six furlongs
Races more than 1 1/8 miles
Maiden claimers
The game is difficult enough without adding these buggers to the mix.

Here is my approach to the two-step process:

I will (immediately) eliminate:
Horses without a race at the exact distance
Not changing to a leading jockey
Not dropping in class
No finishes fourth within five lengths in two of last four run lines
Large weight change
Shows highest speed rating last race
Not within five of best speed rating (at distance)
Hasn't raced in 20 days ( trainer exception)
Winners (with exception)
Less than 1 win in every seven
Qualifying last race running line (trouble exceptions)
• In sprints. must show up close of 2 lengths at some point
• In distances, must show up close less than five lengths

These rules ought to get rid of the horses who are just out for exercise, or are not capable of winning today. I will take a second look at last race winners and keep those that seemed to have an easy time of it, or who might continue to improve.
Recency has always been a problem for me. The rule holds for cheap claimers. But in better races (Claim 50+. Allowance,etc.) I will be flexible enough to let trainer stats determine if the horse stays.

As Automatic As Possible

One of the reasons I started this site was to document and determine if, with patience and enough examination of the stats, I could move my game up from a $2 to a $20 bettor.
My next post was supposed to be a step-by-step approach to accomplishing that goal. For me to do that means, I have to become as automatic as possible.

When I play blackjack in Vegas, twice a year, I follow the basic rules to the letter. There is a prescribed action for every blackjack hand. No thinking, Just do it. Typically, I win money 7 out of 10 times I play. I need the same kind of structure in thoroughbred handicapping.

If successful, this will become my day-to-day basic system.
Like most systems, it will be a two-step approach:
• Eliminate the losers, and out for exercise horses.
• Separate the surviving contenders.

The next few posts will be dedicated to devising such a system, if possible. Stay tuned.

Last Golden Play Mention, until...

As I mentioned, I have a golden method that pays an average of 9-1.
For example, Saturday at Churchill, I daily-double wheeled Mott's horse in the first--and played $6 across the board. With two minutes to post, he was 12-1. He won, paying $14.8, $7.8, $7.8. Double with the favorite came back $60. Had it three times. My day was basically done.

However, in the eighth race, two of my method horses were running. The one I preferred is still running--at 19-1. The other? He finished second--losing by a head in a stretch-long battle---at 79-1. And, yielding $62 to place, $19 to show. If he wins, I hit the double. But, I had $2 place and show. I bet $8 across on the 19-1 loser.

Until I can decipher the key to separating these nags, I won't give out the method. You're invited to figure these horses, if you can. You will need the Daily Racing Form pps. In fact, this is the last time I will mention them until I can disclose the whole banana.

Watching is better

I live five minutes, either way, from NYRA's Belmont and Aqueduct tracks. Yet, the only time I attend these facilities is when I'm seriously betting one of their simulcast tracks. You see, win or lose, I like to watch my money waltz around the track. It makes a much better experience.

The prices in New York tend to be low. And, my cable system broadcasts the NY signal into my home. Typically, I use my telephone accounts and watch in my pjs. However, out-of-town broadcasts are only available on the network after the NYRA card is done. Since so many tracks run at the same time, this creates a problem.
At the track I can see them all, live.

Hats off to Keeneland and Monmouth (when they're not hosting Breeders Cup) for broadcasting their signals over the internet. I regularly bet these tracks from home as a result.

Hooray! Someone was thinking about the fan. Guarantee their mutuel handle improves because of it.

Handicapping the facts

If I ever wrote a book about thoroughbred handicapping, I'd start off with the facts. Most authors are so busy convincing you of their systems that they bury the facts in appendixes. The fact is:
• One of the top two betting favorites win 50% of the races
• One of the four betting favorites win 80% of the time
• Favorites run in the money something like 70% of the time
Seems logical to me to construct an approach to the game which concentrates only on four horses each race. I am sure somebody has, although I haven't seen it.

On a typical nine race card this translates into:
• Seven winners among the four lowest
odds horses (including, the favorite, of course).
• Favorites will win three races
• One race will produce a long-shot

Simple system
When I am casually handicapping, don't have the form or a strong opinion and don't want to pass the race:
• I bet the second favorite (2-1 or better) to win. These nags usually offer more value than the favorite and pay surprisingly well
• I play two automatic exactas,
-One box with the third favorite,
-Second favorite in front of the favorite.
This costs me a mere $8 (at $2 each). As gravy, I may play the second favorite in front on two more exactas. It's simple and keeps me from getting hurt too badly. I get a decent amount of winners and some very satisfying exactas payoffs.
If you use it, hang in for the long pull. Consistency is key.

New York Jock Alert

Watch Eddie Castro at Aqueduct. He had a fine NY last season. Is more than capable. Consider anything he rides, alive. Longshot specialist (See Aqu, October 28, races 2 and 4).

Breeders results: A good day, considering

All in all, I had a good day at Breeders. There were two 27 exactas, netting me $75, one second favorite won (English Channel), paying a very generous $8. I did not play a pick-six or pick-4. It wouldn't have hit anyhow. Never found any of my golden bets, anywhere. But made money at Keeneland in the Fayette (race7) and hit the double and a win on Tasteyville in New York. For the day, a decent profit. Came close to a big one. I needed Awesome Gem to run second to reap big balloons. Oh, well. That's racing.
Back to basic training!

My 'Cup' exotic strategy

A few hours from now, I join all thoroughbred fans in trying to make money at the Breeder's Cup races. (See previous posts on my overall strategy, for details.) This post outlines my exotics approach.
Remember. The goal here is to enjoy the day and maybe hit a race or two.
For reaaons, mentioned before, I will keep it real simple. In each race I will play two exacta boxes with the same combinations. For instance, if any of the results come in 27 or 72 you will know I have the exacta. I'll keep the other combination to myself. There you have it. No chasing. No analysis. No anxiety. Nothing but pure luck.

This strategy has worked for me on several previous 'Cup' days. In fact, one yielded an impossible $300 payoff. Now that's crushing the cup.

Good luck, all. Enjoy!

The Jocks: A key profit factor

A long time ago I learned to observe the pilots of the ponies I was betting. I have very strong opinions about who I will and won't bet on any horse, at certain distances, for particular trainers, etc. While not particularly observant, I have been able to notice unpopular riders who can ride. I make it a point to keep track of the two or three long shot riders at every track I bet. They are potential gold mines.

Today, at Aqueduct, the deciding factor in selecting the winners of two races (3, 4) was pilot Jose Espinoza. He has always been a favorite long shot rider of mine. Although, not fashionable, with a lot of the New York trainers, this guy has made oodles of money for me. Let a solid trainer--Nick Zito, for example-- boost him up and I have to take a second look.

Knowing long shot (unfashionable) riders has allowed me to predict solid future careers for such riders as Eibar Coa, Rafael Bejarano, John Graham, and Alan Garcia, for example. Saratoga 2007 meet winner Cornelio Velasquez, was no surprise to me. He was long overdue.

On the flip side, I keep a short list of jocks who couldn't win with Secretariat. I won't name names. I guarantee, these guys, who are supposed to have a 'clock in their head,' don't even own a watch. Currently, I've noticed one apprentice at NYRA who seems to have carried the seven-pound bug, forever. Come on dude. Get a job.

DRF: The player's bible

Before we go any further. I consider it a must to read and understand the Daily Racing Form, if you are to have any chance of thoroughly enjoying the game. Don't know who, what and how? The form does a wonderful job of explaining how to read all information you need to participate. It's free at www.drf.com or you can click the link here. You can find an explanation of the Beyer Figures here.
I am always amazed that so few regulars ever read the form. Might as well shoot in the dark and hope to hit something. There's always Lotto!

Personality Handicapping

Few books ever consider that one of the key factors in handicapping winners is personal . Who are YOU? That's right! Are you a risk taker, a conservative, an action nut? Do you have to bet every race or can you sit? Would you rather lose by a nose, or by a mile? The list can continue, forever.
You have to know who you are at the track before you have any chance of success.

From my look in the mirror
Personally, when I realized that I am a natural rebel:
• I began to pass a lot of races
•I --automatically-- include favorites and second favorites in my long-shot combinations.
• When I don't really have a clear-cut opinion, and still want to play the race, I bet the second favorite. It's easy and inexpensive.
• After I have a big winning day, I must, repeat, must take the next racing day off, completely. If I don't, I regret it.

Handicap your personality and see what happens
Hats off to Andy Beyer who has made it part of the winning recipe since day one.

Boom! I'm back with a vengeance

This is one hell of a game. I hadn't planned to mention it so early, but there is a long-shot play I have followed for years that --when it hits--makes one more than healthy. For various reasons, I have not played the races recently, until today. Suffice it to say that my winner was in Keeneland race one. LaDuran. His prices? $58.60, $27, $13.
As I am writing this the second race is won by Three Cities, paying: $51, $22, $16. Same kind of horse. (Can you find the similarity? You'll need DRF past performances) Have him across the board. Double comes back more than $2,000. I do not have the double--which is the point of my long-shot play stories. Much more on these plays, later.

My 2007 Breeders' Cup strategy. Part 1

Oh no! Here it comes, again! While I adore the pageantry, majesty, challenge and excitement, each year, of the world's greatest day of thoroughbred racing, I also experience my annual angst. This year will be no different.

Monmouth Park in New Jersey is host to this year's Breeders' Cup for two days (October 26-27)

Without a doubt, that Saturday, I will be glued to my television set, surrounded by Daily Racing Form pps, expert opinions from my local newspapers and personal handicapping notes I make during the three days of study prior to the event.

This time, however, I will sleep soundly the night before. I will put a non-negotiable cap on how much I spend during the cup races; consigning 70% of my stake to win and place betting, only. Merely $24 of the remaining bank will I spend on a favorite, second favorite Pick Six ticket. Should I be fortunate enough to find one of my favorite kinds of long shots in any of the battles--I might stand alone with it. The remainder goes on exotics centered around the post time second betting fave in each race.

Regardless of the results, i will have a grand time. Merely, watching the greatest horses in the world compete will be satisfaction, enough. Winners will be gravy. The best laid plans...

My 2007 Breeders' Cup strategy. Part 2

Seriously, in 30+ years of playing the game, i have found a few absolute truths:

1. The most impossible races to handicap are the worst horses in the world.
2. The second most impossible races to handicap are the best horses in the world.

Don't listen to me. After all the seminars, the forums, the analysis and the hype
just look at the results of the professionals--and, their list of excuses.

On Breeders" Day, I will look for value in the surrounding cards. I will play the Cup Races, casually and enjoy them.

Up your skills: Read Beyer, Davidowitz

Andy Beyer and Steve Davidowitz are two of the most acclaimed handicappers in the world. Find out their take on the game by selecting the books below.

Want to test your luck? Go limbo

Feeling lucky? Try your hand at limbo online or on your cell phone by clicking the link

It's free. It's easy and it's fun. Enjoy!

In the beginning....an easy game

I can remember a time when, for the life of me, I couldn't figure out why any newspaper would waste the space and newsprint to cover horseracing. Who in the world could possibly care about all the printed jibberish? And, what kind of marroons would actually think they had any chance at picking one or more winners in a racing day?
I won't go into the details, now, of how I became thunderstruck with the sport. Simply said. A couple of effortless $22 and $35 winners made me believe wagering was an easy way to make extra money. Ha!

Not being an idiot, I wanted solid instruction on how to handicap. The first book I ever bought was "The Professional Method of Winner Selection," by Lawrence Vogele. This was my basic training. I inhaled it. As he suggested, I handicapped hundreds of races before ever placing a bet. When I was confident enough, I grabbed my binoculars and went to Aqueduct. And, I won. Easy money. Ha!

The rest of the tale anyone reading this already knows. Somewhere, along the road, I couldn't work the system. I started losing. My handicapping library grew to 46 books--on pace, on figures, on trips, on trainers, on track bias. Not one of them had the answer. Most, were well meant. But few ever pointed out the obvious fact, that to win at horseracing one must be able to master an infinite number of variables. What works in race one, won't work again for a dozen races. And, only after you've discarded the factor as having any validity, Welcome to my world.

When in the course of human events...

This is a site for those of us who love horse racing, particularly, thoroughbreds. It's for those who understand the fascinating, arduous, intellectually challenging and sometimes rewarding art of predicting a result. We are among that group that don't have $1,200 a day to join syndicates to take down a monstrous pick six. We are the typical $2 punters who support the game
At some point .or the other, the u in our name may stand for union, once we figure out that the industry doesn't survive without us and should provide the requisite service.
From the outset, we are not encouraging gambling. It's going to happen with or without us. What we hope to do is make the process enjoyable and profitable for those of us who enjoy the challenge.