One good hit; Maybe, two

A horse player truism: No one ever bet enough on a winner.

If you knew the horse was going to win, you'd wager everything you own. At best. we only deduce that a horse should contend, if not win. This lesson is reinforced every time I select a winner like Halation, who paid $144 at Belmont.

Because I wasn't at the track and didn't see the post time odds, my advance wager was merely $3 across. Otherwise, the wager would have doubled or tripled. As it is, because of the monstrous price I had nothing to complain about.

I already had a $65 winner in Monmouth's second race, so I shifted from 'drive' to 'neutral' for the rest of my wagers that day. Still, how often do you get a chance to profit from that kind of oversight offered by Halation?

This brings me to my real point. My goal is to bet fewer, but more for each bet.
All said and done, you only need one good hit to make your day.

SYSTEM PICKS $144 WINNER AT BELMONT

Halation was one of two possible selections in the 5th at Belmont on May 24. He won.
Earlier, same day, I'm Not Guilty pays $65.80 at Monmouth. Enough said.
Stay tuned for the system.

Wrong, Right, Wrong

I've looked at the replay at least a dozen times. And, I am almost sure that jockey Kyle Branch owes me something like $1,500 for his ride on Challenger's Song. I could be wrong.

After having such a tremendous day at unfamiliar tracks, I reminded myself not to really get involved today. That is, unless I had to. And, at that, to limit my exposure. So, I casually went over the racing form for both Belmont and Churchill.

The one move that called out to me above all others was in the ninth at Belmont. It was, importantly, the second part of a daily double. For me that is a plus factor. I studied the race for hours.

Challenger's Song met all my important long shot criteria. I recognized unheralded trainer Joe Demola from previous successes. And even though the maiden was 5 years old, I could understand the plan. On May 7, by adding blinkers, he got the old horse to best his time for six furlongs during a 1 1/16 test race on turf. Challenger finished eighth at 57-1. Today was go day--with 5lb. apprentice Kyle Branch up.

If I was right, the horse would be completely overlooked in the betting. He closed at 15-1.

Still cautious, I limited my total outlay to $50--half of that in doubles with the morning line favorite and a few pick threes--using Challenger as a single. The rest went to straight betting.

With the ninth about to start, I was conservatively looking at about $1500--if Challenger won.

At the top of the stretch, Branch could wait no longer. He circled, drove to the lead by two-no three-lengths and was pulling away when the horse, suddenly, began to shorten stride. Thank God, he lasted for third which made me a decent profit on my bet.
All said and done, I think Branch moved too early; the wrong thing to do.

I'm sending him my invoice.

BOOM! There's nothing like it.

Anyone reading this blog knows that I am a New Yorker, living within minutes from Aqueduct and Belmont. They should also know that I have a hard time digesting the small prices regularly dished out by NYRA races. Not NYRA's fault, just a lot of good handicappers play there.

Although I regularly look out of town–Keeneland, Churchill, Fair Grounds, for example– Monday and Tuesday are dark days at my tracks. And, I rarely play tracks in Philadelphia and Delaware. That is about to change. As a lark to test my long shot system, I played both tracks. The method enjoyed tremendous success.

Monday Good
On Monday, the method gave me three averaged priced winners at 8-1 and 9-1. And then there was Blue Finally in the the 6th at Delaware. He paid $57.40, $20.8 and $11.80 to secure a satisfying day.

Tuesday Better
Tuesday, at Philly, Frilly Lass won the last at 18-1.

At Delaware, I back- and forward-wheeled a double in the 9th race; Then, used the same horse as a single for a pick three in races 8, 9, and 10. Additionally, I found a method horse in the 10th race and back wheeled it with all in the 9th. I played an additional $2 double with my move horses.

In each case, I also bet across the board on the move horses.

You guessed it. Red Pine paid $19 to win the ninth; Darned Bird paid $18.40 to win the tenth, going away. BOOM! I pulled down the whole banana.

You are welcome to check the Daily Racing Form for the exotic prices,, and to see if you can ferret out the similarities in these monster horses. Or, you can wait just a little while longer, and I'll explain everything in my book. Winners like these kinda take the sting out of being a $2 bettor.

In the meantime, I've added two tracks to my regular menu.

Recency: How long is too long?

Recency is the one factor that gives me fits. Since the late 70s, trainers have been able to improve or maintain a horse's form for longer and longer periods of time.
Some, like Mike Hushion and Bruce Levine in New York are experts.

Used to be that a recent group of races and workouts signaled the trainer's intention. It still applies today, but it's harder to read. Also, how valid is a two months old Beyer figure--even if it is the nag's most recent?

Despite the dilemma, I try to handle recency this way:
• Prefer any horse who has run within 21 days.
• I make exceptions for trainers with a Daily Racing Form record (bottom of pps) that shows they can bring back a winner over longer periods.
• The horse must show that it can compete (first, second, third) after a previous similar layoff
• Extra kudos for a horse that has raced within seven to ten days.

Because it is written in stone, I use the last race Beyer. But, note, that a previous non-negotiable rule requires a Beyer at the specific distance of today's race. This keeps things in perspective.

I hesitate to bet any real money (for me, more than $5 in the win pool) on any horse off more than 21 days.

Hold on. It's Coming

While waiting for copyright certification from the Library of Congress, I have been using this blog to review some of the basic factors in handicapping thoroughbreds. Be patient. The system is coming.

Handicapping: Do the basic two-step

In almost any other endeavor, creativity is rewarded. You know, the 'thinking out of the box' medal. Conversely, thoroughbred handicapping typically punishes straying from the rules. One can stray, all right, but only inside of the box.

Stated plainly: rigid adherence, seemingly, leads to profits.

It's been my experience that the most important rule in handicapping was stated by Tom Ainslie, years ago,

"Never bet a horse to do something it has not already done."

A broad statement, indeed. Think about it. Then, go over your most recent bets. How much could you have saved by following this basic maxim? How many losers could you have eliminated? This rule is absolute!

I learned to approach the handicapping task in two steps:
1. Eliminate the losers.
(See below)
2. Evaluate the remaining contenders.
There are so many approaches to selecting winners, that it's tough to know which rules are worth their weight in allegiance? And, which can be tossed. Choose your own

In any event, the first part of this dance is significantly more important. Here are a few suggestions:

These are Non- negotiable
Eliminate any horse that hasn't finished 4th within 5 lengths in two of the last four races

Eliminate any horse that does not show a Beyer at the exact distance of today's race.

Eliminate any horse that does not show an average of one win in every seven starts

Elimination Rules with allowable exceptions
Eliminate any horse not being ridden by a leading jockey, or a rider who has won with the animal before. Exception: A documented trainer/jockey combination that shows 15% or more success in the daily racing form


Remember, this is my approach. Nothing is written in stone. Hats off if you can be successful without the above. This is what works for me. More to come...

The Derby, Jockeycapping and more

EASY DERBY FOR ME
If you read this blog, you know that the Kentucky Derby is interesting to me only because of it's stature in the sport. I will watch it, make a small bet in the race, keying the second favorite, and enjoy the race.
In my opinion, the best horses are too difficult, at least for me, to handicap. So I will spend little time doing so. Based on the overnight payoff for the Oaks/Derby double, my selections will be Pyro and Court Vision. DRF consensus gives me Court Vision and Colonel John. I'll decide just before post time. A simple exacta box will do.
Should I decide to stretch, I will baseball Big Brown with a few long shots--merely because Andy Beyer is again throwing out his own top figure. I will include my favorite number box 2/7, on principle. My long shot to win? Cool Coal Man. That's it. The whole thing might cost me $25.

JOCKEYCAPPING AT BELMONT
At Belmont Park, I will attempt to take advantage of jockeycapping. On major days when the nationally revered jocks are out of town, I elevate the chances of horses ridden by solid local jocks who stay around. For example, Cornelio Velasquez, Alan Garcia and Channing Hill.

Take a look at Friday's results. Combined, they won seven of the nine races--including the $61 early double, the first $202 pick three, the second $88 pick three. Velasquez took the last three races for a $179 closing pick three. Triple-boxing the three jocks in the third race retuned a $106 triple. No handicapping necessary to take down these prices.

It happens often enough to put in your angle file. I can't wait for Preakness weekend.

SNEAK PEEK RESULTS
On a whim, two days ago, I gave out horses at Churchill Downs. Here's what happened. The first was scratched, but his entrymate won the first race, paying $8. Choctaw went off the favorite in the second, nullifying any bet. Looks like Ray Rules pulled another move, and should be watched although it ran last. Finally, in the sixth race move horse Classic Robbery, at 14-1, ran second by less than a length paying $9.80 and $6.00. Exacta with the favorite (always, always) came back $50.

'Game' reverence

In our passionate pursuit of winners, we often overlook the obvious. This is the toughest 'game' in the world. We are in the business of predicting the future. To me, that means restraint is key.

Without sounding hokey, I'm suggesting the player begin his or her analysis of the daily card with simple reflection about the task at hand. It is probably the toughest mental challenge in human endeavor. A moment of silence before going into action doesn't sound too out of line. Keep things in perspective.

I set a winning goal for each day. When I reach or exceed that goal my bets get smaller. To me, there's nothing worse than having a winning day, then going home with less money than I brought. Too stupid.

For instance, today, I stumbled early into a large exacta, although my best selection is in 9th race. My planned wager dropped from $60 to $12. (At this writing, I don't yet know the results).

It's not easy. But I have to do it. I don't own pry-foot-out-of-ass pliers.

As I mentioned in a previous post, after a winning day I usually take the next day off. If I must bet a selection or two it is of the $2 variety. This works for me.

Do you know what works for you?

A moment of silence, might help.

A sneak peek for today

Although I am no tout, I will share with my readers horses that I am considering as possible contenders today. They are probably not favorites. And, if you can get a good price might be worth a second look. Or, they might run last.
At Churchill
Race 1-LaFolette, only if the other part of the entry is scratched and you get 6-1
Race 2-Choctaw Bingo might repeat, Rays Rules will be big balloons
Race 6-Classic Robbery

Because I am a long shot player, this may be they only time I post ahead of the races. Let's see how the selections pan out.
Good Luck.