Watching is better

I live five minutes, either way, from NYRA's Belmont and Aqueduct tracks. Yet, the only time I attend these facilities is when I'm seriously betting one of their simulcast tracks. You see, win or lose, I like to watch my money waltz around the track. It makes a much better experience.

The prices in New York tend to be low. And, my cable system broadcasts the NY signal into my home. Typically, I use my telephone accounts and watch in my pjs. However, out-of-town broadcasts are only available on the network after the NYRA card is done. Since so many tracks run at the same time, this creates a problem.
At the track I can see them all, live.

Hats off to Keeneland and Monmouth (when they're not hosting Breeders Cup) for broadcasting their signals over the internet. I regularly bet these tracks from home as a result.

Hooray! Someone was thinking about the fan. Guarantee their mutuel handle improves because of it.

Handicapping the facts

If I ever wrote a book about thoroughbred handicapping, I'd start off with the facts. Most authors are so busy convincing you of their systems that they bury the facts in appendixes. The fact is:
• One of the top two betting favorites win 50% of the races
• One of the four betting favorites win 80% of the time
• Favorites run in the money something like 70% of the time
Seems logical to me to construct an approach to the game which concentrates only on four horses each race. I am sure somebody has, although I haven't seen it.

On a typical nine race card this translates into:
• Seven winners among the four lowest
odds horses (including, the favorite, of course).
• Favorites will win three races
• One race will produce a long-shot

Simple system
When I am casually handicapping, don't have the form or a strong opinion and don't want to pass the race:
• I bet the second favorite (2-1 or better) to win. These nags usually offer more value than the favorite and pay surprisingly well
• I play two automatic exactas,
-One box with the third favorite,
-Second favorite in front of the favorite.
This costs me a mere $8 (at $2 each). As gravy, I may play the second favorite in front on two more exactas. It's simple and keeps me from getting hurt too badly. I get a decent amount of winners and some very satisfying exactas payoffs.
If you use it, hang in for the long pull. Consistency is key.

New York Jock Alert

Watch Eddie Castro at Aqueduct. He had a fine NY last season. Is more than capable. Consider anything he rides, alive. Longshot specialist (See Aqu, October 28, races 2 and 4).

Breeders results: A good day, considering

All in all, I had a good day at Breeders. There were two 27 exactas, netting me $75, one second favorite won (English Channel), paying a very generous $8. I did not play a pick-six or pick-4. It wouldn't have hit anyhow. Never found any of my golden bets, anywhere. But made money at Keeneland in the Fayette (race7) and hit the double and a win on Tasteyville in New York. For the day, a decent profit. Came close to a big one. I needed Awesome Gem to run second to reap big balloons. Oh, well. That's racing.
Back to basic training!

My 'Cup' exotic strategy

A few hours from now, I join all thoroughbred fans in trying to make money at the Breeder's Cup races. (See previous posts on my overall strategy, for details.) This post outlines my exotics approach.
Remember. The goal here is to enjoy the day and maybe hit a race or two.
For reaaons, mentioned before, I will keep it real simple. In each race I will play two exacta boxes with the same combinations. For instance, if any of the results come in 27 or 72 you will know I have the exacta. I'll keep the other combination to myself. There you have it. No chasing. No analysis. No anxiety. Nothing but pure luck.

This strategy has worked for me on several previous 'Cup' days. In fact, one yielded an impossible $300 payoff. Now that's crushing the cup.

Good luck, all. Enjoy!

The Jocks: A key profit factor

A long time ago I learned to observe the pilots of the ponies I was betting. I have very strong opinions about who I will and won't bet on any horse, at certain distances, for particular trainers, etc. While not particularly observant, I have been able to notice unpopular riders who can ride. I make it a point to keep track of the two or three long shot riders at every track I bet. They are potential gold mines.

Today, at Aqueduct, the deciding factor in selecting the winners of two races (3, 4) was pilot Jose Espinoza. He has always been a favorite long shot rider of mine. Although, not fashionable, with a lot of the New York trainers, this guy has made oodles of money for me. Let a solid trainer--Nick Zito, for example-- boost him up and I have to take a second look.

Knowing long shot (unfashionable) riders has allowed me to predict solid future careers for such riders as Eibar Coa, Rafael Bejarano, John Graham, and Alan Garcia, for example. Saratoga 2007 meet winner Cornelio Velasquez, was no surprise to me. He was long overdue.

On the flip side, I keep a short list of jocks who couldn't win with Secretariat. I won't name names. I guarantee, these guys, who are supposed to have a 'clock in their head,' don't even own a watch. Currently, I've noticed one apprentice at NYRA who seems to have carried the seven-pound bug, forever. Come on dude. Get a job.

DRF: The player's bible

Before we go any further. I consider it a must to read and understand the Daily Racing Form, if you are to have any chance of thoroughly enjoying the game. Don't know who, what and how? The form does a wonderful job of explaining how to read all information you need to participate. It's free at www.drf.com or you can click the link here. You can find an explanation of the Beyer Figures here.
I am always amazed that so few regulars ever read the form. Might as well shoot in the dark and hope to hit something. There's always Lotto!

Personality Handicapping

Few books ever consider that one of the key factors in handicapping winners is personal . Who are YOU? That's right! Are you a risk taker, a conservative, an action nut? Do you have to bet every race or can you sit? Would you rather lose by a nose, or by a mile? The list can continue, forever.
You have to know who you are at the track before you have any chance of success.

From my look in the mirror
Personally, when I realized that I am a natural rebel:
• I began to pass a lot of races
•I --automatically-- include favorites and second favorites in my long-shot combinations.
• When I don't really have a clear-cut opinion, and still want to play the race, I bet the second favorite. It's easy and inexpensive.
• After I have a big winning day, I must, repeat, must take the next racing day off, completely. If I don't, I regret it.

Handicap your personality and see what happens
Hats off to Andy Beyer who has made it part of the winning recipe since day one.

Boom! I'm back with a vengeance

This is one hell of a game. I hadn't planned to mention it so early, but there is a long-shot play I have followed for years that --when it hits--makes one more than healthy. For various reasons, I have not played the races recently, until today. Suffice it to say that my winner was in Keeneland race one. LaDuran. His prices? $58.60, $27, $13.
As I am writing this the second race is won by Three Cities, paying: $51, $22, $16. Same kind of horse. (Can you find the similarity? You'll need DRF past performances) Have him across the board. Double comes back more than $2,000. I do not have the double--which is the point of my long-shot play stories. Much more on these plays, later.

My 2007 Breeders' Cup strategy. Part 1

Oh no! Here it comes, again! While I adore the pageantry, majesty, challenge and excitement, each year, of the world's greatest day of thoroughbred racing, I also experience my annual angst. This year will be no different.

Monmouth Park in New Jersey is host to this year's Breeders' Cup for two days (October 26-27)

Without a doubt, that Saturday, I will be glued to my television set, surrounded by Daily Racing Form pps, expert opinions from my local newspapers and personal handicapping notes I make during the three days of study prior to the event.

This time, however, I will sleep soundly the night before. I will put a non-negotiable cap on how much I spend during the cup races; consigning 70% of my stake to win and place betting, only. Merely $24 of the remaining bank will I spend on a favorite, second favorite Pick Six ticket. Should I be fortunate enough to find one of my favorite kinds of long shots in any of the battles--I might stand alone with it. The remainder goes on exotics centered around the post time second betting fave in each race.

Regardless of the results, i will have a grand time. Merely, watching the greatest horses in the world compete will be satisfaction, enough. Winners will be gravy. The best laid plans...

My 2007 Breeders' Cup strategy. Part 2

Seriously, in 30+ years of playing the game, i have found a few absolute truths:

1. The most impossible races to handicap are the worst horses in the world.
2. The second most impossible races to handicap are the best horses in the world.

Don't listen to me. After all the seminars, the forums, the analysis and the hype
just look at the results of the professionals--and, their list of excuses.

On Breeders" Day, I will look for value in the surrounding cards. I will play the Cup Races, casually and enjoy them.

Up your skills: Read Beyer, Davidowitz

Andy Beyer and Steve Davidowitz are two of the most acclaimed handicappers in the world. Find out their take on the game by selecting the books below.

Want to test your luck? Go limbo

Feeling lucky? Try your hand at limbo online or on your cell phone by clicking the link

It's free. It's easy and it's fun. Enjoy!

In the beginning....an easy game

I can remember a time when, for the life of me, I couldn't figure out why any newspaper would waste the space and newsprint to cover horseracing. Who in the world could possibly care about all the printed jibberish? And, what kind of marroons would actually think they had any chance at picking one or more winners in a racing day?
I won't go into the details, now, of how I became thunderstruck with the sport. Simply said. A couple of effortless $22 and $35 winners made me believe wagering was an easy way to make extra money. Ha!

Not being an idiot, I wanted solid instruction on how to handicap. The first book I ever bought was "The Professional Method of Winner Selection," by Lawrence Vogele. This was my basic training. I inhaled it. As he suggested, I handicapped hundreds of races before ever placing a bet. When I was confident enough, I grabbed my binoculars and went to Aqueduct. And, I won. Easy money. Ha!

The rest of the tale anyone reading this already knows. Somewhere, along the road, I couldn't work the system. I started losing. My handicapping library grew to 46 books--on pace, on figures, on trips, on trainers, on track bias. Not one of them had the answer. Most, were well meant. But few ever pointed out the obvious fact, that to win at horseracing one must be able to master an infinite number of variables. What works in race one, won't work again for a dozen races. And, only after you've discarded the factor as having any validity, Welcome to my world.

When in the course of human events...

This is a site for those of us who love horse racing, particularly, thoroughbreds. It's for those who understand the fascinating, arduous, intellectually challenging and sometimes rewarding art of predicting a result. We are among that group that don't have $1,200 a day to join syndicates to take down a monstrous pick six. We are the typical $2 punters who support the game
At some point .or the other, the u in our name may stand for union, once we figure out that the industry doesn't survive without us and should provide the requisite service.
From the outset, we are not encouraging gambling. It's going to happen with or without us. What we hope to do is make the process enjoyable and profitable for those of us who enjoy the challenge.