An Easy Dilemma

Two moves in the second at Monmouth against a 3-5 shot. What to do? Oh, that's right Pedro Cotto is riding Fly Pass at 8-1. No problem. Balloon Man to the hoop pays $18.40 (See yesterday's post).

You heard it here, again!

It's only because I followed my own rules (take a break after a winning day) that I'm not upset. As I reported on June 13 and repeated yesterday, Pedro Cotto at Monmouth is winning with huge long-shots and requires a second look, automatically. In race two he won by open lengths with a 38-1 shot. He won the fourth at only 3-1, ran second in the sixth at 13-1 and ran second in the ninth, at a paltry 5-1. Mr. Cotto is currently Mr. Balloons.

Straight Out of the Book

I have never been a fan of jockey Joe Bravo. Our souls don't mix. I bet him he loses. I don't, he wins. I now have an especially large bone to pick with him after he was dq'd on favorite in Monmouth's 4th.
He was the leadoff to a pick three where i singled picture-book 'move' horse Jeterina (16-1) in the fifth race with four horses in the sixth. including $75 winner Libertarian ridden by Pedro Cotto.(A June 13 post, here, alerted players to Cotto's long-shot knack.)

Fortunately I had both winners in straight betting. It's not the same.

At Belmont, 'move' winners included:
Unique Citizen, $15.60
Watch My Lass, second at 22-1
Shuffling Madness, 7-1 rallied too late

All of these winners are straight out of the "Monster Move System" book. A $2 win bet on Jeterina, could have paid for the cost of the download. Enough, said.

Note: Follow Digital Age in NY (39-1, yesterday)

Good Moves, Monster Alert, Pace Move

No good deed goes unpunished. Took Sunday off to lend assistance where necessary. And, it cost me. At Belmont these 'move' horses performed well:

Fourth: Victory Assured won at 6-1
Sixth: Western Slang ran second at 14-1
Eighth: Blue Devil Bel won at almost 7-1

Oh well, guess I'll get my rewards in heaven!

Monster Alert
Wise Pitch (84-1) is rounding to form off of three consecutive moves. If trainer Araya, changes anything-especially jocks-look out!

The Other Move
There is another running line move that I frequently play. This one has been better publicized, and is easier to follow. It identifies superior last-race pace runners.
Here is the criteria:

• Last race has to be within 20 days.
• At the pre-stretch call, qualifier must have been within one-length of the leader
• Pace time must be less than :46.2 for 6 furlongs,
less than 1:11 for one mile
less than 1:12 for a mile and an eighth
• Horse can not have won race before last

Prices for this play run about 4-1. Usually a good performance. (Note: California tracks excluded because of the emphasis on speed). We will definitely keep track of these as well as 'monsters' at horseplayerunited.com

The Odds Are With You

Reportedly, many professional players envision the running of a potential race over and over to determine how often a selection should win. All things being equal, this gives them enough information to construct an odds line. At post time, if the selection goes off at or more than the line it's a bet. Otherwise, a pass.

Nice idea. But. I don't have that kind of time and I'm not sure I would enjoy the game as much with the necessary extra work. I'm still trying to find enough time to really examine daily result charts.

I know that favorites are created by the public--usually based on a top Beyer fig, a good recent performance, or public selector. I am willing to look behind the obvious--trouble lines, previous wins at the distance, etc.
Still, unless Secretariat is running against the average claimer, I never understand a reason for odds of 3-5, 0r 4-5.

I set my target odds at 6-1. If my selection is a 'move,' I'm confident when odds are around 9-1 (the average). Selections longer than 15-1 require a smaller bet.

What are your good odds? However you arrive at a figure, at least have an idea of what odds are typical for your play.

Good Moves 6/19

Acquired Cat BEL race 7 won at 11-1 (much the best)
Oggies Way MTH race 7 second at 12-1, paying $13.40 to place
Nadeshiko CHU race 9 won at 6-1

Monster System available, finally

OK folks, it's finally done. A companion website to this blogspot is now open and prepared to offer details of the Monster Move System I so readily use to pick long shot winners. The address is horseplayerunited.com.

When i started this blog it was merely to keep record of my own handicapping experiences. I never expected to sell anything, except, maybe logo items.

As I posted, I began to realize how much this one system was working for me. I decided to share. To that end, I put together an 84-page booklet to demonstrate the system. It was a lot of work. You can now download it for a $30 fee at horseplayerunited.com on the BLOG page. One $30 winner and the book pays for itself.

Contents of the rest of the site are under consideration and construction. I plan to keep track of 'move' winners on the HITS page; take a look at 'moves' that didn't work on the MISSES page.

I expect the rest of the site to focus on other workable methods (windows) of approaching the game, particularly for the $2 bettor. Please visit and give me your suggestions and opinions. Send your e-mails to mover@horseplayerunited.com.

That said, let me answer a few questions before you ask.

Yes, It is based on information readily available in the Daily Racing Form. As I've said before, DRF is my bible.

No. The system is not a be all, end all. It is one approach to picking long-shots.

Yes. Every example in the book was selected before the race.

No. It is not a quick-fix system. Once you identify the key factor, you still have to use your own judgment to solidify the play. (More on that in future posts).

Yes. I have already started another list of the system's successes. If there is enough response, I would like to make it a focus of the site's forum.

Yes. This blog continues.

Elusive Intentions

INTENTION is the great equalizer; the one ingredient in the handicapping process that remains elusive for every system--speed, condition or form-based.

Every horse in a race is not trying to win. "I've got him pointed for a race next week, so let him run his own race." Such a horse is just out for exercise. Maybe, it's a workout to find how the horse will run with or without the blinkers or new equipment. Or the wound is healing slower than expected. Sometimes, it's merely a jock who doesn't know that today is 'go' day.

Main problem is, the wagering fans don't know who is not trying--until after they plunk the money down.

In essence, we are all trying to handicap the intentions of the barn and the trainer. Today, I saw a 50-1 shot that could have run no worse than second if the jock had exerted the slightest effort. Unfortunately, it's not uncommon. I'm not suggesting it's illegal, just a natural part of the game.

It's the reason I ignore tips of any kind. The closest I came to hitting one was from an owner who was laying down $5,000 on the win end. I collected my $30 place bet. He lost. But, at least the horse tried.

Here are a few who were well-intended, today:

SMOKEYJONESSUTTON, second at 17-1 in Churchill's fourth
ROCK LOBSTER, second at 9-1 in Belmont's second
MISTICAL PLAN, third at 25-1 in Belmont's ninth

Long player survival: Use the favorite

I have always been and always will be a long shot player. It is part of my personal excitement to pick winners that are somehow overlooked. Fortunately, years ago, I had a partner who was more traditional. He wasn't a bridge-jumper, or anything, but he typically won more bets than me. When asked why, he replied, "I always use the favorite."

His simple piece of advice has made the difference to my profits at the track. Even, if I don't like the favorite, I use it--in a box with my long play, on the bottom of exactas, in the middle and bottom of triples, etc.

The fact is, that while favorites consistently win 30% of races. They are in the money more than 80% of the time. Let's expand this maxim to include top Beyer figs, who also win 30%.

The last group I use to surround my long-shot winners, often become the actual play when I can find no particular contender. Favorites or second favs win a full 50% of the races. Second favorites, are often perfect plays when you have no real opinion.

Ride'em Cotto

Don't know what happened to him once Pedro Cotto left the New York jockey colony. But, he sure is bringing in large priced winners at Monmouth. Hot jock alert. Give anything he rides a second look.

Same Focus/ Different 'u'

When I started this site I stated :"We are the typical $2 punters who support the game. At some point, or the other, the u in our name may stand for union…"

Well, the time is now for a name change. Our 'u' now officially stands for united.
Seems an enterprising outfit has registered the name horseplayer U, as a fan education site. Good luck with the venture.

We remain committed to strategies to help the $2 bettor.

Much of my effort has been devoted to pursuing a reliable longshot system--reported on, here, extensively. The 'monster move' system will soon be published at a separate site: horseplayerunited.com. It is a 90-page booklet, showing more than 60 examples. Details to follow.

This blog continues--with an updated logo.

Brown out/ Lesson in Humility

The elusive thoroughbred triple crown survives for the 31st year without a winner. Big Brown at odds of 1-4 ran up the track. My selections bottomed out. The only person I know who won the race was the proverbial novice who simply played her numbers, 4,6, and 1 (the one being Big Brown).

What occurs to me out of all the hype is a tremendous respect for horses that were able to complete the challenge, especially Affirmed and Secretariat.

As an aside, it also shows that the game itself will keep humans humble. No matter how much we want something to happen, it matters not. All the analysis, the Beyers, the tremendous margins of victory, the injury to major competition meant nothing.

The simple fact is, no horse in 31 years has been able to win all three triple crown races. That should be the starting point for all future handicapping of the prize–especially with wins in the first two legs. Talk about figure handicapping!

Prediction: Bombs Away in The Belmont

It was bound to happen. A major stakes race. Historically, the most important race in the triple crown. The type of race I casually pass as being too difficult. And, boom, I've got two long-shot selections based on the method I've been shouting about.

Saturday, June 7 in the Belmont Stakes; Big Brown's effort to become the first triple crown winner in 30 years, I will be betting both Tale of Ekati. and Macho Again to upset. Across the board wagers on both.

The majority of my bet will be on 'Tale.' His recent pps fit most closely to the system. The horse is 2 for 2 at Belmont. Importantly, trainer Barclay Tagg is an expert move trainer with a tremendous success rate.

I will bet with confidence.

Of course, as added insurance I will box both longshots with favorite Big Brown, then with each other.
Be advised, Casino Drive and Ichabad Crane, both have high Tomlison ratings for the distance.

If ever there was a test for my system, this is it, folks. Wish me luck.

Good luck with your own wagers!

Have faith, all ye doubters

Over the years, and because of the system, I have become decent at watching races. I see a bit more than the obvious. But it is not my forte.
Something I have noticed, rarely, are horses that don't want to win. I've only seen a few. They get every opportunity. reach the front, then stop running, or pull their heads back, anything not to finish first.

In my opinion, My Sister Diane at NYRA has long been a qualifier for this sad condition.

On June 1, she was entered in a 6-furlong turf race (the second part of the late double) after a layoff since October. I knew her odds would be balloons. In fact, she went off at 34-1. She would be ridden by one of my favorite long-shot riders, Jose Espinoza.

Problem is, she--and two others in the race--showed my long-shot move. One was destined to be small odds, the other a real bomb. What to do?

The system said she was a contender. Despite my doubts, I treated her as such. Upon further investigation into her past performances, I found an old 7f -turf race was one of her best Beyer numbers. The 6 furlongs on turf was new to most in this field.

I decided to have faith in my system. A $1 backwheel in the double cost me $7. An
8-1 shot won the 6th. Double was promising more than $500.

With 10 minutes to go, while explaining Sister's lack of winning determination--to my mother, of all people. I decided to back myself up. I wagered a $2 exacta box with the other (low odds) move. Then for extra security, I bet $6 to show.

From the gate, Espinoza had a fight on his hands, she steadied twice in the backstretch, refused to go through a hole on the fence in the stretch--and still he persevered, just missing the win by three-quarters of a length.

Without her 'no win' malady, Sister would have made me rich.
The winner? Thank, God it was my exacta boxer for $204. My Sister Diane paid $11.6 to show.

The point? Have faith in the system. Do what it indicates.

THIS WEEKEND IT'S SAKI TO ME, $44.80

After sudden rains drenched the Monmouth track, causing numerous scratches and the cancellation of turf racing, Saki to Me, became the lone standout Monster Move selection in the ninth race Little Silver Stakes. Before the mass defections, the system picked one other horse besides Saki as a play (on turf). With the other competiton scratched, and the surface change Saki was an easier wager. Coupled with favorite Forest Trail, the exacta came back $170. Saki paid $14.80 to place, $8.40 to show. Stay tuned.