Reinventing the wheel, again

Apologies for taking so long to update this page. I have been doing some rethinking about the site. The numbers say this is by far my most appealing blog. But it looks like folks visit and don't return. I am trying to post useful information that is not available elsewhere. Hence, the chart reviews I was doing.
Unfortunately, this info is limited only to two tracks and is too time consuming.
There is so much on the internet, it's difficult to do something unique.

The obvious answer would be to select and post winners before the race. Ultimately, it may be what I have to do. However, in the meantime, I am asking that you bear with me, while we reinvent our content.

Living in The Zone

There's nothing like being in the zone, when it comes to handicapping horses. Churchill Downs bid me a fond farewell on it's last day, with a $45 winner in the second race. Coupled with my second choice in the race, I took down a $305 exacta.

Over to the Big A, in the third race, I decided that Wayne Lukas was going to end his dry spell and begin to roll (make a note of it). Easy winner Legacy Thief paid $26, and in front of the favorite netted a $68 exacta.
Those who read this post, know Jockey Espinoza is my favorite long-shot rider. My confidence in him, snatched a $31,60 in the very next race. (I've got to figure out how to string these winners together in pick 3's.) That's later.
Today, they are not going to get me. I lost my wager in Churchill's 6th and am still way up. Without a very good reason, no more bets today.

You heard it here

Don't say I didn't tell you. Jockeys, I recommended on the NY circuit, are bringing them in. On November 17, Eddie Castro had a win. two seconds. and an important third. My longshot favorite Jose Espinoza just missed bringing home a bomb at 77-1, finished second, again at 13-1, third at 35-1 and third on veteran Evening Attire in the Stuyvesant (6-1). Alan Garcia, with a magnificent ride, just beat Espinoza on the 77-1 shot. In fact a box in the 5th race of Garcia, Espionza and Castro reteurned a $5,000 triple (No, I didn't do it). Garcia also won the Stuyvesant on Hunting at 10-1. Way to go, guys!

If only it was this easy

This true story answers the question about whether it's better to be lucky than good.
Wednesday, for no apparent reason, I decided to withdraw some money from my wagering account. For this to happen, several events had to fall into place. First of all, I had an obligation to meet in Manhattan on an 'official gridlock alert day.' I found parking. Secondly, the person I was lunching with-who is notoriously late--showed up early. Finally, traffic back to the Big A in Queens was unusually light, permitting me to arrive just after the 7th race. I withdrew the money.

With only two races to go, I bought 'the bible' for the following day, took a seat and bet the second favorite to win. He didn't. I was about to walk out when I noticed there was an abandoned Racing Form next to me.

I quickly scanned the last race, a horrible event--maiden claimers going long on the turf for the first time. Two of the dogs showed something similar to a racing pattern that I bet. One of them was being ridden by a jock I typically hate. The trainer was unknown to me.

Determined not to get hurt, I bet $2 on his horse to win, then $1 exacta-boxed him with the other pattern candidate. A total of $4, just for the hell of it.
Needless to say, they ran one-two around the track. Hate jockey won paying $60, the $1 exacta paid $297. I immediately withdrew half of the winnings--and canceled my bets for the following day (see 10/21/07 post).

Had I studied this race, I never would have played it. My only part was looking for a particular kind of running line. Luck is, no doubt, better than skill. It's an easy game.

It took about two minutes to handicap myself into $400. I will soon review products from another handicapping system called the "One Minute Handicapper." Can't wait? Find out about the one minute handicapper by clicking here

110807 Charts

Big A

1-RED HOT DAWN outrun , wide , going well outside.

2-RUBAIYAT was steadied start, raced inside and finished well
VIAGGIO leapt start, hustled to front, set the pace, tired.

4-BARRIER REEF outrun , rallied inside stretch, steadied in tight on rail deep
stretch, altered to outside, finished well.

5-P. J. INDY stumbled,outrun early, rallied stretch and finished game

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Church
1-LEGACY HUNTER, bumped soundly, forced out, steadied, raced inside, grazed the rail, four wide.

5-VAYA CON DIOS tracked pace four wide, loomed boldly, couldn't sustain

6-MISSING SEFA, outrun to stretch, circled seven wide, out-nodded .

7-EASY MONEY, in hand four wide, lacked room upper stretch, five wide.

8-BEAUFORT, well placed , steadied lacked room , four wide

110707 Charts

BigA

2 API MOHKAT stumbled at the start, close up inside, steadied ,d tired.

6 FORECOURT contested outside and tired
HALOS SAILING SAIN was bumped,stumbled, contested, tired.

7 STARVINSKY was bumped start, raced inside, came wide, finished well.
ADAGIO (GB) pressed the pace from the outside and tired in the final furlong.

8 SIBLEY was bumped, stumbled after the start, raced inside and rallied.
ANITA ROSITA was bumped at the start, chased three wide.

9 DESAFINADO was outrun , rallied three wide on, stayed well to the finish.
WALKABOUT WINNER was outrun , rallied widest ,going well late .
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

churchill

2 TRIPLE IT swerved in , was steadied, shut off CASEY'S JET,four wide, missed

4 CAPE COD BAY, forwardly placed inside start, moved outside the winner four wide for the drive, wound up inside SPIRIT LINE when that one drifted out late and was second best.

5 MAKEPEACE, outrun inside, bid seven wide , caught the leaders drove clear.

6 WON HAPPY BACHELOR, in tight, outrun seven wide to the stretch, going well at the end. NATIONAL PARK, outrun three wide, angled to the rail in the late going and finished well

10 CALL HER THE CAT, outrun for a half, rallied wide and was much the best of
others.

110407 Charts

Aqu

Race 2
Tate Tutt, set pace, under wraps, responded
Race 5
Perfect Arrival, outrun, altered, finished well
Noah H, pulled, vanned
Race 6
La Porta, close inside, rallied, finished well
Flyng Dixie, outrun, four wide, tired
Omnyut,, chased four wide, tired
Race 7
Boxitup, outrun, three wide, stayed well
Cordillean Ice, outrn, 3 wide, going well late
Race 9
Little Dovefeather, outrun, rallied, going well late
---------------------------------------------------
Churchill

Race 1
Shortcake, stalked, loomed, flattened
Race 2
Charley V, well placed, eased out, loomed, empty
Race 3
Scolara, sluggish, outrun, rallied, going well
Race 6
Johns' Road, outrun, advace six wide , going well

Out the window/A new direction

My apologies. Now that I have laid out all the steps to handicapping (my attempt to to up my game from $2 to $20), i realize that it's a wasted effort. I am furious. I have to throw the whole thing out.
The process I painstaking described above is viable, all things being equal. But, as evidenced by Aqueduct 2007, early speed is more important than any other factor.
I'm no track bias expert, but damn. Notorious quitters are opening up in the stretch after 'wicked' half times. First out, first in.
I haven't had video access to Churchill , the other track I play. But the doings at the Big A have made me extremely cautious. The system goes on hold.
One of my main goals with developing the system was to make it as automatic as possible. Now, it no longer fits the bill.

X-factors are why this game is so tough. As they say about poker, 'That's handicapping.'

During this learning struggle, I have decided to take this post in a whole new direction. Rather than report on my struggle to find the perfect handicapping system for me, I will post comments from charts across the country.

Stage two/ Starting over

Elimination done, I am usually left with about half of the field. These are the contenders
Now we get to the hard part.

Separate
Predict a Beyer number from contenders
Note top beyer at distance and last race
Validate superior Beyers (trouble line, bias)
Compare last two races for improvement
Analyze pace in real numbers

Additional credit for second finishers
Additional credit for fav and second favorite
Plot running of race

All other factors being equal (Beyer numbers, riders, etc.), the last item on the list usually yields my best result. I make a small diagram of the race track, plot the expected pre-stretch pace, and attempt to figure where each contender should be in the stretch.

When I can can find a horse with a clear advantage--at least three lengths or a 3-point Beyer number, at 3-1 or better--it's a bet. Most times it will be a pass

Here we go again/Starting over

As I begin the process of upgrading my game, I can't help but notice how many variables there are to just getting started. Remember, handicapping is a challenge--sort of like predicting the weather without the sophisticated equipment.
Your best chance is using information available in the Daily Racing Form.
That said, let's go

First of all, I will ignore:
Races less than six furlongs
Races more than 1 1/8 miles
Maiden claimers
The game is difficult enough without adding these buggers to the mix.

Here is my approach to the two-step process:

I will (immediately) eliminate:
Horses without a race at the exact distance
Not changing to a leading jockey
Not dropping in class
No finishes fourth within five lengths in two of last four run lines
Large weight change
Shows highest speed rating last race
Not within five of best speed rating (at distance)
Hasn't raced in 20 days ( trainer exception)
Winners (with exception)
Less than 1 win in every seven
Qualifying last race running line (trouble exceptions)
• In sprints. must show up close of 2 lengths at some point
• In distances, must show up close less than five lengths

These rules ought to get rid of the horses who are just out for exercise, or are not capable of winning today. I will take a second look at last race winners and keep those that seemed to have an easy time of it, or who might continue to improve.
Recency has always been a problem for me. The rule holds for cheap claimers. But in better races (Claim 50+. Allowance,etc.) I will be flexible enough to let trainer stats determine if the horse stays.

As Automatic As Possible

One of the reasons I started this site was to document and determine if, with patience and enough examination of the stats, I could move my game up from a $2 to a $20 bettor.
My next post was supposed to be a step-by-step approach to accomplishing that goal. For me to do that means, I have to become as automatic as possible.

When I play blackjack in Vegas, twice a year, I follow the basic rules to the letter. There is a prescribed action for every blackjack hand. No thinking, Just do it. Typically, I win money 7 out of 10 times I play. I need the same kind of structure in thoroughbred handicapping.

If successful, this will become my day-to-day basic system.
Like most systems, it will be a two-step approach:
• Eliminate the losers, and out for exercise horses.
• Separate the surviving contenders.

The next few posts will be dedicated to devising such a system, if possible. Stay tuned.

Last Golden Play Mention, until...

As I mentioned, I have a golden method that pays an average of 9-1.
For example, Saturday at Churchill, I daily-double wheeled Mott's horse in the first--and played $6 across the board. With two minutes to post, he was 12-1. He won, paying $14.8, $7.8, $7.8. Double with the favorite came back $60. Had it three times. My day was basically done.

However, in the eighth race, two of my method horses were running. The one I preferred is still running--at 19-1. The other? He finished second--losing by a head in a stretch-long battle---at 79-1. And, yielding $62 to place, $19 to show. If he wins, I hit the double. But, I had $2 place and show. I bet $8 across on the 19-1 loser.

Until I can decipher the key to separating these nags, I won't give out the method. You're invited to figure these horses, if you can. You will need the Daily Racing Form pps. In fact, this is the last time I will mention them until I can disclose the whole banana.