Branch: Just 'Beautiful' at 40-1

In a previous post, I questioned the decision of apprentice Kyle Branch in a race he rode my long shot selection third instead of a win. At the time, I promised to send him an invoice. Today, he paid the invoice in full with a luscious ride on monster move horse Beautiful LIfe, who paid $82. Coupled with another monster–Silver Babe–the exacta paid more than $400. The three moves in the race finished together for a $2000 triple return. Way to go Mr. Branch.

What is all the more puzzling is that 'Beautiful' had already run an improved last race off of his previous race move. How the public could let this gimme' get away is remarkable. Oh, that's right. They just looked at the Beyer numbers.

I guess nobody is reading my book.

FLUSH DAY CREATES NIRVANA
There is an emotion that's indescribable to folks who don't play horses. The closest I can get to a description is elation–maybe nirvana. All the pieces fall together; when unexpectedly you understand that in the next few minutes a long shot horse, that should be obvious to anyone is going to win the next race.

Only experience stops you from mortgaging your house, selling your clothes and belongings to wager on the good thing. Borrowing Base, 8-1, in Saratoga's eighth was that kind of horse for me. He won. My wager was more than usual. I am proud of myself for the control.

Why I am a $2 bettor: Monster Move version

After a short wagering sabbatical, during which I did lots of study, review and self-evaluation, I finally made my first bets at Saratoga. My records showed that I do well there on Mondays. No explanation. Just the fact.

The $60 in my telephone wagering account was hungry for action. But, I was determined to approach the card with the same patience I display at the blackjack and poker tables. Besides, during this meet they have rolling daily doubles–my favorite exotic bet. Need to take it slow.

There were two monster moves that jumped off the pages at me: Like Now, 3rd and Cagey Girl, 4th. Like Now was repeating a previous trainer winning tact but was up against a tough field. Additionally, the short odds were unappealing. So, just three token double bets.

So, I concentrated on Cagey Girl, who looked like she might get an easy lead on turf. She was 23-1. Rider Mike Luzzi–one of the few jocks I believe has a clock in his head–slowed the pace down enough for Cagey to win wire-to-wire at $47.6, $17, $8.4 completing a $127 double. Wager? $6 Win, Place. Thanks Mike!

The move is a monster when it connects.

Only one other bet today thanks to recognition of a trainer move by another Mike that returned $$41 to win.

Done for the day. Making out a withdrawal slip, right now.

Why I am a $2 bettor: The rant

If you're so @#$% smart...

Here's the kind of thinking I do, on sabbatical, while reviewing my wagering history:

I have always been amazed at how people who 'play' the thoroughbred 'game' are willing to be wrong. By definition, we are wrong most of the time. Yet, that doesn't stop us. Maybe it should, at least, slow us down.

How many times each day, each week, are you comfortable with being wrong at a cost of whatever your wagering unit is? It's different for each of us. I am still learning to wait for the right odds. My target is 9-1, but I'll happily accept 6-1.

When I am in Vegas, every other year or so, I can follow the blackjack rules to-the-letter. More often than not, I am happy with the outcome. Although I could never call myself a 'player' I hold my own in online poker by sitting and waiting for a superior hand. It may take 10 rounds. But, I do it. As a result, I usually have a seat at the final table.

I am searching for a similar approach to thoroughbred handicapping. The one thing I do know is that I still make too many bets.

Think you don't? Let's take the example of Curlin, admittedly the best horse in the world. Did you bet that he was going to win his first turf start, a few week ago? Based on what? Other than his reputation, there was nothing to suggest he should win. It was a bad bet.

We are offered bad betting situations every day. Success is directly tied to avoiding them. Translated for the hard core: If you don't know why you are betting and couldn't explain it–in detail–to a 5-year-old, maybe you shouldn't bet.

Nice idea; tough to do. Now, if I can just remember this rant when I start betting again.

Well-timed Break

Perfect timing on my wagering sabbatical. Mother Nature continues to wreak havoc by soaking Saratoga. And, I've been able to update the horseplayerunited.com website. Why not take a look.

Additionally, I've decided to paper test a reverse 6-2-1 betting method with the monster move system. That is; 1 betting unit to win, 2 betting units to place, and 6 units to show--when the horse is more than 15-1 at post. If the selection is average (9-1), I'll bet 1 unit to win and 3 units to place. At a glance, it seems this might be a perfect solution.

Weather scratches at sloppy Saratoga ruined prices on two possible moves. At Monmouth Park, Sonic Boom ran third at 16-1 to pay $7.

Wednesday Monster Moves

It's That Time, Again

The excuse for it, of course, is "I'm only human." This is one of those periods of time, when I zig where I should zag, and vice versa. It's called a losing streak. It happens to every horse player. On paper, I should be making a mint. In actuality my sync is off.
I know from experience that it will change. I just have to be patient (grrrr). This means no bets until things re-align and I'm sure about my decision making.

Naturally, during my abstinence I can expect to watch (as I am writing this) a lead-pipe selection to win by open lengths for an $80 exacta with the only other horse I like in the race (grrrr). Tough-noogies. In the long run, I'll be happy I took this break.

It will save me money and hopefully teach me something. And, Saratoga is a week away. Better times, ahead.

SECOND TRY FOR HERTLER AT 17-1 FALLS JUST SHORT
(see previous post) Rock Key in today's ninth nearly got there. Keep plugging, John.

Close, no cigar

Monster Move trainer John Hertler hoisted '1 for 64' apprentice Berrios Cruz on 7-year-old Classic Marilyn at 40-1 in Belmont's seventh race–an attempt to make his meet with one big score. The mare lead every step, but the last to pay $31.20 to place and $15.60 to show. She lost by one-half a length. Good try!

Maximizing the Monster

Now that I've proven–at length–that the Monster Move System works, I can turn my attention to the most important part of the handicapping equation: wagering.

Picking long-shot winners is fine. How do you bet them for the best return on investment? Until now, and because of the prices I am getting, I have been wagering equal amounts to win and place, and even show (when odds are more than 15-1)

Part of the challenge will be to make fewer bets by fine-tuning my selections.

However, with all the exotic wagering opportunities offered at the tracks (daily double, pick three, pick four, etc. ) I plan to research the best method for maximizing my average 9-1 winners in those pools.

Can't Lose, they say

If your game is only about making money, the statisticians claim you can't lose. Then, they trot out a wagering system that proves as long as you bet the same kind of horse and have a large enough bankroll, winning is a foregone conclusion.

The basis for this folly is setting a dollar goal per-bet, add losses from non-winners and according to the odds of your next selection wager enough to win back losses and the stated profit. I'm sure it works on paper.

Somehow, though, I can't fathom making a $334 win bet after losing four or five in a row. God forbid the new wagering amount should this bet lose.

Another new variable

The folks at Daily Racing Form (DRF) have added a new variable to the paper. Race shape or pace ratings must be something the fans have lobbied for.

They will probably an important part of the handicapping process. But, somehow, I must have missed the press release about what they are and how to use them. When I find out, I'll share.

The flash player instructional on reading the form has not yet been updated to include the new data.

Suggestion to DRF. How about doing a tutorial before–or simultaneously to–including new features?

Develop focus for daily play

One main reason handicapping remains an art and not a science is the infinite number of variables that impact each and every race––recency, class, speed, trainer intention etc. etc. To tame the wild beast experts, logically (sic), introduced an overload of more variables---track bias, trips, variants, bounce. et al.
Even the Beyer numbers are only as good as a horses' trip, trouble, surface, bias etc.

To quote 'Family Guy's' Peter Griffith, '"Two words. C'mon!."

My point? No single approach to the game works enough to rely on.

It would seem, to win consistently, the player must narrow his or her scope down to a very few factors or situations. Then, concentrate wagering in those spots.

For example, handicap only horses that finished second last time, or beaten favorites. Maybe, sprints on dirt only in nw 1 Allowance races. Or, as suggested by the book 'How Will Your Horse Run Today?,' focus--only-- on the top two favorites.

Wherever you focus, digest it. Refine it. Master it. Once that's done, return to your specialty or slowly add one other approach.

In any event, it beats trying to be all things to all races.