Forced Vacation

The pros suggest that even casual players take a certain period of time away from racing in order to regroup, reorganize and prepare for full scale assault. Well, with the Aqueduct inner-dirt track playing front-running favorites, and the west-coast weather following suit in California, I have been forced into a vacation from racing.
It never fails to amuse me, that periods like this always seem to happen, just when I am feeling super-confident about my ability to master this handicapping game.
Maybe, God is trying to tell me something.
I will heed the warnings--this time--and instead endeavor to explore the nature of the game. So, the content of my posts to this site, for a period, will be about just that--the game and it's nature.
Perhaps when things normalize and I am done with these evaluations, I will be better able to accomplish my handicapping mission. Stay tuned.

Big A January 20: Ditto

See previous post about January 19

Make note of Big A bias day--January 19

One of the things I hate most about winter racing at Aqueduct is the propensity of the inner dirt track to favor front runners on the rail. Today, January 19, was the pinnacle of that trend. Ironically, it was billed as a day to celebrate 10-year-old Evening Attire a notorious closer. Naturally, despite a valiant effort, he lost.

Fortunately--this time-- I was able to take advantage of this ridiculous bias. The prescription––as usual––for most of the races, was first out, first in.
Pace times made no difference. The front runners were approximating the speed of sound and still holding on. I suspected the trend in race two, when a maiden named,-- Hot Rail--ran quarters of 21.3, 45, 57, and was challenged to the top of the stretch but drew off by five before surviving at 5.5 furlongs.

I adjusted my handicapping, accordingly and caught these wire-to-wire winners: Lee Stewart, $23.6 stretching out in the fourth, Marina Market, $25.8, repeating in the fifth, Cash for Gold, $9.9 in the sixth and the first part of a $50 double.

Keep watch of the day's charts for middle move horse and closers who had no chance, but still ran well. Of note, watch for Helene's Dream who finished third at 30-1 in the seventh. Down play the performances of horses who took advantage of the bias. Few repeaters, if any, among them.

I, hereby, resolve...

One of the unexpected benefits of posting to this blog is that I have learned a lot about my own horseplay. In attempting to explain what I see, do and why, I have begun to regain the kind of confidence it takes to win consistently. For the first time, in a while, I feel it's possible to advance my game.

In that spirit, at the beginning of a new year, thoroughbred racing is a perfect place to develop some guidelines, if not resolutions.

• I will reduce the number of wagers I make by at least 40%. As opinionated as I am, I can't answer yes to almost every bet offer. It's stupid. I will find two or three patterns that I can reasonably rely on for a profit. And, stick to them.

• I will develop a clear-cut profile of the kinds of horses, races, conditions and distances I win with.

• I will find out what constitutes a real edge for the types of horses I like.

• I will include the favorite in every exotic bet, even if only in second place.

• Overall, in my selection process, I will adhere as close as possible, to recorded statistics about thoroughbred racing. To that end, I will develop realistic expectations about betting, price and value.

Golden, again

Today. With two minutes to post, I opened the DRF past performances on my computer desktop for Fairgounds Race Track. It was obviously a bunch of dogs, not meant to concern the minds of serious handicappers. Yet, there was one horse, that showed a semblance of the golden move I regularly play. Had seen the jock's name. Again, nothing notable. I quickly punched the nag's number into my betting account, posting $2 win and place.

Well, according to the chart, Dorcheat Captain, won by two lengths , and paid $89.2 to win, $26.8 to place--easily making my day. Imagine what I can do when I figure out the missing pieces of this puzzle.

For example, three, even four, horses in the seventh at the Big A show this move. How do I separate them? What makes one move more real than the others? Even the result didn't give me a clue.

FYI, the book is already written. This year, I intend to release the method behind these golden winners, whether it's completely solved or not. In fact, you already have access to the same information right in the form. Think you got it? Let me know.