How to pick a $97 winner/ Sweat the details to win

After a holiday sabbatical from racing, I returned to 'the game' with a bit of success.
The final day at the big A started me off with a bang as I selected a $97 winner. How? Simple, I looked at the details in the past performances. Coupled with some knowledge about Carol Cedeno being a better jockey than is understood on the NY circuit. And, giving credit to underrated trainer John Pregman.

No Allegiance, while finishing out of the money in the last four races, had competed against 44. first quarters at out of town tracks. Fastest horse in this field might mount a 45.2. The horse was also dropping to the lowest class level in his pps. Knowing that the inner track has been favoring speed, also helped.
I won't go so far as to say I singled No Allegiance. But he was worth a $4 win bet--and a couple of double plays which did not connect.
Unfortunately, the game No Allegiance collapsed just past the finish line and hand to be destroyed. A pity.

At Fairgrounds, race 1, the overwhelming favorite--an Asmussen/Bridgemohan special was going off at 1-5. That was enough, for me to throw her out. After examining the pps, I noticed that trainer Sam David owns a 19% win rate with firsters. Even though I am not a favorite of Jockey Zimmerman, the two seemed--in this stiuation--like Batman and Robin. This called for a small win bet on his horse, Can'tstopthisstorm, and my third selection. Additionally, wheeled the firster in the double. I was rewarded with $13 to win. And, as of this writing, am awaiting a double result and price.

Welcome back .

Unorthodox methods of play/ as good as any

Several years ago, I spent a day at Tampa Bay racetrack with a good friend I was visiting for the Thanksgiving holiday. Since Tampa was only running a simulcast card, we were somewhat disappointed.

She had never been to the track and wanted to know what to do. Rather than go through the confusion of explaining handicapping to a newcomer, I came up with the idea that we would simply exacta box two numbers all day long. Box 3 and 8, I told her. Why those numbers, I'll never know. I would follow suit. I showed her how and what to say to the clerk--then how to make sure she got the right ticket.
Naturally, if I saw something worth a bet, I would make an additional wager.

The first race in New York ran 38, paying $29 for a two-dollar ticket. She was ecstatic. "No matter what happens the rest of the day, I won at the track." Little did either of us know how true that would be.

Well, we didn't hit every race, at every track, but damn near! We even hit the 38 exacta at dog races, even at jai-alai, with the 8 winning an abnormal twice that day. Because of her exuberant celebrations, those nearby began to ask me about what system I was using, would I share it, etc.. I had no answer.

When it was over, we had cleared nearly $800, effortlessly. I still don't think she believes that it doesn't happen that way all the time.

My point is that anything can work for a period of time.

Since then, I have noticed that certain exacta numbers seem to run together. I regularly box 2 and 7 (see Breeders Cup posts) if I like either on the win end. The results of such stabbing are phenomenal.

I am not a trifecta player. But while waiting for a particular race, I will sometimes look at out of town tracks and key the third favorite and one or two long shots on top of two odds on favorites in the triple. Amazingly, it works often enough for me to show a profit with that bet.

Record keeping experiment

At the end of the year, and with so few quality races, I decided to develop a win profile,
for myself, I created the pictured tracking form which I will fill-in from DRF winner result charts. Information in the gray areas will come from past performance lines.

Here is the key to the factors I am watching. Insert your own.
R= recency (for me 20 days)
EX= exotic
2L=finished 2nd last race
2FAV= second favorite
BEYER = top 3 beyers
QRN= qual. running line
QD=qual distance
PS= horse lead at top of stretch last race

I will show a few filled forms once I get started.

Box score follow up

One factor I forgot to mention about the DRF box score. To the left of a horse's distance performance sit the nag's performance on the current track. Some horses only win on the inner-dirt track at Aqueduct. Many show 0 for 7. It's pretty easy to act accordingly. Check it out.

DRF: More than pps; key to long shots

Anyone who reads my posts knows I am a $2 bettor. Since, i play the game to make money, I can't afford to take low prices on solid horses. I'm a long shot specialist. What this means is I have to search for different horses than, merely, the top Beyer number in every race. Sometimes they are a value price, but not often enough.

The Daily Racing Form--my bible--provides several typically overlooked features in past performances, that are key to solid long shots.

First up is the horse's box score. It not only tells you number of starts, wins, places, and shows and money earned. Importantly, it gives number of starts at a distance and the horse's best Beyer for same. I start my handicapping, right here. For every race, I identify those with the best distance figures. I quickly weed out horses experimenting, or with little chance.

Secondly. I am more than interested in who is training and riding a horse. How does a trainer do in the called for situation? Moreover, I note if they have a successful history together. It's uncanny how often this data outweighs everything else--at lucrative prices. I have, repeatedly, caught $40 and $70 winners because the fit is just right.

Several handicapping strategies ask the player to identify 'the stranger,' in a race. They are talking about horses. I am more interested in why a leading jockey is riding a horse for an unknown trainer, listed in the morning line at 6-1, going off at 15-1. Pay attention to this factor and it will often give you clues to a large pay off.

Horsicide day: Lights out!

It's days like these that make me want to quit this game. And, I have--at least for the rest of December 9.
Since I am posting this blog, I will try to make it a lesson for myself, as well as readers. Let me start by saying I just realized (admitted?) that nothing disturbs me more than picking a longshot winner and not betting it. It has dawned on me how much a factor this idea is in deciding whether to bet or not. Obviously, all too often I make the bet, often when I shouldn't. (Note to self: change it)

The second highest thing on my irate chart is when my horse is supposed to win and doesn't. This is especially true when a foul is called to the attention of the stewards and they take no action. (Note to self: write something on bonehead stewards).

Both incidents happened today at Aqueduct in back to back races. So forgive me while I attempt to remove my feet from a place they don't belong in my body.

Incident one: Serious Vow, 9-1, in race 3 had chased a 1:09.1 pace in his previous race before tiring in the stretch. It would be facing nothing in this race to compare with that type of pace. The two favorites had large Beyers, popular trainers--and that's all. At the top of the stretch, jockey Arroyo had a handful of horse, began to make a winning move on the 3/5 leader when the second favorite rallies outside and the two scissor block Serious Vow nearly over the fence. The guardians of the game, didn't think it was enough to post the inquiry sign Trainer Carlos Martin had to claim foul. And we all know what that means. No change. It was a winner. Even if it finishes third, I make a profit. Aargh!


Incident two: In the very next race (a 5 1/2f maiden claimer which I supposedly do not to play) I notice two horses with my favorite long-shot patterns. The longest does not exactly fit the model. But with two overbet, suspect favorites, my normal --casual--bet involves keying my horses on top of the two favorites in a triple. Then win bets on each.

Nothing normal about today. Still griping about the 3rd race. I , merely, box my two long-shots and don't bet triples or to win. Carms Gold Warrior pays $57, the two favorites do their duty for a $984 triple. Of course, my other long-shot ran fourth completing a $6600 super. Return on investment: donut. Aaarrggghh!


Anybody got a "jaws of life?"

Tank McNamara Disease rampant at NYRA

The Sedlacek family has been training around the NYRA circuit for dozens of years. Sue, Michael, Roy et al have been relatively successful at the game. How they must cringe, every time one of their charges wins and has to be announced by the likes of NYRA's John Imbriale, Jan Rushden and recently Eric Donovan .

For their information, the name, phonetically, is SED•LA•CHECK, not SED•LAK as they so proudly announce. Tom Durkin, official race announcer, never makes this mistake. The fact that the other lazy-tongued group can't take the time to get someone's name right is indicative of their level of unprofessionalism. It is a disgrace.
Years ago, I encountered Imbriale at the track, and asked him, wryly, about the pronunciation. Naturally, with his smug, no time for the fan attitude, he asserted that Sedlak was indeed the proper way. Who do you think you're fooling?

World famous cartoon newscaster Tank McNamara (pictured), couldn't for the life of him, say 'sports news.' It always came out 'norts spews.' But then, he is a cartoon character. What are you folks?

It's About Time

Time is an important factor in handicapping thoroughbreds.
Once you get through with the 'no sh-t Sherlock' remarks, I will continue. I am not talking about race time, pace time, or post time.

What I am concerned with here, is the amount of time one is willing to put into deciphering a race or a race card. What and when does it become not worth it,
Obviously it's a personal decision. For reality sake, it's one that must be made.

Unless you are a pro player, I imagine you've got other things in life to do than spend hours pouring over the form for the selection you might come up with that returns $6 for $2. Then there are the race replays to watch for trouble and trip horses. Don't forget the result chart key race and comment studies.

How much of this can you do without destroying your enjoyment of the game? As mentioned, previously, one of the things that most frustrates me about handicapping is the lack of automatic bets. The closest it comes is a lone speed horse, getting loose on a slow-paced lead. Much of my success in the game is tied to these situations.

Because they are so rare, I have had to develop the kind of patience that doesn't come naturally to me. This reality has made me become a spot player.

For time-saving purposes, I therefore avoid these kinds of races.
• Races shorter than 6F and longer that 1 1/8 mile.
• All two year old maidens
• Maiden claimers without a dropping MSW horse
• Claimers for horses that have not won more than once
• Races where not one horse has competed at the required distance.
• Races populated completely by second-tier jockeys
• Most grade 1 and 2 stakes. Grade 3's hold opportunities.

Doesn't seem to leave much, does it? On any given day at the tracks I play, I can only find one race worthy of investigation.

After that, If I can't select a play within 40 minutes, the day is done.