I have always been and always will be a long shot player. It is part of my personal excitement to pick winners that are somehow overlooked. Fortunately, years ago, I had a partner who was more traditional. He wasn't a bridge-jumper, or anything, but he typically won more bets than me. When asked why, he replied, "I always use the favorite."His simple piece of advice has made the difference to my profits at the track. Even, if I don't like the favorite, I use it--in a box with my long play, on the bottom of exactas, in the middle and bottom of triples, etc.
The fact is, that while favorites consistently win 30% of races. They are in the money more than 80% of the time. Let's expand this maxim to include top Beyer figs, who also win 30%.
The last group I use to surround my long-shot winners, often become the actual play when I can find no particular contender. Favorites or second favs win a full 50% of the races. Second favorites, are often perfect plays when you have no real opinion.
