INTENTION is the great equalizer; the one ingredient in the handicapping process that remains elusive for every system--speed, condition or form-based.
Every horse in a race is not trying to win. "I've got him pointed for a race next week, so let him run his own race." Such a horse is just out for exercise. Maybe, it's a workout to find how the horse will run with or without the blinkers or new equipment. Or the wound is healing slower than expected. Sometimes, it's merely a jock who doesn't know that today is 'go' day.
Main problem is, the wagering fans don't know who is not trying--until after they plunk the money down.
In essence, we are all trying to handicap the intentions of the barn and the trainer. Today, I saw a 50-1 shot that could have run no worse than second if the jock had exerted the slightest effort. Unfortunately, it's not uncommon. I'm not suggesting it's illegal, just a natural part of the game.
It's the reason I ignore tips of any kind. The closest I came to hitting one was from an owner who was laying down $5,000 on the win end. I collected my $30 place bet. He lost. But, at least the horse tried.
Here are a few who were well-intended, today:
SMOKEYJONESSUTTON, second at 17-1 in Churchill's fourth
ROCK LOBSTER, second at 9-1 in Belmont's second
MISTICAL PLAN, third at 25-1 in Belmont's ninth
