Recency is the one factor that gives me fits. Since the late 70s, trainers have been able to improve or maintain a horse's form for longer and longer periods of time.
Some, like Mike Hushion and Bruce Levine in New York are experts.
Used to be that a recent group of races and workouts signaled the trainer's intention. It still applies today, but it's harder to read. Also, how valid is a two months old Beyer figure--even if it is the nag's most recent?
Despite the dilemma, I try to handle recency this way:
• Prefer any horse who has run within 21 days.
• I make exceptions for trainers with a Daily Racing Form record (bottom of pps) that shows they can bring back a winner over longer periods.
• The horse must show that it can compete (first, second, third) after a previous similar layoff
• Extra kudos for a horse that has raced within seven to ten days.
Because it is written in stone, I use the last race Beyer. But, note, that a previous non-negotiable rule requires a Beyer at the specific distance of today's race. This keeps things in perspective.
I hesitate to bet any real money (for me, more than $5 in the win pool) on any horse off more than 21 days.
