In almost any other endeavor, creativity is rewarded. You know, the 'thinking out of the box' medal. Conversely, thoroughbred handicapping typically punishes straying from the rules. One can stray, all right, but only inside of the box.
Stated plainly: rigid adherence, seemingly, leads to profits.
It's been my experience that the most important rule in handicapping was stated by Tom Ainslie, years ago,
"Never bet a horse to do something it has not already done."
A broad statement, indeed. Think about it. Then, go over your most recent bets. How much could you have saved by following this basic maxim? How many losers could you have eliminated? This rule is absolute!
I learned to approach the handicapping task in two steps:
1. Eliminate the losers.
(See below)
2. Evaluate the remaining contenders.
There are so many approaches to selecting winners, that it's tough to know which rules are worth their weight in allegiance? And, which can be tossed. Choose your own
In any event, the first part of this dance is significantly more important. Here are a few suggestions:
These are Non- negotiable
Eliminate any horse that hasn't finished 4th within 5 lengths in two of the last four races
Eliminate any horse that does not show a Beyer at the exact distance of today's race.
Eliminate any horse that does not show an average of one win in every seven starts
Elimination Rules with allowable exceptions
Eliminate any horse not being ridden by a leading jockey, or a rider who has won with the animal before. Exception: A documented trainer/jockey combination that shows 15% or more success in the daily racing form
Remember, this is my approach. Nothing is written in stone. Hats off if you can be successful without the above. This is what works for me. More to come...
