Elimination done, I am usually left with about half of the field. These are the contenders
Now we get to the hard part.
Separate
Predict a Beyer number from contenders
Note top beyer at distance and last race
Validate superior Beyers (trouble line, bias)
Compare last two races for improvement
Analyze pace in real numbers
Additional credit for second finishers
Additional credit for fav and second favorite
Plot running of race
All other factors being equal (Beyer numbers, riders, etc.), the last item on the list usually yields my best result. I make a small diagram of the race track, plot the expected pre-stretch pace, and attempt to figure where each contender should be in the stretch.
When I can can find a horse with a clear advantage--at least three lengths or a 3-point Beyer number, at 3-1 or better--it's a bet. Most times it will be a pass
