As I begin the process of upgrading my game, I can't help but notice how many variables there are to just getting started. Remember, handicapping is a challenge--sort of like predicting the weather without the sophisticated equipment.
Your best chance is using information available in the Daily Racing Form.
That said, let's go
First of all, I will ignore:
Races less than six furlongs
Races more than 1 1/8 miles
Maiden claimers
The game is difficult enough without adding these buggers to the mix.
Here is my approach to the two-step process:
I will (immediately) eliminate:
Horses without a race at the exact distance
Not changing to a leading jockey
Not dropping in class
No finishes fourth within five lengths in two of last four run lines
Large weight change
Shows highest speed rating last race
Not within five of best speed rating (at distance)
Hasn't raced in 20 days ( trainer exception)
Winners (with exception)
Less than 1 win in every seven
Qualifying last race running line (trouble exceptions)
• In sprints. must show up close of 2 lengths at some point
• In distances, must show up close less than five lengths
These rules ought to get rid of the horses who are just out for exercise, or are not capable of winning today. I will take a second look at last race winners and keep those that seemed to have an easy time of it, or who might continue to improve.
Recency has always been a problem for me. The rule holds for cheap claimers. But in better races (Claim 50+. Allowance,etc.) I will be flexible enough to let trainer stats determine if the horse stays.
