Wednesday, January 9, 2008

I, hereby, resolve...

One of the unexpected benefits of posting to this blog is that I have learned a lot about my own horseplay. In attempting to explain what I see, do and why, I have begun to regain the kind of confidence it takes to win consistently. For the first time, in a while, I feel it's possible to advance my game.

In that spirit, at the beginning of a new year, thoroughbred racing is a perfect place to develop some guidelines, if not resolutions.

• I will reduce the number of wagers I make by at least 40%. As opinionated as I am, I can't answer yes to almost every bet offer. It's stupid. I will find two or three patterns that I can reasonably rely on for a profit. And, stick to them.

• I will develop a clear-cut profile of the kinds of horses, races, conditions and distances I win with.

• I will find out what constitutes a real edge for the types of horses I like.

• I will include the favorite in every exotic bet, even if only in second place.

• Overall, in my selection process, I will adhere as close as possible, to recorded statistics about thoroughbred racing. To that end, I will develop realistic expectations about betting, price and value.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Golden, again


Today. With two minutes to post, I opened the DRF past performances on my computer desktop for Fairgounds Race Track. It was obviously a bunch of dogs, not meant to concern the minds of serious handicappers. Yet, there was one horse, that showed a semblance of the golden move I regularly play. Had seen the jock's name. Again, nothing notable. I quickly punched the nag's number into my betting account, posting $2 win and place.

Well, according to the chart, Dorcheat Captain, won by two lengths , and paid $89.2 to win, $26.8 to place--easily making my day. Imagine what I can do when I figure out the missing pieces of this puzzle.

For example, three, even four, horses in the seventh at the Big A show this move. How do I separate them? What makes one move more real than the others? Even the result didn't give me a clue.

FYI, the book is already written. This year, I intend to release the method behind these golden winners, whether it's completely solved or not. In fact, you already have access to the same information right in the form. Think you got it? Let me know.