At some point I'm going to examine why I do better at the end of a racing day than the beginning. Heeding my own practice of taking it slow the day after a huge score, today, I was getting bored. Every contender I selected at Belmont and Monmouth was a wagering stand-out that won. No movers, no bets.
In desperation, I closely examined the final race at Belmont, looking for some clue to at least give me a jolt of excitement. It was a 7 furlong grass race. Again, the obvious horses, on paper, looked unbeatable. Both were 2-1.
Then, I noticed a stranger. Slick Wheelie showed no starts on turf, with three-rained-out attempts to do so. Importantly, he was being ridden by one of my top favorite jocks: Rajiv Maragh. What was going on?
Closer examination of the jock's success with respectable trainer Bruce Brown, showed the two score at 29% this year and a 19% rate in 2008. Additionally, Brown has a stellar rate with first timers on the turf, and dirt to turf starters. (This info is available in the Daily Racing Form pps). The evidence was mounting.
All in all, Maragh/ Brown deserved a stab. At 14-1, I bet $5 win and place. For good measure, I confidently wagered $10 to show--certain that the team would be trying.
Wheelie won, going away at a 47-1. I guess patience really is a virtue
