If you're so @#$% smart...
Here's the kind of thinking I do, on sabbatical, while reviewing my wagering history:
I have always been amazed at how people who 'play' the thoroughbred 'game' are willing to be wrong. By definition, we are wrong most of the time. Yet, that doesn't stop us. Maybe it should, at least, slow us down.
How many times each day, each week, are you comfortable with being wrong at a cost of whatever your wagering unit is? It's different for each of us. I am still learning to wait for the right odds. My target is 9-1, but I'll happily accept 6-1.
When I am in Vegas, every other year or so, I can follow the blackjack rules to-the-letter. More often than not, I am happy with the outcome. Although I could never call myself a 'player' I hold my own in online poker by sitting and waiting for a superior hand. It may take 10 rounds. But, I do it. As a result, I usually have a seat at the final table.
I am searching for a similar approach to thoroughbred handicapping. The one thing I do know is that I still make too many bets.
Think you don't? Let's take the example of Curlin, admittedly the best horse in the world. Did you bet that he was going to win his first turf start, a few week ago? Based on what? Other than his reputation, there was nothing to suggest he should win. It was a bad bet.
We are offered bad betting situations every day. Success is directly tied to avoiding them. Translated for the hard core: If you don't know why you are betting and couldn't explain it–in detail–to a 5-year-old, maybe you shouldn't bet.
Nice idea; tough to do. Now, if I can just remember this rant when I start betting again.
