One of the things I hate most about winter racing at Aqueduct is the propensity of the inner dirt track to favor front runners on the rail. Today, January 19, was the pinnacle of that trend. Ironically, it was billed as a day to celebrate 10-year-old Evening Attire a notorious closer. Naturally, despite a valiant effort, he lost.
Fortunately--this time-- I was able to take advantage of this ridiculous bias. The prescription––as usual––for most of the races, was first out, first in.
Pace times made no difference. The front runners were approximating the speed of sound and still holding on. I suspected the trend in race two, when a maiden named,-- Hot Rail--ran quarters of 21.3, 45, 57, and was challenged to the top of the stretch but drew off by five before surviving at 5.5 furlongs.
I adjusted my handicapping, accordingly and caught these wire-to-wire winners: Lee Stewart, $23.6 stretching out in the fourth, Marina Market, $25.8, repeating in the fifth, Cash for Gold, $9.9 in the sixth and the first part of a $50 double.
Keep watch of the day's charts for middle move horse and closers who had no chance, but still ran well. Of note, watch for Helene's Dream who finished third at 30-1 in the seventh. Down play the performances of horses who took advantage of the bias. Few repeaters, if any, among them.
