If I ever wrote a book about thoroughbred handicapping, I'd start off with the facts. Most authors are so busy convincing you of their systems that they bury the facts in appendixes. The fact is:
• One of the top two betting favorites win 50% of the races
• One of the four betting favorites win 80% of the time
• Favorites run in the money something like 70% of the time
Seems logical to me to construct an approach to the game which concentrates only on four horses each race. I am sure somebody has, although I haven't seen it.
On a typical nine race card this translates into:
• Seven winners among the four lowest
odds horses (including, the favorite, of course).
• Favorites will win three races
• One race will produce a long-shot
Simple system
When I am casually handicapping, don't have the form or a strong opinion and don't want to pass the race:
• I bet the second favorite (2-1 or better) to win. These nags usually offer more value than the favorite and pay surprisingly well
• I play two automatic exactas,
-One box with the third favorite,
-Second favorite in front of the favorite.
This costs me a mere $8 (at $2 each). As gravy, I may play the second favorite in front on two more exactas. It's simple and keeps me from getting hurt too badly. I get a decent amount of winners and some very satisfying exactas payoffs.
If you use it, hang in for the long pull. Consistency is key.
