Saturday, November 29, 2008

Beyond the last running line

My pursuit of 'monster move' mastery has caused me to read DRF past performances more completely. Like most systems, it begins with evaluation of the last race a horse has run. By definition this race is always less than stellar. So, I have to dig deeper to justify a wager.

For instance, the last race line for Dirty Water Dog in Aqueduct's ninth race, yesterday shows he finished 10th, nearly 20 lengths behind, as an odds-on favorite. He was claimed by trainer Chad Brown off of a win, in the race before. Closer pp investigation shows these virtues:

• 'Dirty' won 3 out of seven starts, with 1 third
• He had the second best Beyer at the distance and the surface
• His odds, before yesterday, were never longer than 5-1
• Importantly, trainer Brown won 42% when he legged up jockey Lezcano

The results? Dirty paid $14, $8.7, $6 completing a $95 daily double, catching the other move horse in the race who went off at nearly 40-1, for a $388 exacta.

The move is a monster--with benefits.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

60-1 wheel at Big A; 22-1 win at Church

So, what's to say? I've been telling anyone who will listen. Matter of fact, I'm going to stop talking. As soon as I let you know that in the eighth double at Aqueduct, today, I back-wheeled Good and Loud. Yup. It cost me $6. Horse was 60-1
I had no opinion in the eighth. That's right. Back-wheeled. Despite his obvious shortcomings, Good and Loud,was also a classic 'monster move.' As the major promoter of the system, I had no choice. Since I already was going to make a mint if he won, I bet this long-shot to place and show. (Knowing Mike Sedlacek is a move trainer and that Erick Lopez can ride, sealed the deal). He won by open lengths. Look at the chart. Double paid $417 for $2.

At about the same time, at Churchill Downs, move horse Grinding Miss was paying off on my across the board bet in the seventh at Churchill Downs. Not being a fan of jock Orlando Mojica, I originally had crossed this horse off my plays list until I saw trainer Montgomery's outstanding 40% record when he uses him. Thanks DRF.

The move is a monster when it hits!