Sunday, November 4, 2007

As Automatic As Possible

One of the reasons I started this site was to document and determine if, with patience and enough examination of the stats, I could move my game up from a $2 to a $20 bettor.
My next post was supposed to be a step-by-step approach to accomplishing that goal. For me to do that means, I have to become as automatic as possible.

When I play blackjack in Vegas, twice a year, I follow the basic rules to the letter. There is a prescribed action for every blackjack hand. No thinking, Just do it. Typically, I win money 7 out of 10 times I play. I need the same kind of structure in thoroughbred handicapping.

If successful, this will become my day-to-day basic system.
Like most systems, it will be a two-step approach:
• Eliminate the losers, and out for exercise horses.
• Separate the surviving contenders.

The next few posts will be dedicated to devising such a system, if possible. Stay tuned.

Last Golden Play Mention, until...


As I mentioned, I have a golden method that pays an average of 9-1.
For example, Saturday at Churchill, I daily-double wheeled Mott's horse in the first--and played $6 across the board. With two minutes to post, he was 12-1. He won, paying $14.8, $7.8, $7.8. Double with the favorite came back $60. Had it three times. My day was basically done.

However, in the eighth race, two of my method horses were running. The one I preferred is still running--at 19-1. The other? He finished second--losing by a head in a stretch-long battle---at 79-1. And, yielding $62 to place, $19 to show. If he wins, I hit the double. But, I had $2 place and show. I bet $8 across on the 19-1 loser.

Until I can decipher the key to separating these nags, I won't give out the method. You're invited to figure these horses, if you can. You will need the Daily Racing Form pps. In fact, this is the last time I will mention them until I can disclose the whole banana.