It's a popular concept that jocks have a clock in their head. The ability is used to 'guesstimate' the pace times during a race that will leave their nags enough energy for a solid finish.
From time to time, though, nobody turns their clocks on. Such was the case in Friday's sixth race at Aqueduct. It was a non-speedy event run at a mile in 1:42 by My Dinah, a horse who has trouble finding the winner's circle. The pace times tell the true story (25.2, 50.2, 115.1, 1:41.3)
Recognizing that the inner-dirt track has been favoring speed, apprentice Sheldon Russell sent Charming Mandate to the lead. That, in itself, should have been a clue to the other jocks riding in the race. On paper, three of them could have run a second quarter in the 47's. Mandate, at best, does 49. Yet, they waited...and, waited...and waited. Having loafed six furlongs in 1:15, Dinah had more than enough left to hold off Wyatt's Women (my 17-1 mover).
Kudos to jockey Victor Santiago for his belated attempt at the win. My guess is he could have won, easily, with an earlier move. But. we'll never know.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
More BOOM for the buck$
You never get used to it. Although, you find yourself screaming the celebratory "BOOM" several times a week. The feeling is Indescribable; watching your long shot 'monster move' selection pull away in the stretch for a convincing victory at unbelievably generous odds. Especially, at the Big A (home of the 1-5 shot).
This time it was Kat's Mystery at 14-1 completing a $148 double and never really threatened by a the 3-2 favorite that rallied for second-money. Automatically, I bet the mover across the board, as well, for $32.6, 11.6, 6.2. But this was merely an appetizer.
Kat was the second leg of an early pick three ticket with four horses, including Future Prospect, my highest rated horse in race three Prospect wasn't a mover, but he went off at 8-1.
Masterful jockey Rajiv Maragh dragged every inch of heart out of the horse to complete a consecutive daily double at $295--and my $960 pick-three ticket.
ADDENDUM TO MARCH 19. The Es El You singled pick-three, came back $739.80! (mover Witch Doctor X, at 47-1, nearly won the race and would have guaranteed me a larger payoff since I had him connect wheeled. However, he was disaqualified from second-by a nose-and place fourth. Whew!)
This time it was Kat's Mystery at 14-1 completing a $148 double and never really threatened by a the 3-2 favorite that rallied for second-money. Automatically, I bet the mover across the board, as well, for $32.6, 11.6, 6.2. But this was merely an appetizer.
Kat was the second leg of an early pick three ticket with four horses, including Future Prospect, my highest rated horse in race three Prospect wasn't a mover, but he went off at 8-1.
Masterful jockey Rajiv Maragh dragged every inch of heart out of the horse to complete a consecutive daily double at $295--and my $960 pick-three ticket.
ADDENDUM TO MARCH 19. The Es El You singled pick-three, came back $739.80! (mover Witch Doctor X, at 47-1, nearly won the race and would have guaranteed me a larger payoff since I had him connect wheeled. However, he was disaqualified from second-by a nose-and place fourth. Whew!)
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Movers make a wheel to remember
After all the agonizing; when the re-reviews of the past performances is done for the sixth time; a horse player has only completed one-half of the handicapping equation. The second, and often, most important part of finding a decent selection is knowing how and when to bet it for maximum return.
Because move horses typically pay 9-1 and up, I choose to focus on straight betting. However, when the clues seem to indicate my mover is strong, I concentrate my win pool betting with a double-wheel. Move horses in both double races require an extra linking double bet.
Such was the case today in the first at Fairgrounds. Geaux Midey Mike was an instant qualifier. The favorite in the race was going off at 3-5, so no show bet was possible. I bet win and place then wheeled Geaux in the double. The horse paid $15.2, $5.2 and combined wth Ess El You (another stand out move in the second race, who won by 5) to complete a $332 dd payoff ( I had it twice). Ess returned $54.4, $25.5, $12.2. As of this writing the $54 horse is a single in the next pick three.
My wagering is over for the day.
Imagine what I'll do when I completely master the system.
Because move horses typically pay 9-1 and up, I choose to focus on straight betting. However, when the clues seem to indicate my mover is strong, I concentrate my win pool betting with a double-wheel. Move horses in both double races require an extra linking double bet.
Such was the case today in the first at Fairgrounds. Geaux Midey Mike was an instant qualifier. The favorite in the race was going off at 3-5, so no show bet was possible. I bet win and place then wheeled Geaux in the double. The horse paid $15.2, $5.2 and combined wth Ess El You (another stand out move in the second race, who won by 5) to complete a $332 dd payoff ( I had it twice). Ess returned $54.4, $25.5, $12.2. As of this writing the $54 horse is a single in the next pick three.
My wagering is over for the day.
Imagine what I'll do when I completely master the system.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Odds solve pleasant dilemma
One of the nicer wagering dilemmas a move player can have is when two horses qualify with the proper running line. In Monday's fourth race at Philly Park, both Stilts and Meadow Blue showed the required move. The drf stats on the success of Cynthia Reese and jock Kyle Carmouche are outstanding and weighed heavily in Stilt's behalf. The horse had four wins at the track a decent best 82 Beyer for the distance and was dropping by two-thirds in claiming price. Odds were 9-2.
Meadow, on the other hand, was 0 for 6 at the track, yet still boasted a 100 best Beyer at the distance. I knew AC Cortez to be a decent rider; Had very little info on trainer Hamer who had recently claimed this horse and was keeping it at the same level. Odds were 25-1
What to do?
The odds did it for me. The move is designed to hide a horse's true form for the barn to cash a large mutuel. An across the board wager on Meadow, and an exacta with my third-rated horse, returned more than $500.
Stilts, who ended up the favorite, is still running. Word to the wise!
Meadow, on the other hand, was 0 for 6 at the track, yet still boasted a 100 best Beyer at the distance. I knew AC Cortez to be a decent rider; Had very little info on trainer Hamer who had recently claimed this horse and was keeping it at the same level. Odds were 25-1
What to do?
The odds did it for me. The move is designed to hide a horse's true form for the barn to cash a large mutuel. An across the board wager on Meadow, and an exacta with my third-rated horse, returned more than $500.
Stilts, who ended up the favorite, is still running. Word to the wise!
Saturday, March 7, 2009
'Sassi' $100 mover at Big A
There's nothing like it in the world: The excitement of watching the wheel horse in your double open up a four length-lead in the stretch assuring it will never be caught. A quick glance at the tote board shows the nag is 49-1. You're even more gratified that you made an additional across the board wager on the horse. The one thing that could make it better is if your second rated horse beats the favorite for place. That doesn't happen.
Who cares? Sassification in the fourth race at the Big A paid, a whopping, $100.50, $28.4, $14.8. The double, with the odds on favorite in the third, paid $183. Of course it was a monster move horse.
Additional movers, today: At Aqueduct, Ah Day, $16.8, $7.8, $5.3; At Fairgrounds, Alligator Bayou $12, $7.2, $4.6 and Gold Wonder $46. $16.8, $9.
Who cares? Sassification in the fourth race at the Big A paid, a whopping, $100.50, $28.4, $14.8. The double, with the odds on favorite in the third, paid $183. Of course it was a monster move horse.
Additional movers, today: At Aqueduct, Ah Day, $16.8, $7.8, $5.3; At Fairgrounds, Alligator Bayou $12, $7.2, $4.6 and Gold Wonder $46. $16.8, $9.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Back to Back Movers at Big A
Just when you think it's time to give up this folly called handicapping—Boom! Clarity hits you in the face with back to back $200+ daily doubles, linking two logical monster move horses. At Aqueduct, One Luck Date paid the standard 8-1 and took advantage of the overwhelming rail-speed bias to win by four (The all button registered a $225 double). In the fifth, Seventeen Love, left at the gate, came charging down the middle of the track at 17-1 under a brilliant ride by bug-boy Erick Lopez. Watch this kid. Moreover, watch this horse. He looks like a repeater .
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