Horseplayer U

System success! Blog closing??

2011-07-10T02:05:00.000-07:00

This is the first post of 2011 to this blog...And, it may very well be the last. As previously mentioned, family demands do not permit me to do proper service to this blog and the move site itself. Then there is the considerable amount of time I must spend handicapping and recording 'move' data.

For those interested, here are a few of the Monster Move winners in recent weeks.

Queen of Chic $94, Blackhawk Springs $70, Engine Room dq 26-1

Christmas Cove $40, Falcon's Flight $52, Quiet Power $65

Thanks to the few of you who actually purchased the system. I find it so interesting that my efforts to bring it to the attention of the 'experts' go unrewarded. OK by me. I will continue to profit--alone. Goodbye and good luck, to all

Give thanks for DRF info

2010-11-24T10:57:00.000-08:00

Hats off to the Daily Racing Form for providing more statistics than any handicapper can possibly use effectively. There is such an overload of information that one rarely knows what to look at and what to dismiss.

Luckily for me, I pay particular attention to the trainer/jock stats: Who rides for who when it's go time for a win. Today's second race at Aqueduct paid me handsomely for my devotion to this tidbit.

Lady's Lunar Luck paid $78. $25.8, $14.2 across the board, beat the odds-on betting favorite for a $380 exacta and was an easy $2 daily-double wheel that returned $437.

Key to my selection was the 50% win record of white-hot trainer Dan Conway (19% in 2009); 67% when using jock Eddie Castro; solid numbers from sprint to route (24%). Although there was no stat for first-time turf wins, that changes today. Bottom line, this was also a two-year-old race--by definition an open contest. Read your form!

I'm King (Congie) of the world, $88

2010-11-14T01:58:00.001-08:00

Family demands have left little time to post to this blog. But had to publicly pat myself on the back for collecting nearly $4,000, today because of Monster-Mover King Congie in Aqueduct's fourth race.

Despite enormous 43-1 odds, I was so confident in this two-year-old colt that I made Congie the nucleus of my bets from races two through five. That means, the horse completed my second race pick-three, was wheeled with all in the fourth double and was keyed with logical contenders in the exacta and third-race pick-three.

Bunches all around. Collected on everything. Truthfully, there was a second mover in the fourth race that required a small saver wager. I was convinced, however, that expert conditioner Albertrani and pilot David Cohen were due to pay their up-to-no-good taxes. Happy to go along for the ride.

The move is a monster when it hits!

Know what you know. I like Mike!

2010-09-25T12:30:00.000-07:00

There are few reliable factors in thoroughbred handicapping. When a player finds one, it's like the 'all-in' call in hold-em poker. NYRA trainer Mike Hushion has long been one of my reliable favorites. He is also a prolific Monster Move trainer.

Good ol' Mike sent out Quality Council, in the fifth race at Belmont today, off of a qualifying move in it's first race at Monmouth Park. That day the colt had to break from the rail for a considerably higher Maiden Special Weight purse. Today, Council was to be ridden by M. Garcia, a better than average jock from another circuit--but relatively unknown in New York. Need I say more? The colt went off at 12-1 and romped to an easy win to pay $26.2, 11, 6.8.

Council completed a $696 pick-three for me, a $139 daily double and finished ahead of the favorite for a $113 exacta. At this writing the colt is a single on my small pick-six ticket.

Props to Mr. Serling

2010-08-15T11:54:00.000-07:00

Respect to NYRA handicapper Andy Serling for reminding viewers of today's third race at Saratoga that "the way to make money at the track is to search for hidden form." Props, again to Mr. Serling for pointing out the less than obvious value of long-shots Gotta Go Round and Who's Willie Fitz against a 1-5 shot in the race. He made me take a second and third look at both horses. Hope he had the $619 exacta, as I did.

'Soaring' over Rachel's return

2010-07-24T20:44:00.000-07:00

Those of us on the ground, playing the ponies day-to-day, do appreciate greatness. Super-horse Rachel Alexander returned to the races at Monmouth Park, today, winning as easily as expected. Hoorah!
The more difficult challenge is how to make money off of the promised victory. I can't say a monster move prompted the $20 double connecting Rachel to 30-1 Black Hawk Soaring in the following race. But, two of my favorite move performers--trainer Patricia Farro, and underrated jock Angel Serpa--gave me enough confidence to take the shot. It was worth a $42 double. A significant earlier win including a $160 daily double (see earlier post) was the other major ingredient.

Really good day.

Earning while learning

2010-07-24T10:50:00.000-07:00

Yes. I'm still struggling with the finer points of the Monster Move system. But, once in a while a I get a chance to earn while I learn. Such was the case today in the Desert Vixen Stakes second race at Monmouth Park. Island Time lead every step of the way to pay a generous $33.20.

My interest in the filly, naturally began with the prescription last running line. Closer examination showed she was near the lead on turf at six furlongs in 1:11.3. Monster trainer Jason Servis found out what he needed to know. The rest was up to jockey Carlos Marquez. He slowed the pace sufficiently so that Island had plenty left to outrun the odds-on favorite. Brilliant ride.

Island Time completed a juicy $64 double with odds-on in race one. I am alive in the next wide-open dd with four contenders.

Bogey not bogus. Yields S39

2010-06-25T14:47:00.000-07:00

Follow your instincts. The major move I spied on Belmont's Friday card was Pat Kelly's Yield Bogey in the eighth race. Knowing Kelly as a move trainer and the supporting evidence in the pp's made Bogey an all-go for me. I mixed him in doubles, pick threes, and placed a hefty across the board wager on the monster mover. The horse won in a romp at $38.4. I love this system.

Being greedy, I am now searching for one more monster on the Churchill Downs twilight card. Think I've got a few.

Lifesaver jock method, long-shot jock Santiago

2010-06-12T13:59:00.000-07:00

Like all horseplayers I have my share of bad days. Either my decision making is off, distorted figures, or lots of seconds and thirds when I need wins. Or I merely can't figure what the hell is going wrong.

My natural tendency is to limit wagering, tighten my requirements, etc. Best success comes from refusing to bet any selection not ridden by the few I consider superior jocks. No matter what my other handicapping indicates. If the horse is not ridden by a 'super-jock' no bet.

These riders don't necessarily lead the standings, although most have done so at some time in their careers. But. they rarely ride unless a horse is a "go."

In New York, John Velasquez is one of my favorites. As are Kent Desormeaux and Alan Garcia. Out-of-town: Anthony Black, Corey Lanerie and John Graham have saved my day numerous times. Apologies to the others I don't recall at this writing. But I know them when I see their names in past performances. For me, they are as close as it gets to 'automatic bet.' Gracias!

Speaking of jocks, Victor Santiago has become my leading long-shot rider in New York. He rides as well as anyone. See his work in Belmont's eighth today on mover Raffie's Rose, $28. The horse had every reason to quit. Santiago kept her going. Trainer James Ryerson has found his rider.

Eldaafer $13.8 win is no 'stab'

2010-05-20T12:52:00.000-07:00

Apparently I missed the memo that turned the art of thoroughbred handicapping into a lottery game of spread your dollars and hope. I am still laboring under the misguided notion that you can select and wager on a logical horse that is often overlooked by the public and it's handicapping mavens.

The more I listen to the so-called experts, I realize that most merely have enough cash to survive a bad streak of odds-on and morning line contenders finishing out of the money in consecutive races. How sad.

To be fair, I am not sure how well I would do offering opinions on nine races a day. But, this is my point. I can be selective; wait for the races with a monster mover, or lone speed, at a distance or on a surface where I have some insight.

That being said, you can imagine my amusement at NYRA's TV cappers dismissing the chances of Eldaafer in the 5th race at Belmont, today. El was the only horse I liked today on the card. He won by open lengths at a generous $13.8.

Not that I am so smart. But these guys overlooked the following information shouting at them in the form:

• Horse was coming off a move race in grade three company (I forgive them for this)
• El had won three of of four starts at the distance; winning two of four starts at Belmont; finishing third in the other two
• Well-regarded west coast trainer Diane Alvarado wins one-third of the time adding blinkers. The rest of her percentage line at routes, days off, etc. sported boxcar numbers
• She brought leading California jock Valdivia with her for this ride.

Exactly what is it that you need? With the proceeds of this win, I think I'll go play lotto.

Movers Day at Belmont

2010-05-19T14:42:00.000-07:00

Monster movers Crepe Sucre, $59.5; Ashley's Mission, $22.4; and Spiritual Tune, $16.8 were winners at Belmont, today. A profitable trip for the system.

Derby? What derby?

2010-04-30T14:22:00.000-07:00

It's awfully difficult to get excited about this year's version of the Kentucky Derby after scoring a huge $56.50 hit with monster mover Le Grand Cru in Belmont Park's opening day feature race: The Westchester

Trained by hall-of-famer Allen Jerkens and ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, Cru boasted impeccable credentials at Belmont Park including two wins in three starts at the one mile distance--in graded stakes company.

Even though the horse hadn't run in a month, the all-important monster move running line pointed Cru out as a possible selection. Pass the Point also showed the required line, but had no other credentials to compare with the eventual winner.

At this writing, I am also alive in four daily doubles.

Sweet dreams are made of this.

Oh, the Kentucky Derby? Bob Baffert's Lookin at Lucky, Gomez up, is the only horse to show a last race monster move line. Morning line odds of 3-1 are much too low for a wager. We'll see at post time, tomorrow.

Afleet scores at 24-1

2010-04-24T16:41:00.000-07:00

Only the most astute student of the Monster Move would have even dared to make even the smallest wager on Afleet Again in Aqueduct's featured Grade III Withers. Guilty as charged.

The most difficult part was to identify the last running line as a qualifier. Experience has taught me that if it looks like and quacks like a duck, then.... It didn't hurt that I was familiar with the training methods of Robert Reid (30% winners) and the able riding of jock Mariano.

Afleet was making its first start since the Grade 2 Gotham, where the colt chased of a 1:11.4 six furlong pace before stopping to a gallop. At leg three of the all important running line, the colt was 20 lengths behind the leader. Remarkably, he only lost four more lengths.

Today seemed like a go! Afleet romped by three at 24-1. With the odds-on off the board, show paid almost as much as the win price. Additionally, my selection won the last race for a huge $456 double price.

A duck is a duck.

'Beach' day at Keeneland

2010-04-17T08:32:00.000-07:00

A real satisfying win in yesterday's finale at Keeneland. It took a little more work than usual to come up with Beach Commander but it was worth it. Horse paid $29 to win, and coupled with logical second finisher, a $209 exacta. A value win on a day when everything in New York was chalk.

Although 'Beach' was not a picture perfect monster mover, the last race running line was sufficiently close to warrant deeper investigation. A qualifying back race and leading jock Mena up, were the clinchers. Ultimately, a solid bet.

Time permitting, I'm back

2010-04-16T07:50:00.000-07:00

No matter how hard I try, I can't seem to get more than 24 hours out of any single day. Since my South American trip, I've picked up more required responsibilities. I am already in charge of the day-to-day living of three octogenarian relatives who haven't a care in the world. Monster research continues. Something had to give. And, it's been this blog.

My apologies to the few who regularly look for information about the Monster Move system. I haven't posted in more than a month. I will attempt to do better.

The best thing is that nothing has changed with the system. It continues to score larger than expected mutuels on predictable horses. Joining the list of trainers who have used this method with aplomb is former New York rider Rudy Rodriguez. He has already sent out more winners than he rode all of last year. Temecula Creek, paid $25 on the same day notable Steve Asmussen sent out cinch Natural Speed to score by daylight at $14.40.

I have been busy investigating the pick-three and pick-four potential of these movers. Early results are encouraging. Imagine using a 15-1 shot as the key single in the middle of an inexpensive pick-three wager. I have taken down $1400, $870 and $581, for starters. Stay tuned.

Big A cancels; It's Not for Love pays 11-1

2010-01-30T13:50:00.001-08:00

Cancellation of the Big A card because of frozen temperatures warmed my heart with an opportunity to score on an historic monster mover at Gulfstream Park. I have caught It's Not for Love both times that she was a go. This was no different. The mare was coming off two moves and returning to her favorite 1 1/16 distance on the turf. She paid $23.6, 10, 5.8. A textbook mover.

Mover Living a Dream, $48, thanks to Luzzi

2010-01-22T11:38:00.000-08:00

Don't know how solid jock Mike Luzzi fell out of favor with this punter. But, after his ride on 23-1 Living Out a Dream for Jennifer Pedersen in today's fifth race at Aqueduct, Luzzi is now on my favored list. It was undoubtedly his perseverance against three other contenders through the stretch that made 'Dream' a winner. A small across-the-board wager returned balloons, including exacta, and a daily double wheel into the sixth. Hindsight is 20/20 vision. Next time Luzzi rides a mover, I'll load up on the wager..

$erpa no Surprise

2010-01-16T20:11:00.001-08:00

Don't say we didn't tell you. Angel Serpa is the real deal. In a previous post at the beginning of the Big A meet (December 10), I recommended that players pay particular attention to any horse ridden by the phenom . There are few decent tips in this game. But I gave you one of them.

Serpa has been the source of several huge hits for me this meet, including two pick-three singles: Strummer ($!6.6) yesterday and mover Star Over Malibu ($20.20) --one of three winners--today. The apprentice rides like a journeyman. Nuff said!

Knowledge Power ditto

2010-01-09T09:42:00.000-08:00

The few players who regularly read this blog need only look to my previous post to understand how I 'confidently' picked the 9-1 winner in today's first "dog" race at Aqueduct. Monster Boots won by open lengths, was a wheel in the upcoming daily double and a single in the first pick three. Why? Trainer Benjamin Perkins…an under rated master conditioner. The horse did not qualify with a monster move. But in a field as bad as this one, it was worth a decent wager.

Unicorn Girl continues move streak at Big A

2010-01-08T08:13:00.000-08:00

Unicorn Girl, $27.4, 8.8, 6.2 in Aqueduct's fourth race, made three days in a row that a NY monster mover won at gratifying double digits. The mare, sent off at 12-1, benefited from a heady ride by CC Lopez who drove her to the fast- rail to just nip odds-on Positive Prospect, Trainer Ben Perkins is a master of the tactic so I loaded up on this wager: surrounding doubles, across the board mutuels, double exacta. Knowledge is power.

One Brave Cat fills me up in Big A second

2010-01-06T10:12:00.000-08:00

Two monster moves in the second at the Big A. Shamroge opened at 6-5. Ed Lotruglio's One Brave Cat, Bocachica up, went postward at 17-1. Easy decision. Cat was never threatened in completing a $71 double with first race odds-on horse. Main meal mutuels of $35.2, 9.8, with a $196 exacta as gravy. Dessert will be served next as the smallest double in my wheel is $168. I'm full!

3rd race observation: Broadway Producer and More than a Reason, don't like to win. We'll see!

Wadi Suki, Ezzy get 2010 off to a bang!

2010-01-03T06:42:00.000-08:00

Two monster movers, at the big A, got the new year off to a profitable start. In the last race on January 1, Wadi Suki lead wire-to-wire for a return of $34 , 12.8 and 6.9. Jockey Souza's first win of the meet. Time to watch trainer Gary Contessa.

Ezzy, trained by Bernardo Callejas and ridden by jockey Hill, wired the field to complete a $401 first double, yesterday and paid mutuels of $47.8, 13.4 and 8.20.

Hello 2010. I'm ahead for the whole year (sic).

Riding the jocks to success

2009-12-10T11:34:00.001-08:00

For the first two weeks of a meet, I spend more time watching than wagering. My goal is to identify who among the new jocks have more riding skill than the public immediately recognizes. There is always at least one. And, he or she is often the key to excellent profits.

The most celebrated of this season's new crop at NYRA, is David Cohen. He has been immediately embraced by the more prolific training operations and is listed near the top of leading riders..

But don't sleep Angel Serpa and Anna Naprovnik. I give a second look to any horse they ride. It has already been key to major winning wagers. Simply the fact, that either of this talented duo is aboard, is enough.

Conversely, no matter how hot Tony Dutrow is out of town, when he legs up NYRA's worst rider on a horse (you know who you are), I immediately throw the nag out. And, rightly so.

$500 'monster' exacta on Big A IDT

2009-12-02T15:00:00.000-08:00

Two Monster-movers in the second race on Aqueduct's inner-dirt-track finished first and second to return a humongous $514 in the exacta. Move trainer Ubilo Rodrigo hoisted apprentice Jackie Davis aboard winner Northern Warrior to pay $71.5. $19. $8.6. An unusually inept Eddie Castro, aboard 11-1 Landlash, could have won but finished second. Borderline mover My Lucky Way finished third to complete a $6,458 trifecta. What's up, Eddie?

Paying the price for success

2009-11-19T13:50:00.000-08:00

Handicapping horses is a tough task. There's always a trade-off for success. I am now paying the price for my in-depth study of the monster move. I spent so much time proving that the system works (it still does) that I have lost my successful approaches to other potential winners. Back to square one on them. You can't begin to imagine my frustration.

The only benefit is that I dislike Big A racing in the fall. So, its been relatively easy to suspend betting activities there. But my success at Churchill has also suffered. I have slowed all wagering to a crawl.

I am, however, continuing to refine the move strategy. Recent winners include Pollard Babe $62 and On the Beat., $35.2.

Never fear. As is typical with this 'game' I'll be back. No doubt.!

Breaking the silence, finally

2009-10-29T17:13:00.000-07:00

If silence is golden then this site has been a veritable Fort Knox of blogs. As is typical for this Belmont-Aqueduct transition time of year, I am doing a lot of thinking and re-thinking about the handicapping game.

My objective is to develop one standard approach to the game, that serves me well during highs and lows. A fantasy? Perhaps. But I am armed with a few proven strategies that have documented success (including the monster move). Stay tuned, I'll be back soon.

Move lives East and West

2009-10-01T16:17:00.000-07:00

Well no doubt I am back at the track. Capped off the day hitting the final pick three at Belmont Park (for a buck). Then tested the move waters at Santa Anita where 85-1 Sombre gave 3-5 shot all she could handle before yielding in the final yards. Surprisingly, Sombre paid $41 to place. Naturally had the $55 exacta.

The move, apparently, works West coast, too!.

Back to work; Serling joke, move winner

2009-09-30T14:36:00.000-07:00

After a much-needed and relaxing two week vacation in Columbia and Aruba (where I only wager at the Aruba Holiday Inn Race Book), I return to New York to find Andy Serling has become a comedian.

Granted he was extolling the few virtues of long-shot Judge's Pride in Belmont's 9th race when he said there was a positive jockey switch to Rudy Rodriguez. "A positive switch to Rodriguez?" Am I being punked? The jock's 2009 record of 19-for-330-is an improvement. But have you ever seen this guy ride?

That I immediately dismiss the chances of any horse this jock is on hasn't cost me one red-cent. And, never will.

Superb jockey John Velasquez on He Ain't Easy ($33), patiently sat behind two other battling movers to score the first successful system winner since my return. He capped a nice $117, pick-three.

Move ins and wins at Belmont

2009-09-12T11:07:00.000-07:00

Movers won both ends of the first double on the second day of the Belmont Park fall meet. Laysh Laysh Laysh ($10) connected with Lion's Lair ($17.4) for a double pay out of $75. Automatic win and place bets on both.

In an effort to tighten my wagering, it is the only double I played. Welcome back to Belmont.
I will be on sabbatical for the next two weeks. Nice way to come in--go out.

Not smug; Convinced!

2009-08-31T17:26:00.000-07:00

As the Saratoga meet comes to an end, it's difficult not to be smug about the success of the Monster Move system. Day in and out , I watch the experts (Much respect for them.) analyze each race at whatever track--giving detailed reasons for this or that selection. Inevitably, they overlook horses like Moontune Missy ($36), Inca King ($14.80), Belle of Camden ($39.60) and today's Dean Henry ($19), as even contenders. And, every day, I profit from their misunderstanding of a simple running line.
During August, the longest drought between such winners has been two days.

I am, by no means, a pro. I still haven't mastered the finite points of the system. Yet, I wouldn't trade it for the world. If there is one secret to long-shots winners at the track, I've got to believe this is it. I am, truly, blessed!

20/20 Hindsight

2009-08-28T00:49:00.000-07:00

Ah, what could have been. Two of the early pick-four winners at Saratoga (Mel's Gold, $21.4; and Straight Romance, $32.4) were Monster Movers. Congrats to Andy Serling for picking the latter ("Welcome to the party, pal!"). Third race winner was one of only two previous starters and trained by Steve Asmussen--Shaun up! The 'all' button would have sufficed for the long shot winner in the six-horse steeplechase race. Pick-four payout: $$78, 316, roughly half of the pool.

This is not an exotic that I, typically, bet. And, I never play steeples. Might have to reconsider. Whew!

Stewards' blind eyes, surprising

2009-08-22T22:29:00.000-07:00

I know it's a thankless job. But, much of this country is out of work and would gladly accept. Why is it, then, that NYRA stewards had to wait for an objection, by jock Sebastian Morales, to review such an obvious foul in the last race at Saratoga? Pink Tights was making, what might have been, a winning move. Not one of them saw her get slammed? Can't imagine who or what were they watching.

Couldn' t be that they were in a hurry to finish the day. Let's hope not!

Option, Brother Nick ($19) Keep it 'Moving"

2009-08-22T11:56:00.001-07:00

The streak continues, thanks to the two movers mentioned above. Compensated for low odds on Option via multiple exotics. Additional across bets on Nick, make it a winning day. Scary! No try from mover 'Book' in race 4.

Taking stock of success

2009-08-19T16:03:00.000-07:00

Nothing lasts forever. Thanks to the system, I am currently enjoying my most profitable period, ever. My overall handicapping has improved to the point where I am making ingenious decisions, seeing trainer strategies clear as a bell--and wagering 'brilliantly.' This is Heaven.

Realistically, it can't continue. For my own sanity, I am accepting that, today--in writing! In guarded optimistic terms this simply means slow down. By bridling my nature, I won't take this success for granted.

Three of the last four days I have had to follow my own rule about limiting wagering after a big-score day. My newest rule 'NO' (no opinion) has served well. I will be a winner at Saratoga for the first time in 12 years. Overall, I plan to be more selective. Slow doesn't mean stop.

Never fear. I still have the Monster Move.

Jockey ups and downs

2009-08-17T11:40:00.000-07:00

It's time to adjust my ratings for jockeys riding at Saratoga and Monmouth.
Can't call this an upgrade; merely a welcome back for Norberto Arroyo, who has developed into one of the most successful riders in the country--long-shot or not. (See Prince Dubai $56, in race 7 at Saratoga). Your recognition is coming!

Upgrades; Jose Lezcano has shown he can ride with the best of them. After recent performances, I will now consider Jean Luc Samyn in sprint races. Solid performances by Sebastian Morales. Jose Vega, at Delaware, is sneaky good. Long-shot trainers are using him.

Suspect: Edgar Prado has been slow to score at Saratoga. What's happened to Mike Luzzi? Former fav Jose Espinoza needs to find his timing. He's lost too many close ones. (Of course, after I wrote this he wins with a meaningful ride, aboard 13-1 Sky Fever for trainer Juan Ortiz. I knew you could do it Jose! Congrats)

Auto-Mott-ic Whisked Away pays $22.8

2009-08-16T19:18:00.000-07:00

Ditto! See earlier post dated August 3rd. Nuff said.

Mover, 9th Client, seals $22,000 pick-three

2009-08-15T14:36:00.000-07:00

Wayne Lukas' monster mover, Ninth Client, paid $18.8 in Saratoga's eighth race to complete a $22,000 pick-three for $1. He was a single. Naturally, across the board wagers and key in the following $110 double. Great ride Mr. Maragh. THANKS!
Ha, cha, cha!

Near Bush-whack, then nostril loss at Saratoga

2009-08-08T13:25:00.000-07:00

Trainer Thomas Bush and jock Cornelio Velasquez nearly pulled off the coup of the 2009 Saratoga meet, when monster mover High Cry rallied on the rail (brilliant ride) mid-stretch to miss winning the sixth race at odds of 33-1. Exclusive Scheme ran her down just before the wire.

The all-important 'move' running line lead to further review of High Cry's record which showed that her best turf performances were at Saratoga. The odds were a gift.

Ah, what could have been! No real tears, though. Cry paid $30 to place, $12 to show. We made out just fine. Next time, guys!

Update: Eibar Coa broke my heart, again in the next race with Gold Vendetta's nostril win over mover Bestowed at 7-1. No faults, here. Just two excellent rides. You can''t win them all.

Mott Strikes Again at 6-1

2009-08-03T16:08:00.000-07:00

Few things in this game of horse racing are automatic. Mott on turf, especially off of a move win, comes pretty close. This is particularly true at Saratoga. I am always befuddled--and amused-- by the generous prices his runners pay. Today, it was Strike Again at 6-1. How does a gimmee like Quality Road match up with Strike for a $34 daily double? None of the public or TV handicappers even mentioned the colt. Guess we're not playing the same game.

An 'Affair' to remember

2009-07-31T12:50:00.000-07:00

"…and Our Royal Affair takes the lead from Nikkosi Reign and draws off to win it and at 14-1," with apologies to Larry Collmus, Monmouth Park track announcer. Another satisfying victory for the monster move system. This is getting to be a habit.

Also, NYRA owes me the price of $5 win bet on 10-1 Sugar Trade, as it's machines went down as I was making the bet. Granted, I would have missed the exacta (sic). Mott mover Bird Run qualified completely, save the odds. Won, easily, at 8-5.

$93 'Buck' completes monster payoff dance

2009-07-29T01:06:00.000-07:00

There simply are no words to describe the feeling: the overwhelming exuberance of watching the wire approach as 46-1 Dance for a Buck battles back against 1-9 Nicole's Song after leading the whole 1.70 mile at Delaware. The win is so much more satisfying because it completes a double with monster mover Debbie's A Trip ($16.6) in the first; validates an additional win and place bet on Buck; pays off a $185 exacta with the 1-9 favorite--and guarantees a pick three win with all in the third.

I've said before 'connecting movers race to race are deadly.' Thank you trainer Thom Walsh, jockey J Vega. Apologies to Armando for my excessive celebration.

All of this from recognizing, understanding and respecting a simple running line before the first race was run. This kind of return on a $35 wager. In fact, Buck's running line could have been overlooked by a lesser move zealot. But it had to be respected.

Sometimes I know how Columbus felt living with the flat-worlders,

Monster hits build Saratoga bank

2009-07-26T07:15:00.000-07:00

Since my losing visit to Belmont on Thursday, the race gods have been lining up in my favor. Monster movers, everywhere..

Friday:
• At Monmouth, Dance for Joy by open lengths at paltry 5-1 setting off a $116 early double.
• At Belmont: Benlayla, and Insightful connected for a $77 first double and set up the win for the $701 pick three.

Saturday:
• At Belmont: Beneath the Crown (off a completed move) paid $17.4 with a repeat win, then coupled with mover 9-1 Japengo for a healthy $176 double. Across the boards on both, naturally. (Fregata at 21-1 just missed by a head to complete an enormous monster-move exacta.) Singled Japengo in the following pick three, which came back $284

In the eighth mover Misslinglisalewis ran a good second to odds on at 15-1.

•At Monmouth: Becky's Exchange with strong rally paid $22.4

My Saratoga bankroll is set.

'Contender' that should have been placer at 60-1

2009-07-23T20:43:00.000-07:00

One of my main considerations when it comes to qualifying the validity of a Monster mover is the jockey. Who is going to ride can make all the difference between success and failure.

With that in mind, today, I made a relatively small wager on Dear Contender at 60-1 in the fourth race at Belmont. Despite the long odds, the mare qualified on all the important criteria. The new 7 furlong turf distance figured to fit Dear Contender perfectly--except. My enthusiasm for the nag was tempered by an overall impression about jockey Raymond Fuentes. He hasn't exactly set the world on fire since joining he New York riding colony.

Automatically, I exacta boxed the horse with favored Mne or Who's.

Halfway through the race, I nearly broke my companion's arm once I saw the mare make the necessary move on the stretch turn. The favorite had the race won. I was sure to finish second. Then, there was the slightest hesitation, followed by a final lunge. Contender--and Fuentes--lost the place photo by the smallest lip. A $9 show price was little consolation. Even at small prices NYRA, the exacta would have come back nearly $300 or more. I won't even discuss the potential place price.

Geez. I cudda been a.....

Talk about a stranger in the race?! $97 to win

2009-07-10T17:18:00.000-07:00

At some point I'm going to examine why I do better at the end of a racing day than the beginning. Heeding my own practice of taking it slow the day after a huge score, today, I was getting bored. Every contender I selected at Belmont and Monmouth was a wagering stand-out that won. No movers, no bets.

In desperation, I closely examined the final race at Belmont, looking for some clue to at least give me a jolt of excitement. It was a 7 furlong grass race. Again, the obvious horses, on paper, looked unbeatable. Both were 2-1.

Then, I noticed a stranger. Slick Wheelie showed no starts on turf, with three-rained-out attempts to do so. Importantly, he was being ridden by one of my top favorite jocks: Rajiv Maragh. What was going on?

Closer examination of the jock's success with respectable trainer Bruce Brown, showed the two score at 29% this year and a 19% rate in 2008. Additionally, Brown has a stellar rate with first timers on the turf, and dirt to turf starters. (This info is available in the Daily Racing Form pps). The evidence was mounting.

All in all, Maragh/ Brown deserved a stab. At 14-1, I bet $5 win and place. For good measure, I confidently wagered $10 to show--certain that the team would be trying.

Wheelie won, going away at a 47-1. I guess patience really is a virtue

Fire Marshal ignites 'monster' profits

2009-07-09T18:12:00.000-07:00

My first major score, since adopting the no opinion strategy has paid off in spades. Move horse, Fire Marshal in the 5th at Belmont, today, paid $34.2, 12, 5.2. The horse completed a $1,189 pick three and a $210 double. Ha, cha, cha!

Autobetting strategy: Second favorites

2009-07-09T17:54:00.000-07:00

For me, handicapping is an ever-evolving journey. In an effort to maintain consistency, I am constantly fine-tuning small pieces of the process. It's no secret that my main approach involves mastering the Monster Move. Yet, when those running lines don't show up for days at a time, I've had to develop an automatic strategy. Still testing, but it's simple and reduces wagering exposure when one doesn't have the time, energy or means to do more in-depth research.

Here it is, in a nutshell: Bet the second favorite

1-Bet one unit ($2) to win on the second favorite in the race.
2-Bet a $2 exacta box on the second and third faves in the race. That's it!

The cost per-race is $6. And, the returns are surprisingly satisfying for doing absolutely no handicapping. It's a nice addition to my, previously mentioned, 'no opinion (NO)' approach.

The reasoning is sound. Historically, 50% of the races are won by either the first or second betting favorite. Most favorites are significantly overbet. Second faves are often overlays.

Try it. You'll be pleasantly surprised!

Just say NO!

2009-06-14T10:16:00.000-07:00

One of the benefits of blogging about racing is the fact that I have to write things down. In turn, the notes I make help me analyze my strengths and, importantly, my weaknesses in the game.

Without doubt, wagering is a major weakness. Because of my devotion to the Monster Move, I am wise enough to make straight wagers. Imagine not cashing $22 place, $14 show.

But, in pursuit of the BIG SCORE, I am still making far too many exotic wagers. It's a basic rule of the system to box a mover with the favorite in exactas. Fine! Until, I have more distinct indicators isolating weaker and stronger movers, I am reducing the wheels, boxes and pick-whatevers.

Truth be told, in most of those wilder exotics I really don't have a strong opinion about the horses I am tying to my selections. Unknowingly, I have made wagering itself almost as important as the selection process. Where is it written that a player is supposed to have an opinion about every race on a card? No opinion is not a sin.

NO (no opinion) has just become a significant character to be added to my DRF markup.

Desormeaux wins 4 at Belmont

2009-06-07T07:54:00.000-07:00

I only became a fan of jockey Kent Desormeaux once he hooked up with hall of fame trainer Bill Mott. Not that I had anything against the rider; merely no particular opinion. Overtime, I have learned to appreciate him as one of the best in the business.
He proved it, yesterday, at Belmont Park winning four of the 13-race Belmont Stakes card. Only Convocation in the 3rd was odds on.

Noticeably, Desormeaux displayed his skill against New York's best riders in the fourth on turf at 1 1/16 by lulling them all to sleep aboard Pennington (a move horse) walking through fractions of :26, :51 and 1:15.4 to win at a $23 mutuel.

And, of course, he guided 12-1 Summer Bird to victory in the featured Belmont Stakes. Helluva day, Mr. Desormeaux. Congrats!

Once a mover....

2009-06-07T05:45:00.000-07:00

It's accepted that humans are creatures of habit. Does the same thng translate to the horses they train? Realistically, the move is a human creaion. It is designed to work a horse into shape, assure it is ready for the winner's circle photo–at a price well above it's chances.

Eldaafer is such a horse. I have caught trainer Diane Alvarado's move tactics on this horse at nearly 8-1 in April. She pulled it again at Belmont, yesterday, at a much better price. This time, El paid $36.2, 12.8, 5.4 and capped off a $233 daily double.

Even though I was having a less than spectacular day, to that point, I wheeled Eldaafer to every horse in the previous race. Just so happens that it connected to another mover Despite the Odds, $17.2 . So I had the double twice.

"Pete and Repeat were in a boat. Pete fell out. Who was left?"

If something works, don't fix it!

Working sabbatical

2009-05-21T10:48:00.000-07:00

There seem to be less hours in a day than there used to be. Another pressing family matter has caused me to suspend wagering activities--and therefore, frequent posts to this blog.

At the same time, I am working on a second edition of Monster Movers. This time I no longer feel the need to prove that the system works. i have done so in spades. My major initiative in this version is to explore the individual factors--class, pace, distance, etc.--that separate 'real' monsters from pretenders. What makes a trainer say go with the longshot?

Some trainer intentions have easily become obvious, but there is still work to be done. I can comfortably state that I have about 65% of the system mastered. There are, however, too many misleading indicators that aren't worth one cent of wagering. When I can rid myself of the false leads, I should be able to increase the size of my bets on--a lot--fewer races. Stay tuned

Castro combo conquers again--at 16-1

2009-05-20T12:39:00.000-07:00

Don't say I didn't warn you. Trainer Rodrigo Ubilo and jock Eddie Castro are on a tear on the grass. Today at Belmont it was Kutais striding away in the stretch to easily beat a field of 12, at a more than generous, 16-1. If you read this blog, I recently touted the merits of following this combo. Not even a mention on NYRA's handicapping show. What are you looking at gents? The jock/trainer percentage is merely .38 with a return on investment of $10.05. Read your form.

Paco bats .1000 at Belmont on 5/6

2009-05-09T10:04:00.000-07:00

There's a new sheriff in town. His name is Paco Lopez. After riding his first professional race, less than two years ago, the Eclipse Award-winning apprentice is now a successful journeyman and has moved his tack to New York.

On May 6, at Belmont Park, Lopez went 3-for-3 in the winner's circle.

If the ride he gave Drift King to beat odds on favorite in Belmont's the 3rd is any indication, Lopez is going to make his presence felt for a long time. Don't overlook him. It will cost you money.

Listening to my own advice

2009-04-24T12:20:00.000-07:00

The last post on this space ranted about how--with trainers--jock popularity seemed more important than riding skills. it's unfair to the less favored with ability. My point was proven today, in spades and with dollars, as jockey Orlando Bocachica, overcame a stumbling start on Inside Zone to score at 18-1 over favorite Bulara on the Big A turf. What a ride.

The selection of Inside Zone was bolstered by my affinity for move trainer Patricia Farro, one of the sharpest in the game. Apparently she had no hesitation about jock Orlando. I already had Zone alive in the previous double (also as a pick-six single, by the way) and nearly hesitated to bet it across the board--because Boca is not a preferred jock with a high win percentage.

Then, I remembered my own counsel. I immediately doubled my straight wagers and wheeled the horse in the next double. Boom! Can't lose. My wagering day is done.

Thanks, Orlando!

Ride unpopular jocks to profits

2009-04-18T19:22:00.000-07:00

Ramon Dominguez, top jock of the recent Big A meet is good; Yet no better than a handful of less respected riders on the NYRA circuit. The difference is that when those riders win their mounts pay more than they should. Dominguez is so overbet that it is difficult to make a profit on his winners.

As in most professions, a jockey's ability seems less important for success than his or her connections. The NY training poobahs have finally gotten wise to the extraordinary riding skills of jock Rajiv Maragh--so he's getting more mounts. They continue to ignore capable jocks like Eddie Castro, Victor Santiago, Victor Morales, Pablo Morales, and Anne Naprovinick. They are a longshot player's dream. I elevate the chances of any horse ridden by the previously mentioned riders. Castro, yesterday had two winners paying $51, and $18.

Perhaps the best evidence of a successful connection is the journey of jock Cornelio Velasquez. For months, he was quietly feeding my pocket with excellent rides at enormous prices. Then, trainer Bill Mott made him his go-to guy. The rest is history.

Ask former leading Suffolk jocks Winston Thompson and Orlando Bocachica about becoming small fish in a big pond. Did they really leave their skills in Boston?

Ditto in Big A 9th at 7-1

2009-04-17T14:09:00.000-07:00

(see previous post) Rodrigo Ubilo and Eddie Castro (a monstrous 50% with a $6.50 roi) in the 9th race. This time at 7-1. Nuff, said!

Selective reading costs $

2009-04-17T12:05:00.000-07:00

For obvious reasons, horse race handicappers are likened to weathermen. What other professions are there that can claim expertise at predicting a future that is all too often incorrect.

What puzzles me, is that the television touts, while encouraging followers to look at the new Daily Racing Formulator-stats, concentrate only on areas that appeal to their handicapping methods. Being a long-shot player, I can't afford to make these errors.

Today, for instance, in Aqueduct's 4th race, I made a nice $51 score on Wheels Up, a first time turf-starter (At this writing I have the horse covered with four others in the daily double). The 'experts' admitted that the race was filled with improbable contenders. Yet, none of them looked at the trainer jockey stats of Rodrigo Ubilo and Eddie Castro. (a monstrous 50% with a $6.50 roi). Granted, it was a stab. But it was a stab in a stab race. And, I hated the favorite. That's all I needed to at least make win and place bets (and, of course, the pending doubles).

Immediately after collecting on Wheels, I bet a $1 double wheel (with all, cost $10) on the fourth at Keeneland--another impossible 4 1/2 furlong event. And, although it wasn't easy, Kinsolving won the race at an 8-1 mutuel. Key to my wagering decision? The horse was trained by leading trainer Steve Asmussen, and ridden by his sidekick Shaun Bridgemohan. They are winning at a phenomenal clip. As mentioned here, months ago, Asmussen is killing them wherever he sends his stock. When do you get 8-1 on Asmussen?

Winners guaranteed. Now, all I've got to do is wait.

Read the form, folks!

ps: Second favorite won the next race giving me a $198 double and a $65 consolation for a scratched horse. Keeneland's up next. Can't lose!

Hachacha!

Jock Clocks Off

2009-03-28T09:56:00.000-07:00

It's a popular concept that jocks have a clock in their head. The ability is used to 'guesstimate' the pace times during a race that will leave their nags enough energy for a solid finish.

From time to time, though, nobody turns their clocks on. Such was the case in Friday's sixth race at Aqueduct. It was a non-speedy event run at a mile in 1:42 by My Dinah, a horse who has trouble finding the winner's circle. The pace times tell the true story (25.2, 50.2, 115.1, 1:41.3)

Recognizing that the inner-dirt track has been favoring speed, apprentice Sheldon Russell sent Charming Mandate to the lead. That, in itself, should have been a clue to the other jocks riding in the race. On paper, three of them could have run a second quarter in the 47's. Mandate, at best, does 49. Yet, they waited...and, waited...and waited. Having loafed six furlongs in 1:15, Dinah had more than enough left to hold off Wyatt's Women (my 17-1 mover).

Kudos to jockey Victor Santiago for his belated attempt at the win. My guess is he could have won, easily, with an earlier move. But. we'll never know.

More BOOM for the buck$

2009-03-27T07:08:00.000-07:00

You never get used to it. Although, you find yourself screaming the celebratory "BOOM" several times a week. The feeling is Indescribable; watching your long shot 'monster move' selection pull away in the stretch for a convincing victory at unbelievably generous odds. Especially, at the Big A (home of the 1-5 shot).

This time it was Kat's Mystery at 14-1 completing a $148 double and never really threatened by a the 3-2 favorite that rallied for second-money. Automatically, I bet the mover across the board, as well, for $32.6, 11.6, 6.2. But this was merely an appetizer.

Kat was the second leg of an early pick three ticket with four horses, including Future Prospect, my highest rated horse in race three Prospect wasn't a mover, but he went off at 8-1.

Masterful jockey Rajiv Maragh dragged every inch of heart out of the horse to complete a consecutive daily double at $295--and my $960 pick-three ticket.

ADDENDUM TO MARCH 19. The Es El You singled pick-three, came back $739.80! (mover Witch Doctor X, at 47-1, nearly won the race and would have guaranteed me a larger payoff since I had him connect wheeled. However, he was disaqualified from second-by a nose-and place fourth. Whew!)

Movers make a wheel to remember

2009-03-19T11:51:00.000-07:00

After all the agonizing; when the re-reviews of the past performances is done for the sixth time; a horse player has only completed one-half of the handicapping equation. The second, and often, most important part of finding a decent selection is knowing how and when to bet it for maximum return.

Because move horses typically pay 9-1 and up, I choose to focus on straight betting. However, when the clues seem to indicate my mover is strong, I concentrate my win pool betting with a double-wheel. Move horses in both double races require an extra linking double bet.

Such was the case today in the first at Fairgrounds. Geaux Midey Mike was an instant qualifier. The favorite in the race was going off at 3-5, so no show bet was possible. I bet win and place then wheeled Geaux in the double. The horse paid $15.2, $5.2 and combined wth Ess El You (another stand out move in the second race, who won by 5) to complete a $332 dd payoff ( I had it twice). Ess returned $54.4, $25.5, $12.2. As of this writing the $54 horse is a single in the next pick three.

My wagering is over for the day.

Imagine what I'll do when I completely master the system.

Odds solve pleasant dilemma

2009-03-09T11:53:00.000-07:00

One of the nicer wagering dilemmas a move player can have is when two horses qualify with the proper running line. In Monday's fourth race at Philly Park, both Stilts and Meadow Blue showed the required move. The drf stats on the success of Cynthia Reese and jock Kyle Carmouche are outstanding and weighed heavily in Stilt's behalf. The horse had four wins at the track a decent best 82 Beyer for the distance and was dropping by two-thirds in claiming price. Odds were 9-2.
Meadow, on the other hand, was 0 for 6 at the track, yet still boasted a 100 best Beyer at the distance. I knew AC Cortez to be a decent rider; Had very little info on trainer Hamer who had recently claimed this horse and was keeping it at the same level. Odds were 25-1

What to do?

The odds did it for me. The move is designed to hide a horse's true form for the barn to cash a large mutuel. An across the board wager on Meadow, and an exacta with my third-rated horse, returned more than $500.

Stilts, who ended up the favorite, is still running. Word to the wise!

'Sassi' $100 mover at Big A

2009-03-07T11:59:00.000-08:00

There's nothing like it in the world: The excitement of watching the wheel horse in your double open up a four length-lead in the stretch assuring it will never be caught. A quick glance at the tote board shows the nag is 49-1. You're even more gratified that you made an additional across the board wager on the horse. The one thing that could make it better is if your second rated horse beats the favorite for place. That doesn't happen.

Who cares? Sassification in the fourth race at the Big A paid, a whopping, $100.50, $28.4, $14.8. The double, with the odds on favorite in the third, paid $183. Of course it was a monster move horse.

Additional movers, today: At Aqueduct, Ah Day, $16.8, $7.8, $5.3; At Fairgrounds, Alligator Bayou $12, $7.2, $4.6 and Gold Wonder $46. $16.8, $9.

Back to Back Movers at Big A

2009-03-06T04:17:00.001-08:00

Just when you think it's time to give up this folly called handicapping—Boom! Clarity hits you in the face with back to back $200+ daily doubles, linking two logical monster move horses. At Aqueduct, One Luck Date paid the standard 8-1 and took advantage of the overwhelming rail-speed bias to win by four (The all button registered a $225 double). In the fifth, Seventeen Love, left at the gate, came charging down the middle of the track at 17-1 under a brilliant ride by bug-boy Erick Lopez. Watch this kid. Moreover, watch this horse. He looks like a repeater .

New move starts and stops

2009-02-19T11:39:00.000-08:00

Because of pressing family issues I have been forced to discontinue my horse racing activities for some time. Hence, the few posts to this blog.

Realizing the impact a break can have on one's skills, I cautiously returned to the game, today--holding the same convictions about the value of the 'monster move.' I was rewarded in the first at the big A with a gutsy second place finish by 18-1 Masala T (a double wheel). Only to be followed by a similar performance in race two by 33-1 Country Trick, who pushed the odds-on favorite to the limit but wound up a 'magnificent' second. Welcome back, to me!

At the same time, I have decided to withdraw sales of the "Monster Move" system until I can refine it further. It continues to score miraculous results. I already have another eighty examples. Stay tuned.

Follow that move!

2009-01-22T12:29:00.000-08:00

I've learned from experience to follow the fortunes of a move winner after the win.That practice paid off today with winner A Flying Jet, $52 in Aqueduct's third race.

Two other factors gave me enough encouragement to bet the horse in today's win pool and daily doubles. Despite what NYRA's official handicappers believe, the inner-dirt track is playing to inside speed. The leader at the top of the stretch usually opens up major lengths on the turn for home.

Additionally, the comment line of Jet's move win said he was rated until asked. Maybe there was something in reserve and the Beyer number was cloudy. Also, the second place finisher in that race came back to win. And, the coup de grace--CC Lopez to ride--noted for his front running exploits. Jet lead wire-to-wire.

Enough evidence for me. The double returned $324.50 with the second favorite

A NYRA Bone to pick

2009-01-22T12:26:00.000-08:00

Happened across Andy Serling at Aqueduct, Sunday, who was befuddled at the idea of receiving a copy of the Monster Move Method that I left for him or Donovan at customer service. Naturally, no one in customer service knows anything.
I'm sure Andy would have been interested in my selected 55-1 second place finisher in the 9th that day. Where is my book?

Movers connect for pick-three bomb at Big A

2009-01-18T01:25:00.000-08:00

I''ve been saying it since the beginning:' It's bound to happen.' Sooner or later two monster moves would connect to provide me with a certified large pick-3 payoff. Well, folks, today was the day at the Big A. Thank you messrs. Parker and Thompson, Jerkens and Samyn.

They are the trainers and jockeys responsible for my windfall. A brilliant ride by WA Thompson in the sixth race on Edashor at 16-1 started the feast. Naturally, I had him across the board and hooked up in the double with the 9-1 Saint Daimon in the seventh for $277. But the main course was yet to come. A $1 pick three wheel--with all--yielded a $1 version of the $829 payout.–with the odds-on favorite winning by a nose. Had the place horse won, payoff was more than $2,000.

Hopefully, this is the first of money, uh, many.

Don't say I didn't tell you: Steve Asmussen continues to make mincemeat of the Fairground training colony, sending out 6 of the 9 winners on today's card. Talk about hot! Partner jock Shaun Bridgemohan is stuffing his pockets as a result.

Big Bang ending to a good year

2008-12-31T15:15:00.000-08:00

Thanks to the monster move I am finishing the year with a much-needed bang. Hesitant as I am to wager on Aqueduct's quirky inner-dirt-track, I could not ignore 'move' opportunities on today's card: Coach Butts in the sixth, rallied for second at 9-1 and Personal Good (brilliant ride Mr. Morales!), sixth race, rewarded me with $71, $24, $12 and a $169 daily double.

Interestingly, the eighth race odds-on favorite showed a move and won for fun.

I'm glad I ended my holiday sabbatical.

An unrelated aside: The closest thing to an automatic bet at Fairgrounds has been trainer Steven Asmussen. At some point he boasted a 54% winning percentage. Apparently he's moved several horses to the Big A. He's already two for three at decent prices. A word to the wise…

Happy New Year. Clarity, wisdom, restraint and good handicapping in 2009!

Look to the charts, for longshots

2008-12-22T14:24:00.000-08:00

How do you pick a $50 winner without the move? Look to the charts. Having been at a loss to find a good 'mover' at Fairgrounds in the past few days, I was getting restless. While investigating the 12/20 card I noticed Geniver in the first race. She had been disqualified at Churchill on November 26, elevating my 'move' choice Griding Miss to first at $43.60 and a healthy exacta.
A review of the result chart showed that Nadisheko, entered from the same race, had suffered significantly from Geniver's antics--enough so, that I wheeled Navi in the daily double. She romped, paying $50.60.

Happy Holidays to all, and better handicapping in 2009.

Oh! What could have been

2008-12-13T13:18:00.000-08:00

I can't be angry at her. She's only an apprentice. But I have, indeed, opened a payment due bill for Jaqueline Davis in the amount the gazillion dollars she cost me on Joe Corrigan in the seventh, today, at Aqueduct. He probably wins. No doubt, the horse finishes at least second at
22-1–if she finds a way through the hole on the rail. (Truthfully, Morales on Phobia, tightened it up on her.) Across the board wagers, a part-wheel pick-three and a wheeled daily double went down the drain, as a result. It's alright, Jackie. I'll hold it on file, just in case. After all, I caught your first winner in NY. Did I mention Corrigan was a monster move?

Same Selection, Different Reasons

2008-12-12T09:49:00.000-08:00

At 11:50 a.m., well before the NYRA 'Talking Horses' broadcast, I singled Por Favor in the first race at Aqueduct in doubles and several pick-3s. The reason? He was a solid move horse from move trainer Contessa, riding his new favorite (44% in the money) jock Pablo Morales. At the same time, I back-wheeled Higher Place the move horse in the second-part of the daily double.

Imagine my surprise that the prestigious Andy Serling on the NYRA show also picked Por, but for different reasons. He expected the horse to speed-pop the field. Which he did. $18.40 to win and a guaranteed double--at least. Congrats, Andy!

Great minds think alike--for different reasons.

By the way, Higher Place completed the $140 double, setting me up for a rare pick-three win with the favorite and two other horses. I don't typically pick three. But with back-to-back 'move' horses it was a given. Missunitednations completed that bet, for $670. Love this game

PS–Jockey Garcia ought to be ashamed of himself for the phantom 'foul claim.'

Lifesaver, 'Yet Again.' $79

2008-12-10T18:09:00.000-08:00

I will state, flatly, that no other handicapping method has proven as reliable for me as the monster move method. Not even the Beyer numbers. Understand, I did not create it. While I accept the logic and premise, I am still learning the fine points of the system. But, the results are remarkable.

I spend infinite hours re-reading the source material in the hope that someday I might be able to confidently bet more than $10 on it's typical $30+ winner. Ultimately, I may have to settle for $2 and $5 wagers on these nags.

It happens, but I rarely completely overlook a 'move horse.'

So, you can understand why I was looking for a bridge to jump off after the open length win of 20-1 shot Tainted Love in the fifth at Aqueduct. It was right there on the DRF page; clear as day. I was livid. But, somehow, soothed my pain with the knowledge that trainer Gullo has had a rough time winning. Nevertheless, I had the car warmed up.

NYRA tracks tend to be difficult for move horses. The racing gods smiled on me; delivering two moves in the featured eighth race at the Big A. Still smarting from my wounds, I played Sentimental Union in doubles. Then I bet impossible long shot Yet Again (38-1)across the board and boxed the exacta with the two.

Payoffs of $79 to win and a $443 exacta, go a long way to making me feel better. No jumping today. Add Karl Grusmark to my move trainers list. Well ridden, Bocachica! You are lifesavers.

All a 'Tizzy' all over again

2008-12-06T17:28:00.000-08:00

One of the most memorable examples in my book is Slew's Tizzy. He was responsible for my biggest score in 2007 in the Coolmore Lexington Grade 2 at Keeneland. This 'monster mover' paid $83 to win, finishing ahead of another move horse to return a $1,000 exacta.

Well, guess who showed up , today, with another move at Hollywood Park in the Grade 3 Native Diver Handicap? Yep, I didn't get too excited; being hesitant to bet West Coast tracks where the emphasis is always on speed. But, I couldn't ignore the colt, either. This time he was only going off at 7-1. So, I semi-loaded up.

Results? It was deja-vu, all over, again. He won like the only horse in the race for trainer Doug O'Neill and jockey Rosario, The payoffs weren't as large, but I bunched win, place, show, exacta and a $102 daily double.

Maybe, it's time to take the system West. It works everywhere else.

Worthwhile horseracing blog: Green but Game

2008-12-01T15:42:00.000-08:00

While I don't have room in my layout for a link list, one of the most impressive sites out there is Green but Game, written by fellow NYRA fan Dana Byerly. Check it out for oodles of info and enjoyable reading. Way to go Dana.

Formulator, a superb product…but

2008-12-01T13:13:00.000-08:00

Until now, I haven't mentioned a thing about the relatively new Daily Racing Form product Formulator Web. Let me say up front that as a major fan of 'the form' my reaction is merely: Bravo! Superb! Hoo-Hah! Way to go!

My enthusiasm is particularly profound, because I am a die-hard Macintosh user. Until this version there was no Formulator for my population. So, for years I have been downloading a pdf version of the past performances. Unless, I am going to the track, I do my handicapping right on the computer screen. No printout, necessary.

Therein lies my one, small complaint. With Adobe Acrobat, I can mark-up my computerized version of the pdf–a valuable tool when you handicap two tracks and, at least 18 races a day. No such luck with Formulator.

Hopefully, the powers that be will consider including a similar tool with the next update. It doesn't even have to save the marks.

Other than that, I give Formulator four stars out of five.

Beyond the last running line

2008-11-29T02:44:00.000-08:00

My pursuit of 'monster move' mastery has caused me to read DRF past performances more completely. Like most systems, it begins with evaluation of the last race a horse has run. By definition this race is always less than stellar. So, I have to dig deeper to justify a wager.

For instance, the last race line for Dirty Water Dog in Aqueduct's ninth race, yesterday shows he finished 10th, nearly 20 lengths behind, as an odds-on favorite. He was claimed by trainer Chad Brown off of a win, in the race before. Closer pp investigation shows these virtues:

• 'Dirty' won 3 out of seven starts, with 1 third
• He had the second best Beyer at the distance and the surface
• His odds, before yesterday, were never longer than 5-1
• Importantly, trainer Brown won 42% when he legged up jockey Lezcano

The results? Dirty paid $14, $8.7, $6 completing a $95 daily double, catching the other move horse in the race who went off at nearly 40-1, for a $388 exacta.

The move is a monster--with benefits.

60-1 wheel at Big A; 22-1 win at Church

2008-11-26T17:54:00.000-08:00

So, what's to say? I've been telling anyone who will listen. Matter of fact, I'm going to stop talking. As soon as I let you know that in the eighth double at Aqueduct, today, I back-wheeled Good and Loud. Yup. It cost me $6. Horse was 60-1
I had no opinion in the eighth. That's right. Back-wheeled. Despite his obvious shortcomings, Good and Loud,was also a classic 'monster move.' As the major promoter of the system, I had no choice. Since I already was going to make a mint if he won, I bet this long-shot to place and show. (Knowing Mike Sedlacek is a move trainer and that Erick Lopez can ride, sealed the deal). He won by open lengths. Look at the chart. Double paid $417 for $2.

At about the same time, at Churchill Downs, move horse Grinding Miss was paying off on my across the board bet in the seventh at Churchill Downs. Not being a fan of jock Orlando Mojica, I originally had crossed this horse off my plays list until I saw trainer Montgomery's outstanding 40% record when he uses him. Thanks DRF.

The move is a monster when it hits!

Reading is FUNdamental at $53

2008-11-21T03:54:00.000-08:00

Anyone reading this blog knows that I am a fan of 'the Form.' One of it's best features is the trainer/jockey stat line, for every horse entered in a race. This info has been key to innumerable winners––Monster Move, et al.

In Aqueduct's second race, yesterday, Barefoot Babe, trained by Edward Allard was coming from Philadelphia sprints to run on the Big A turf for the first time. Jockey Rajiv Maragh (one of my favorites) was named to replace scheduled speed rider CC Lopez.

Allard is notorious for ' putting one over' when he comes to NYRA tracks.
Importantly, the j/t line showed he scores with 23% first time-turfers, and 24% dirt to turf starters--both at generous returns Additionally, in two starts the horse went off at around 4-1.

The evidence required significant wagering action. I complied.

Result: Barefoot paid $52.50 to win. A $2 daily double back-wheel returned $144 the exacta with the favorite paid $238. Across the board wagers were gravy. And, I was insured of a winning day.

All you gotta do is read.

According to the NYRA replay show, Andy Sperling gave this one out. Way to go!

Don't listen to me..

2008-11-05T11:45:00.000-08:00

Boom! Little things mean a lot. Like knowing what to look for in the Daily Racing Form. Congratulations to Jacqueline Davis, daughter of famed New York rider Robbie Davis for her first career win on Blue Hill Bay at 64-1, trained by move trainer Scott Everett.

And, congratulations to me, too, for noticing that the horse showed--not one-but several monster moves in her past performances. That lead me to a race in July when she won at 11-1 (off of another move). Yep, I had her--to win and in the exacta. Had she been a more noted rider, I would have had her across the board several times. (Note to self: My four contenders in the race generated a $14,000 superfecta. Make sure to take a look). But, I ain't crying.

I keep telling folks about this move being a long-shot player's dream. It's OK with me if they don't listen.

Monster System, working wonders

2008-11-01T18:32:00.000-07:00

Only two things surpass the excitement of your selected 93-1 shot opening up on the field in the stretch by two lengths : If the horse wins or runs second. As it is Dutch Striker held on for third, in the last race at Churchill downs, today. I was alive in the double, but happily collected multiple tickets on the $24.80 he paid to show. It was easy to do. In fact, I wrote a book about it.

In the last few weeks, several of these selections won–at monstrous odds, including Buonissimo, $69.80; Unbridled Danger. $38; Stayawaystella, $30;Executive Chief, $28.80; The Mizzus, $47; and even Fleet Valid, at a paltry $12.40. The Monster Move System is working like the 'golden goose' it is.

While, I haven't solved all of it's wonders, I have gained enough knowledge of the system to have these horses, at least, across the board. I am also developing a great deal of that elusive patience; preferring to save wagering for 'move' races.

Daily doubles, are a regular hit. It is only a matter of time before I string together pick threes using these horses as the key. No rush, though.

These opportunities happen, nearly everyday. I am taking it slow.

King of the Breeders Cup ($2 variety)

2008-10-26T04:18:00.000-07:00

To quote Andy Beyer, "I am king of the world." In other words, I had a tremendous Breeders Cup Day. Moreover, I adhered to my own restrictive wagering guidelines in the process. But, this time, I actually found betting opportunities by handicapping.

Not only did I take down the Classic exacta, I scored a $10 win bet on Raven's Pass. The selections were made from their European Beyer figures (adjusted by -12). Both horses ran (turf) figures comparable to Curlin's 111.

In the second race at Santa Anita, a simple $2 win and place bet on Desert Code returned $106. At Belmont, one of two Monster Move horses ran second at 63-1 yielding $43 to place, $13.60 to show and a $334 exacta with the favorite. Not bad for a starting bank of $40. Add it up.

I wonder how the experts did? Get ready for the polytrack surface assault and excuses!

One complaint. NYRA's internet wagering operation apparently wasn't up to the challenge of handling the extremely large volume of the world series of thoroughbred racing. It was a frustrating technological mess. C'mon NYRA get your act together!

Thank God, the live operators are still around. Go, girls–and guys.

Breeders Cup 2008: On automatic

2008-10-24T08:26:00.000-07:00

For those of you who missed it,here--with edits--is a reprint of my Breeders Cup strategy--and why.

In 30+ years of playing the game, I have found a few absolute truths:

1. The most impossible races to handicap are the worst horses in the world.
2. The second most impossible races to handicap are the best horses in the world.

Don't listen to me. After all the seminars, the forums, the analysis and the hype just look at the results of the professionals--and, their list of excuses.

On the two Breeders' Days, I will look for value in the surrounding cards. I will play the Cup Races, casually and enjoy them. I plan to exacta box 27 in all the races and make a few win bets on second favorites.

It's and easy game and an easy day.

Re-energized

2008-10-24T05:39:00.000-07:00

Thoroughbred handicapping is a never ending story. Fact is, the more you know the less you know.

Some things which should be obvious are not. For instance, every time you make a wager, you are asserting--on paper (of the green variety)-- that you know something that will return a profit. Just how many times a day are you really so smart?

The challenge? Limit wagers to races where you have a genuine, provable opinion. In a game with so many variables, it's tough. But I am convinced this is key to success.

For the last few months, I have suspended betting to reacquaint myself with basic handicapping. An evaluation of my wagers showed that I was overlooking 'easy money' in pursuit of longer shots. I guess it's understandable because I am so excited about the longshot system I am promoting. However, human beings can walk and talk at the same time, so I had to prove it. Stay tuned. I'm on my way back.

Hole in my goal

2008-09-04T07:39:00.001-07:00

Handicapping will keep you humble.
In the search for a viable sister system to the 'monster move' I have discovered a hole in my game. It's not the first, probably won't be the last–merely the latest. They appear at random periods, until I notice. If I can ever plug all these holes up at the same time, maybe I'll achieve my $20 wagering goal.

This time, I have realized that I handicap more successfully when I don't consider price in the early stages of my evaluation. As a result, I don't cash in on virtual 'exotic' gimmes; the kind that pay $30 for two standouts in a race. Typically, they are two outstanding Beyer figures–one is odds on, the other is 6-1 or better.

Although I am usually a straight bettor when involved with the move. I have to realize that there's nothing wrong with an 8-1 or more exacta on two standouts.

Note to self: Plug it up. Suspend betting until I do.

'Suicide kings' create a milllonaire

2008-08-25T11:24:00.000-07:00

A jury of his peers wouldn't convict trainer Howard Tesher for the murder of Shaun Bridgemohan after the fiasco on Baron Von Tap in the seventh race at Saratoga on Travers Day. I know I wouldn't . Venerable trainer Kiaran Mcloughlin might also have a case for maiming jock Mike Luzzi. for his ride on Teide.

The race was won by improbable 88-1 Slambino, setting up a $1 million superfecta.

WTF? These two, supposedly professional pilots, tore through the opening quarters of a 11/6 mile turf race in :45 and 1:09. Maybe, it was something personal between them. Surely, they couldn't have been trying to win at that pace. Whatever it was, I have now downgraded the abilities of both jocks in my handicapping.

The 'suicide kings' have one grateful punter who should--at least--buy them both dinner.

LeSuprise at Le Spa

2008-08-13T11:44:00.001-07:00

He must be giggling all the way to the bank. Julien LeParoux, I mean. Of all the jock performances at this year's Saratoga meet, LeParoux must be getting the most satisfaction. After all, his stint at NYRA a while ago, didn't provide him with enough business to stay in New York.

He had to move his tack to New Jersey to earn a decent living and a respected reputation. Once finding his niche, the jock is a 'must include' on almost every ride on the Jersey circuit. How satisfying for his fans to finally get good prices at the Spa. As of today, he is winning at just above 15%, a percentage point above formidable Edgar Prado. He is also a significant factor in the return of trainer Wayne Lukas to the winners' circle. You go Julien.

Why Handicap?

2008-08-08T12:34:00.000-07:00

Why do you handicap races?
Seems a silly question with an all too obvious answer. 'To pick winners, stoopid!'
I've found there's more than one answer depending on your goal. Are you really handicapping for winners or contenders? Or are you trying to hit the pick six? Maybe most of your plays are exactas–a different scenario.

While it may seem like the same effort, each goal requires a different set of parameters. And, a different set of eyes.

Before handicapping, I look over a track's complete card. I throw out maiden claimers, first-starter fields, races shorter than 6 furlongs and longer than 11/8.

Then I scan the qualifying races for the monster move. If I find a few and can construct a play, I'm done.

No moves? I seek lone speed, or a strong second-finisher. If the price promises to be too short, I go back and evaluate the rest of the field for a possible exacta play.

This is three different ventures. In each case, my intention influences what I find.

Should I want to play a multiple race bet like a pick three, four or six I have to spend additional time evaluating the morning line favorites in each leg of the bet. Then, peruse a second level of contention, etc.

In this quick fix world, it would be nice to think that one handicapping effort will yield all the information you need for every wager. My experience indicates it doesn't happen.

Branch: Just 'Beautiful' at 40-1

2008-07-31T15:12:00.000-07:00

In a previous post, I questioned the decision of apprentice Kyle Branch in a race he rode my long shot selection third instead of a win. At the time, I promised to send him an invoice. Today, he paid the invoice in full with a luscious ride on monster move horse Beautiful LIfe, who paid $82. Coupled with another monster–Silver Babe–the exacta paid more than $400. The three moves in the race finished together for a $2000 triple return. Way to go Mr. Branch.

What is all the more puzzling is that 'Beautiful' had already run an improved last race off of his previous race move. How the public could let this gimme' get away is remarkable. Oh, that's right. They just looked at the Beyer numbers.

I guess nobody is reading my book.

FLUSH DAY CREATES NIRVANA
There is an emotion that's indescribable to folks who don't play horses. The closest I can get to a description is elation–maybe nirvana. All the pieces fall together; when unexpectedly you understand that in the next few minutes a long shot horse, that should be obvious to anyone is going to win the next race.

Only experience stops you from mortgaging your house, selling your clothes and belongings to wager on the good thing. Borrowing Base, 8-1, in Saratoga's eighth was that kind of horse for me. He won. My wager was more than usual. I am proud of myself for the control.

Why I am a $2 bettor: Monster Move version

2008-07-29T07:08:00.000-07:00

After a short wagering sabbatical, during which I did lots of study, review and self-evaluation, I finally made my first bets at Saratoga. My records showed that I do well there on Mondays. No explanation. Just the fact.

The $60 in my telephone wagering account was hungry for action. But, I was determined to approach the card with the same patience I display at the blackjack and poker tables. Besides, during this meet they have rolling daily doubles–my favorite exotic bet. Need to take it slow.

There were two monster moves that jumped off the pages at me: Like Now, 3rd and Cagey Girl, 4th. Like Now was repeating a previous trainer winning tact but was up against a tough field. Additionally, the short odds were unappealing. So, just three token double bets.

So, I concentrated on Cagey Girl, who looked like she might get an easy lead on turf. She was 23-1. Rider Mike Luzzi–one of the few jocks I believe has a clock in his head–slowed the pace down enough for Cagey to win wire-to-wire at $47.6, $17, $8.4 completing a $127 double. Wager? $6 Win, Place. Thanks Mike!

The move is a monster when it connects.

Only one other bet today thanks to recognition of a trainer move by another Mike that returned $$41 to win.

Done for the day. Making out a withdrawal slip, right now.

Why I am a $2 bettor: The rant

2008-07-25T13:27:00.000-07:00

If you're so @#$% smart...

Here's the kind of thinking I do, on sabbatical, while reviewing my wagering history:

I have always been amazed at how people who 'play' the thoroughbred 'game' are willing to be wrong. By definition, we are wrong most of the time. Yet, that doesn't stop us. Maybe it should, at least, slow us down.

How many times each day, each week, are you comfortable with being wrong at a cost of whatever your wagering unit is? It's different for each of us. I am still learning to wait for the right odds. My target is 9-1, but I'll happily accept 6-1.

When I am in Vegas, every other year or so, I can follow the blackjack rules to-the-letter. More often than not, I am happy with the outcome. Although I could never call myself a 'player' I hold my own in online poker by sitting and waiting for a superior hand. It may take 10 rounds. But, I do it. As a result, I usually have a seat at the final table.

I am searching for a similar approach to thoroughbred handicapping. The one thing I do know is that I still make too many bets.

Think you don't? Let's take the example of Curlin, admittedly the best horse in the world. Did you bet that he was going to win his first turf start, a few week ago? Based on what? Other than his reputation, there was nothing to suggest he should win. It was a bad bet.

We are offered bad betting situations every day. Success is directly tied to avoiding them. Translated for the hard core: If you don't know why you are betting and couldn't explain it–in detail–to a 5-year-old, maybe you shouldn't bet.

Nice idea; tough to do. Now, if I can just remember this rant when I start betting again.

Well-timed Break

2008-07-25T10:16:00.000-07:00

Perfect timing on my wagering sabbatical. Mother Nature continues to wreak havoc by soaking Saratoga. And, I've been able to update the horseplayerunited.com website. Why not take a look.

Additionally, I've decided to paper test a reverse 6-2-1 betting method with the monster move system. That is; 1 betting unit to win, 2 betting units to place, and 6 units to show--when the horse is more than 15-1 at post. If the selection is average (9-1), I'll bet 1 unit to win and 3 units to place. At a glance, it seems this might be a perfect solution.

Weather scratches at sloppy Saratoga ruined prices on two possible moves. At Monmouth Park, Sonic Boom ran third at 16-1 to pay $7.

Wednesday Monster Moves

2008-07-16T15:56:00.001-07:00

It's That Time, Again

2008-07-16T15:09:00.001-07:00

The excuse for it, of course, is "I'm only human." This is one of those periods of time, when I zig where I should zag, and vice versa. It's called a losing streak. It happens to every horse player. On paper, I should be making a mint. In actuality my sync is off.
I know from experience that it will change. I just have to be patient (grrrr). This means no bets until things re-align and I'm sure about my decision making.

Naturally, during my abstinence I can expect to watch (as I am writing this) a lead-pipe selection to win by open lengths for an $80 exacta with the only other horse I like in the race (grrrr). Tough-noogies. In the long run, I'll be happy I took this break.

It will save me money and hopefully teach me something. And, Saratoga is a week away. Better times, ahead.

SECOND TRY FOR HERTLER AT 17-1 FALLS JUST SHORT
(see previous post) Rock Key in today's ninth nearly got there. Keep plugging, John.

Close, no cigar

2008-07-11T20:15:00.001-07:00

Monster Move trainer John Hertler hoisted '1 for 64' apprentice Berrios Cruz on 7-year-old Classic Marilyn at 40-1 in Belmont's seventh race–an attempt to make his meet with one big score. The mare lead every step, but the last to pay $31.20 to place and $15.60 to show. She lost by one-half a length. Good try!

Maximizing the Monster

2008-07-10T21:09:00.000-07:00

Now that I've proven–at length–that the Monster Move System works, I can turn my attention to the most important part of the handicapping equation: wagering.

Picking long-shot winners is fine. How do you bet them for the best return on investment? Until now, and because of the prices I am getting, I have been wagering equal amounts to win and place, and even show (when odds are more than 15-1)

Part of the challenge will be to make fewer bets by fine-tuning my selections.

However, with all the exotic wagering opportunities offered at the tracks (daily double, pick three, pick four, etc. ) I plan to research the best method for maximizing my average 9-1 winners in those pools.

2008-07-09T17:04:00.000-07:00

Can't Lose, they say

2008-07-03T10:59:00.000-07:00

If your game is only about making money, the statisticians claim you can't lose. Then, they trot out a wagering system that proves as long as you bet the same kind of horse and have a large enough bankroll, winning is a foregone conclusion.

The basis for this folly is setting a dollar goal per-bet, add losses from non-winners and according to the odds of your next selection wager enough to win back losses and the stated profit. I'm sure it works on paper.

Somehow, though, I can't fathom making a $334 win bet after losing four or five in a row. God forbid the new wagering amount should this bet lose.

Another new variable

2008-07-03T10:47:00.000-07:00

The folks at Daily Racing Form (DRF) have added a new variable to the paper. Race shape or pace ratings must be something the fans have lobbied for.

They will probably an important part of the handicapping process. But, somehow, I must have missed the press release about what they are and how to use them. When I find out, I'll share.

The flash player instructional on reading the form has not yet been updated to include the new data.

Suggestion to DRF. How about doing a tutorial before–or simultaneously to–including new features?

Develop focus for daily play

2008-07-01T09:10:00.000-07:00

One main reason handicapping remains an art and not a science is the infinite number of variables that impact each and every race––recency, class, speed, trainer intention etc. etc. To tame the wild beast experts, logically (sic), introduced an overload of more variables---track bias, trips, variants, bounce. et al.
Even the Beyer numbers are only as good as a horses' trip, trouble, surface, bias etc.

To quote 'Family Guy's' Peter Griffith, '"Two words. C'mon!."

My point? No single approach to the game works enough to rely on.

It would seem, to win consistently, the player must narrow his or her scope down to a very few factors or situations. Then, concentrate wagering in those spots.

For example, handicap only horses that finished second last time, or beaten favorites. Maybe, sprints on dirt only in nw 1 Allowance races. Or, as suggested by the book 'How Will Your Horse Run Today?,' focus--only-- on the top two favorites.

Wherever you focus, digest it. Refine it. Master it. Once that's done, return to your specialty or slowly add one other approach.

In any event, it beats trying to be all things to all races.

An Easy Dilemma

2008-06-27T10:26:00.000-07:00

Two moves in the second at Monmouth against a 3-5 shot. What to do? Oh, that's right Pedro Cotto is riding Fly Pass at 8-1. No problem. Balloon Man to the hoop pays $18.40 (See yesterday's post).

You heard it here, again!

2008-06-26T14:35:00.000-07:00

It's only because I followed my own rules (take a break after a winning day) that I'm not upset. As I reported on June 13 and repeated yesterday, Pedro Cotto at Monmouth is winning with huge long-shots and requires a second look, automatically. In race two he won by open lengths with a 38-1 shot. He won the fourth at only 3-1, ran second in the sixth at 13-1 and ran second in the ninth, at a paltry 5-1. Mr. Cotto is currently Mr. Balloons.